Predict My Marathon Time

How did your long run feel? You probably know this, but run those long runs real nice and slow. Assuming you did I think you could maybe break 4 1/2 hours. Be prepared for the burn at mile 21-22. Hal Higdon's novice and intermediate do not have enough mileage in my opinion. Just be prepared to gut it out 1 mile at a time. Everyone is in pain at the end.

Oh yeah, go out slow slow slow for the first 6-10!

Hard to say based upon your info.  You ran just under 2:10 in your HIM for the half marathon, based upon that McMillan puts you at around 4:34.  Since the HM was part of a tri with added fatigue I'm guessing that you will run around 4:25-4:30.

Have you run a recent stand-alone HM?  For me that is the best predictor of my fitness level.

Just a guess but 4:30 would be something to shoot for.....you may want to try to get some warm treadmill runs in to acclimate to running in warmer conditions. I trained for for Nashville in 2007 and trained all winter in Chicago...race day was 82 and I was not ready for that heat...Good Luck!!

Wish you all the luck in world, but if you are feeling gassed between miles 13-17, then prepare yourself for the hurt locker that awaits after mile 20.  Did my first full Mary in November and had run some decent 20 milers.  Wheels fell off for me at mile 22 with never seen before hamstring cramps.  Last 4 miles were not great, but a learning experience nevertheless.  I will definitely do another marathon.

4:30 is a good goal to shoot for.

I'd say go out with the 4:30 pace group then see how you feel at the halfway point.  If you're feeling good then ditch the pace group and crank it up to 9:30-10min/miles to the finish.

While it may be conservative to go with that 4:30 group there will be more races in your future and you can always go faster.  I don't speak from experience (my first marathon is Jan. 8), but I'd rather finish conservatively and feel good knowing I can go faster next time vs. go out too fast and end up walking the last 8 miles and finishing with a horrible time.

You could look at this chart and use a recent race to see what estimate time for your Mary.

Good Luck!

How long ago did you do your 70.3 and what was your 1/2 mary time?  Any running only races in the past few months?  If so, post the times and distance.

Then I'll make my guess.

EDIT: I see your results in your signature (dah).  I say 2:09 X 2 = 4:18 is my prediction.  Get on a treadmill and start running in some warm rooms during the week.  If it's warm and you're not acclimated I predict 4:29!  If it's warm (and even if it's not) start at the more conservative 4:25-4:30 pace and pick it up at mile 18-20 if you're feeling good.

Andi

If you ran solid in your HIM your VDot would be in the 34-37 range? Did you execute well for the HIM run? Any issues nutrition or pacing issues?  Many calculators can be used to estimate Mary times off VDot.

I love the VDOT... although it's mostly for training paces rather than true predictions.  That's what people always tell me anyway.   I've found in my experience that if I had a fairly recent 1/2 marathon, trained properly, and executed well that the VDOT was and is always an excellent predictor of marathons race times for me.

Andi

Is this your final long run? If not, I'll assume you'll do another one to get you at least one 20 miler. When I'm training, my 23 miler always becomes a pretty good predictor for my time. If I do my 23 miler in 3:15, I'm usually good to shoot for a 3:15 marathon time.

But I get in 4-6 at or above 20 prior to the race. And this is your first race.

4:14:53

You're going to see that 4:15 looming on the race clock and power it home for the final 100yds. 

I hope everyone else is right, but this is a prediction, not pace advice.  I predict 4:45, because the marathon is hard, really hard.  It's a lot to ask of your body to go faster than in training in your first marathon over 6-7 additional miles. 

Best of luck, no matter what enjoy your accomplishments.  It's a helluva of a thing you have done and continue to do.   

Thanks for the responses so far.  I had a pipe dream goal of going under 4:00, but I think I need to be realistic and shoot for being under 4:30. 

To answer a few questions that came up:

@beebs: Long runs were tough, but doable.  I never felt like I couldn't go more if I had to, but did feel a considerable amount of fatigue. 

@rick4657: Never ran a stand alone HM aside from in training.

@KathyG: Thanks for info on VDot.  Hadn't seen that before.  The HM during my HIM was pretty good all things considered.  No major nutrition or pacing issues.

@BikerGrrrl: Yes, this is my first stand alone running race aside from a handful of 5Ks and 10Ks.

@BernardDogs: I've got one more long run planned... not this Sunday but next.  Planning on doing 20 miles.

I was running my long runs similar to yours (around 10:30ish pace) for my first marathon, but my weekly mileage was about 5-10 miles higher.  I ended up running 3:58:xx that year, but after just running my 3rd marathon this past weekend, I now realize how lucky I was to run that time based on my training for that race.  It seemed like the stars aligned for that race.  I ran 3:53:xx this year even though my long runs were about 60-90 seconds faster, my weekly mileage was 10-15 miles higher, and I had more experience.

What I learned is that what your potential is...and what you actually run in a marathon can be totally different.  There are so many factors that go into your actual finishing time.

So my official, unprofessional analysis of you is that you have the potential to run 4:10 if everything goes right.  Chances are though, that something will not go right (weather, your taper, nutrition, cramps, etc) and you'll end up running 4:27.

Good luck and have fun.

I finished with a time of 4:19:38.  Based on this thread and my 20 mile long run, my goal was to go sub-4:30.  So I am very happy with my results.  The race went really well, nothing went catastrophically wrong (though I experienced hurt like I never felt before).  But I powered through, ran the entire time, and kept all of my mile splits with in 41 seconds of each other (fastest mile was 9:39, slowest was 10:20 but included a potty break).

If you are interested, you can read my full race report here: http://www.beginnertriathlete.com/discussion/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=421417

Awesome job and congrats on your race.

Build on this and go sub 4 in the next one.

Great job anytime you can improve on your pre-race goal is a win.

Congrats,

Great job. Hope you enjoyed the ride and keep on training.