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Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
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BQ ~ Sub 3:200 Votes - [0%]
3:40 to 3:490 Votes - [0%]
3:50 to 3:590 Votes - [0%]
4:00 to 4:094 Votes - [10.26%]
4:10 to 4:195 Votes - [12.82%]
4:20 to 4:2914 Votes - [35.9%]
4:30 to 4:408 Votes - [20.51%]
You'll be lucky to drag your fat butt across the finish line8 Votes - [20.51%]

2009-10-21 1:35 PM

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Subject: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
Thank you, BT Geniuses!!!


2009-10-21 1:41 PM
in reply to: #2471637

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Coach
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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
Ask me again on Jan 1st -- today probably something like 4 hrs or slower...
2009-10-21 1:44 PM
in reply to: #2471637

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
Yes, you need a lot more long runs and fewer shorter runs runnign the exact same pace everytime. That won't get it done.
2009-10-21 1:47 PM
in reply to: #2471647

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
I'm guessing for the next option you would have put down 4:40-4:50.   unless you are sandbagging those logs

of course at the end of December I'll change my mind and put something faster down,, since the above is for pure motivation
2009-10-21 1:50 PM
in reply to: #2471637

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Resident Curmudgeon
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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time

Not a whole lot to judge your potential by (recent stand-alone, full-effort races), so kind of in the dark about what's your potential.

Low volume, low intensity training from what I can see.

Given the voting options, I'd go with "You'll be lucky to drag your fat butt across the finish line." Of course, you have nearly three months to get serious about the training if you so desire.

2009-10-21 1:54 PM
in reply to: #2471637

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Pro
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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time

I looked at your race results.  Most everything is around 930mm.  Your marathon was well over that.  Anything can happen but I would say at best around 4:30. 



2009-10-21 2:02 PM
in reply to: #2471637

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
Based on your current training and recent race results it looks like about 4:30. However, you still have more than 2 months in which you can train more thoroughly. If you want a faster time you will need to run lots more, and you will also likely need to forego much of the upcoming holiday eating/drinking. If you could somehow increase your running to 40+ miles/week by about mid-November and keep it there until January 1 while maintaining the same pace you currently have for most runs and throw in a solid tempo run once a week, along with a couple 20 milers - you could go closer to 4 hours.

FWIW, look at my logs. I'm currently training for a marathon next May and laying the groundwork now. When I start the more specific training I will be in good shape to really push. IMO too many people do far too little prior to starting a marathon program and then wonder why their results aren't quite what they wanted.
2009-10-21 2:12 PM
in reply to: #2471637

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Runner
Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time

I don't know how much speed you can safely gain in two months.  I'm going to say not much.  Over 4:30 for a finishing time.

2009-10-21 2:13 PM
in reply to: #2471637

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Master
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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
looks like your almost at 30 mpw or so....

Id guess around 4:40-4:50

up that to 40-50 mpw, for a few weeks between now and race, and my guess would be 4:20-4:30

is there a prize?

Edited by cusetri 2009-10-21 2:13 PM
2009-10-21 2:14 PM
in reply to: #2471637

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
As I feel better, I will go faster and longer.  I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan.  Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers.  More speed and more volume.
2009-10-21 2:16 PM
in reply to: #2471734

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
cusetri - 2009-10-21 2:13 PM looks like your almost at 30 mpw or so....

Id guess around 4:40-4:50

up that to 40-50 mpw, for a few weeks between now and race, and my guess would be 4:20-4:30

is there a prize?


Yes, closest guess gets a guinness at the Black Rose in Boston when I BQ.


2009-10-21 2:17 PM
in reply to: #2471742

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time

pga_mike - 2009-10-21 3:14 PM As I feel better, I will go faster and longer.  I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan.  Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers.  More speed and more volume.

You're supposed to feel strong on those runs.  If you weren't, I'd say you're on the wrong plan.

2009-10-21 2:20 PM
in reply to: #2471742

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
pga_mike - 2009-10-21 3:14 PM As I feel better, I will go faster and longer.  I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan.  Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers.  More speed and more volume.


why change it now??  I wouldnt!  you're doing fine.


if you continue that plan and hit it, my official guess is 4:25:01...., but repost 1/1 as jorge said

good luck!
2009-10-21 2:48 PM
in reply to: #2471763

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
cusetri - 2009-10-21 2:20 PM
pga_mike - 2009-10-21 3:14 PM As I feel better, I will go faster and longer.  I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan.  Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers.  More speed and more volume.


why change it now??  I wouldnt!  you're doing fine.


if you continue that plan and hit it, my official guess is 4:25:01...., but repost 1/1 as jorge said

good luck!


Because I don't want to run a 4:25:01 if I could have run a 4:00:59
2009-10-21 2:49 PM
in reply to: #2471637

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
Your 10 miler and your most recent Oly run argue for about a 4:25-4:30, IMO.  The training you do between now and January will be critical to determine whether or not you can run the whole thing and at a relatively stable pace; it really won't make you a significantly faster runner than you are right now.  (That'll come with time.)
2009-10-21 2:52 PM
in reply to: #2471840

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time

pga_mike - 2009-10-21 3:48 PM
cusetri - 2009-10-21 2:20 PM
pga_mike - 2009-10-21 3:14 PM As I feel better, I will go faster and longer.  I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan.  Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers.  More speed and more volume.


why change it now??  I wouldnt!  you're doing fine.


if you continue that plan and hit it, my official guess is 4:25:01...., but repost 1/1 as jorge said

good luck!


Because I don't want to run a 4:25:01 if I could have run a 4:00:59

But how do you know what you could have run, when you haven't even done the race yet?

Switching up your plan now is not going to do a whole lot for you, in my mind.  It's not like you will be able to say "If I had just done the other plan, I would have finished xx minutes faster."

My advice:

Stick to your plan.  Run *your* race.  Don't worry about time or pace or any of that crap.  Your time will be what it will be.  You either run a good race, or you don't.  You are either prepared to run a BQ time, or you aren't.  You won't know until the race is done.



2009-10-21 2:55 PM
in reply to: #2471637

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
What pace are you looking to run/training for? On what do you base that?

Edited by the bear 2009-10-21 2:55 PM
2009-10-21 3:13 PM
in reply to: #2471844

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
tcovert - 2009-10-21 2:49 PM Your 10 miler and your most recent Oly run argue for about a 4:25-4:30, IMO.  The training you do between now and January will be critical to determine whether or not you can run the whole thing and at a relatively stable pace; it really won't make you a significantly faster runner than you are right now.  (That'll come with time.)

Red and bold excites me.  I was not prepared for the run at all at the Oly b/c of achilles injury which limited training.
My 10 miler was intentionally slow.  I was using it as a training run.  Ran the last 3 miles at 8:50 pace, which still felt conservative.
In my feeble mind, that means that 4:10 could happen!
2009-10-21 3:18 PM
in reply to: #2471902

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time

There is a big difference between a 10 mile run and a 26.2 mile run.

2009-10-21 3:18 PM
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2009-10-21 3:23 PM
in reply to: #2471742

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
pga_mike - 2009-10-21 2:14 PM As I feel better, I will go faster and longer.  I am on the Hal Higdon Intermediate I plan.  Perhaps I should switch over to the Intermediate II plan since I am starting to feel strong on my 7 milers.  More speed and more volume.


what is the difference in the plans,, More milage??  is it something that you could safely go to at this point.   I'd stick with what plan you have.  It's similar to the old bike expression,, it's not the bike  Plan, but the engine


2009-10-21 3:24 PM
in reply to: #2471920

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
Scout7 - 2009-10-21 3:18 PM

There is a big difference between the last three miles of a 10 mile run and a 26.2 mile run.



Fixed that for you.

I would suggest you seek out and run a 10K or, better yet, a half marathon, to give you some logical and reasonable basis on which to base your time goal and, subsequently, your training.
2009-10-21 3:27 PM
in reply to: #2471637

Expert
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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
tree fiddy


Of course that is just a south park reference, not an actual guess. 
2009-10-21 3:29 PM
in reply to: #2471933

Runner
Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time

the bear - 2009-10-21 4:24 PM
Scout7 - 2009-10-21 3:18 PM

There is a big difference between the last three miles of a 10 mile run and a 26.2 mile run.



Fixed that for you.

I would suggest you seek out and run a 10K or, better yet, a half marathon, to give you some logical and reasonable basis on which to base your time goal and, subsequently, your training.

Good points.  Agree completely.

2009-10-21 4:11 PM
in reply to: #2471902

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Subject: RE: Based on my training logs, predict my 1/10/10 Marathon Time
pga_mike - 2009-10-21 4:13 PM
I was not prepared for the run at all at the Oly b/c of achilles injury which limited training.


If you are prone to injury or have a previous running injury, and you're feeling good on the plan you are on now, i would stick with it.   Big picture here.  Achieving goals more slowly but staying injury free...

Edited by gopennstate 2009-10-21 4:11 PM
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