Genetics determined??

Hard to answer your question without more information about your background and training.

While genetics provide a theoretical upper limit to one's performace capability, most folks never come close to that being their limiting factor.

Identifying one's potential is an area where a coach can certainly help.  A coach can objectively evaluate where you are now and what you will have to do to get where you want to be.  

If you get a chance, you should read the new book The Sports Gene by David Epstein.  One of the central themes discussed is the theory that basically anyone can be an Olympic champion with 10,000 hours of training.  Interesting reading. 

Good luck with your training,

Mark

Think long-term and set a plan with targets you expect you'd need to be able to achieve in order to KQ.  Then set about creating intermediate goals that will get you towards those targets.  Then do the work to hit those intermediate goals.  After actually doing the work for a few years, you will have a better idea about what your chances are.  At this point, there is no way for you or anyone else to know the answer.

Really fast running is genetic.  Fast running, not as much.  Like you stated in your summary of the article, everyone has the capacity to get faster....and some can get fast.  Only a select few can get really fast (15:00 5k and below).....it takes genetics, period.

A someone stated above.....you can KQ without the really good genetics, but it takes a lot of work.

You lost me there.

Really fast running is genetic.  Fast running, not as much.  Like you stated in your summary of the article, everyone has the capacity to get faster....and some can get fast.  Only a select few can get really fast (15:00 5k and below).....it takes genetics, period.

A someone stated above.....you can KQ without the really good genetics, but it takes a lot of work.

I think your first point is a good one....which is why I said "very fast" running is genetic, fast running can be accomplished.  On your other point, you can't rule out genetics when talking about training 30+ hour weeks.....there is a reason the overwhelming majority of people can't handle that kind of load....and it also has a lot to do with genetics.  Any time you get to those very far ends you have to look further than just "hard work". 

I spent about 10 years training and running retriever dogs in field trials.  I went into it with the idea that almost any "retriever" breed dog could be trained to a very high level....one in which they could compete with other similar breeds on a National level.  I was wrong.  We coveted certain bloodlines because in those litters of puppies were champions.  They had a drive and a set of genetically coded traits that could not be taught....and they were consistent winners.  Of course training played a role.....but I watched some very marginally competent trainers (of which I was one) take those genetically gifted dogs to a very high level.  It was like the difference between driving a Ferrari and a Shelby Mustang.

I am now involved with fast kids running and triathlon.  The fastest kids all laced up their keds in grade school and ran sub 6 minute miles....no training, no practice, nothing.....just run a mile in gym class.  By middle school nearly all of the kids were sub 5 minute...again, very minimal training or coaching.  Now, with coaching and training we are watching them as 15 and 16 year olds....sub 16 5K's and sub 4:30 miles....and dropping.

I understand the idea that saying genetics is a limiter knocks some people out of the gate needlessly..... because they may have other traits, especially in triathlon and other endurance events, that can compensate for the sheer lack of genetically built in speed.  That argument is certain and valid.....but you still can't count out genetics in those other traits....durability can also the be the result of genetics. 

 Can someone become a really good triathlete with great coaching and determined work even if they lack those "pointy end" speed genetics? Absolutely.  Can they become a VERY fast triathlete without the genes......probably not.  The same way you aren't going to go sub 15:00 in a 5K without them. The same way you can't build a Ferrari out of Mustang parts.

I use poor training as a way of rationalizing my poor performance.

Truth ^