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2013-10-31 8:02 AM

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Subject: Predict my marathon time!

Philly Marathon
Nov 17
http://philadelphiamarathon.com/files/Elevation_Chart.pdf

 

Logs are up to date

 (FWIW, McMillan predicts a 3:40 based on my recent HM)



Edited by trishie 2013-10-31 8:14 AM


2013-10-31 8:05 AM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!
I'll play,

3:58:06
2013-10-31 8:21 AM
in reply to: Hunting Triathlete

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!
3:46:02


I hope you prove us wrong!!
2013-10-31 8:46 AM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

3:38:30

It's a good course.  Kill it!

2013-10-31 9:05 AM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

3:42:33.  As it is said, so shall it be.

2013-10-31 9:44 AM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!
Wish I was running as fast as you. My uneducated guess after loading the course map (I see a few bumps in there) and your race results (very nice) into my personal computer (brain) is 3:45:46...8:37 pace. Good weather/temps and the excitement of the race could get you in earlier...good luck!


2013-10-31 9:46 AM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

Originally posted by trishie

 

 (FWIW, McMillan predicts a 3:40 based on my recent HM)

Not trying to be a buzzkill, just very curious since I am training for Philly as well. 3:40 is 8:25 min/mile. You seem to be hanging around 9:30's mostly in training, which is fine for most runs but I only see 2 runs that you refer to as pace runs. One of them was relatively short (4 miles) and was 8:49, and the other that you did hit 8:30 your comments seem to indicate you thought that was faster than planned. What is your planned race pace for training runs? What was your goal time prior to your recent half?

 

2013-10-31 9:56 AM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

3:46:52
2013-10-31 10:35 AM
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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

Originally posted by mrbbrad

Originally posted by trishie

 

 (FWIW, McMillan predicts a 3:40 based on my recent HM)

Not trying to be a buzzkill, just very curious since I am training for Philly as well. 3:40 is 8:25 min/mile. You seem to be hanging around 9:30's mostly in training, which is fine for most runs but I only see 2 runs that you refer to as pace runs. One of them was relatively short (4 miles) and was 8:49, and the other that you did hit 8:30 your comments seem to indicate you thought that was faster than planned. What is your planned race pace for training runs? What was your goal time prior to your recent half?

 

I'm not shooting for a 3:40 -- that's just what McMillan predicts based off a 1:44:39 HM (7:48 pace). My PR is 3:50:53 so I'd be happy with anything under that but I think I could go closer to 3:45. My recent 4 mi pace run was on the treadmill (as are most of my runs now) and for whatever reason a pace on the treadmill feels faster than the same pace outside. 



Edited by trishie 2013-10-31 10:37 AM
2013-10-31 11:04 AM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

3:47:30. Good luck and have fun!

2013-10-31 11:23 AM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!
3:42

3:39:xx if you make the last 6mi count.


2013-10-31 11:32 AM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

Originally posted by trishie

I'm not shooting for a 3:40

Why not?!?!?

Seriously, I don't want to talk you into doing something you're not comfortable with doing.  But, you've got plenty of miles in your legs to go out strong and see what you can do (and your longer races this year say you can do this).

2013-10-31 11:47 AM
in reply to: JohnnyKay

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

Originally posted by JohnnyKay

Originally posted by trishie

I'm not shooting for a 3:40

Why not?!?!?

Seriously, I don't want to talk you into doing something you're not comfortable with doing.  But, you've got plenty of miles in your legs to go out strong and see what you can do (and your longer races this year say you can do this).

That's why I was asking about training paces and race goal. 3:40 does seem doable based on volume, long run pacing, and races, just didn't see that many race pace runs in the log, and don't know what Trishie considers to be her race pace

2013-10-31 11:52 AM
in reply to: mrbbrad

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!
I guess my question to that is... how much (%) of your (her) runs do you think should have been done at race intensity?
2013-10-31 11:56 AM
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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

Originally posted by Leegoocrap I guess my question to that is... how much (%) of your (her) runs do you think should have been done at race intensity?

 

Percentage wise I don't know exactly, but maybe one out of every 5 to 7 runs, depending on mileage and volume, and not on a long run. Mostly easy, sometimes hard

 

ETA -but what the hell do I know, I am sidelined with PFPS.



Edited by mrbbrad 2013-10-31 11:59 AM
2013-10-31 11:56 AM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

I'm going to go slightly slower than McMillan at 3:41 but only bceause no one else has been here yet. 

I have found McMillan is very close for me as a race prediction tool.  It has almost nailed my standalone times to the second.

Enjoy the race!  It appears to be a very good course for a solid PR.



2013-10-31 12:39 PM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!
Based on a few of your 5K and 10 K races, McMillan seemed to be a fairly accurate predictor of your half marathon times, give or take a few minutes.

I'm going to say 3:43:xx.

Best of luck!
2013-10-31 1:42 PM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!
I'm going 3:43 with a negative split. I think she's got 3:40 potential, but mentally you have to commit to it right off the bat and there would likely be a lot of suffering the last 10k. There's nothing wrong with making sure you PR under 3:50 first and foremost and coming in strong.

That said, I took a more detailed look at Trishie's logs and it's quite amazing. Not just her run volume the last 6 months, but her run volume the last 24 months. She's on track to run almost 3500 miles from 2012-2013. That's insane. All her PR's have been coming down, and the proof is in the pudding.

Best of luck.
2013-10-31 1:57 PM
in reply to: Jason N

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

3:42.01. Only because someone else said 3:42. Any chance I get to meet you there? I'll be volunteering, no clue where yet.

2013-10-31 2:28 PM
in reply to: BrianRunsPhilly

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!
3:44:12

Good luck and have fun! I am sure you will do great
2013-10-31 4:32 PM
in reply to: dmbfan4life20

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!
I would gess 3:45:00, but you have the ability to push 3:35:00 with those solid 20 mile runs, faster 5k, 10k and half mary times. How hilly is the course, what kind of surface, how much wind does it usualy have for that time of day, how well do you predict you can manage the number of people in the race?


2013-10-31 7:53 PM
in reply to: Baowolf

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!
I predict you've got 3:45 in the bag.
2013-11-01 8:09 AM
in reply to: BrianRunsPhilly

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

Originally posted by BrianRunsPhilly

3:42.01. Only because someone else said 3:42. Any chance I get to meet you there? I'll be volunteering, no clue where yet.

Clearly this will come down to seconds, so my 3:42:33 will be the spot on winner.  But I do like the price is right methodology! 

2013-11-01 8:52 AM
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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!

I was going to say 3:42 even before reading the other responses, it's a gut feeling.  You've been training in hot/humid weather and Philly is a magical race with cool temps and great crowds.  It's a PR kind of place, for sure.   Have a great race!

(I've only done the half, so I can't really speak to the hills after 13.1 like these other guys can...)



Edited by BikerGrrrl 2013-11-01 8:53 AM
2013-11-01 8:56 AM
in reply to: trishie

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Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time!
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