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2013-07-12 1:14 PM
in reply to: jdl2012

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Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Originally posted by jdl2012

I am well aware that the 5k prediction is "potential".
I have run 4 marathons in a 6 month period: 6:40, 4:54, 4:40, 3:55(early June). The 5k was ran 2 weeks after the second marathon. I also have a HM of 1:37 ran 2 weeks before the second marathon. I average about 8 to 10 miles per week, on a good week. Injuries have prevented me from getting in the higher milage. So my question should be framed, 5k plus the necessary work per week, should be close to the calc predictor?


You have run 4 marathons in 6 months and avg. ~8-10 mpw? And you have injuries? Shocked am I.

If I read the above correctly, you have little hope of apporaching a time based on a 5k extrapolation in the near-term.


2013-07-12 2:10 PM
in reply to: JohnnyKay

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Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon

Originally posted by JohnnyKay
Originally posted by jdl2012 I am well aware that the 5k prediction is "potential". I have run 4 marathons in a 6 month period: 6:40, 4:54, 4:40, 3:55(early June). The 5k was ran 2 weeks after the second marathon. I also have a HM of 1:37 ran 2 weeks before the second marathon. I average about 8 to 10 miles per week, on a good week. Injuries have prevented me from getting in the higher milage. So my question should be framed, 5k plus the necessary work per week, should be close to the calc predictor?
You have run 4 marathons in 6 months and avg. ~8-10 mpw? And you have injuries? Shocked am I. If I read the above correctly, you have little hope of apporaching a time based on a 5k extrapolation in the near-term.

x2

There is no point in even fiddling with a calculator under those circumstances.

Calculators are more accurate when...

1.  You're comparing races of similar distance
2.  The race you are extrapolating from is within a reasonable time from the goal race (2-3 months at most).
3.  You've put in the necessary training time for the goal distance
4.  You're going into the goal race at 100% (healthy and rested)
5.  The race you are extrapolating from was performed to your potential (healthy, rested, etc).
6.  The course difficulty/weather of the races you are comparing are similar.

I don't know about #6 in the OPs case, but from what I have read so far, it seems like many of the other factors are not being taken into account well.

2013-07-12 6:11 PM
in reply to: jdl2012

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Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Originally posted by jdl2012

I am well aware that the 5k prediction is "potential".
I have run 4 marathons in a 6 month period: 6:40, 4:54, 4:40, 3:55(early June). The 5k was ran 2 weeks after the second marathon. I also have a HM of 1:37 ran 2 weeks before the second marathon. I average about 8 to 10 miles per week, on a good week. Injuries have prevented me from getting in the higher milage. So my question should be framed, 5k plus the necessary work per week, should be close to the calc predictor?


If you really want to do some comparing, McMillan also has SUGGESTED training paces listed with his calculator. You can check your paces with those and see how close you are. But that's less exact. Just a suggestion.

While I don't have a ton of experience at the marathon distance, I do know that over any distance, the faster you go, the tougher it gets to go faster. Can't think of a better way to phrase that...
2013-07-13 9:39 AM
in reply to: Paulford8

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Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Originally posted by Paulford8

I would really like this to be accurate My 1 and only 1/2 mary was April 1:53, was still getting in shape/ was out of shape. Says my 5K around 24 minutes which it was at the time, and my marathon would be 3:56. My 5K is now more like low 21s. Not greedy for my first full 26.2, I would take the 3:56, just want to be under 4 hours the first time.


Last time I ran a marathon, which has been 22 years ago (37 y.o.), my 5K time was 21-22 min range and I ran a 3:45 Marathon. So, it is doable with the proper training. I am training again for a Marathon now and want to BQ, but I have slowed A LOT over the years and am worried about making my time. I haven't put in the miles that I used to and I think that will be my downfall. Hope not, but it will be close. Anyway, I am trying not to look at the predictors too much and just concentrate on training as hard and smart as I can at this point and hope all the stars are lined up right for a good finish.
2013-07-13 12:07 PM
in reply to: JohnnyKay

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2013-07-13 12:12 PM
in reply to: jdl2012

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Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon

Originally posted by jdl2012 Injuries aren't from the marathons... other than blisters and purple toes. Since I am pretty new to running, new problems keep coming up, and I am limited with milage per week. If I can get out of this hole, and put in higher milage, it's nice to have a carrot (possible BQ).

then what are the injuries from?



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