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2014-08-20 3:51 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by gr33n Personally feeling more comfortable with short positions (SDS) in this market every day. If it was (and it was) liquidity driven on the way up, it makes sense that the prospect of that liquidity drying up only brings forward the opposite. I will add with weekly close in S&P below 1880. Big test for me comes at 1800. First objective for take profit 1650 possibly even 1450-1500. Kumbaya.

Your gonna have to wait....and likely keep missing out....at least through Obama's term.




Could be. Manipulation at its best.


2014-09-18 12:11 PM
in reply to: gr33n

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

2014-09-18 2:26 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by Left Brain

lol, congrats buddy

Every time I see the new market highs I think about you LB.  

2014-09-18 2:34 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by Left Brain

lol, congrats buddy

Every time I see the new market highs I think about you LB.  

Make sure you think about me when it all goes to hell. LMAO

2014-09-18 4:21 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by Left Brain

lol, congrats buddy

Every time I see the new market highs I think about you LB.  

Make sure you think about me when it all goes to hell. LMAO

I think you'll be thinking about me then.  lol

2014-10-29 4:09 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Looks like no more QE. Are we going to see a big crash coming?


2014-10-30 1:00 PM
in reply to: chirunner134

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Originally posted by chirunner134

Looks like no more QE. Are we going to see a big crash coming?


Obviously not today by 1:00 pm. Combo of revised GDP, positive outlook and solid earnings is trumping it:

S&P 500
1,998.80
+16.50 (0.83%)

Dow
17,208.90
+234.59 (1.38%)

Nasdaq
4,572.75
+23.53 (0.52%)

2014-10-30 3:03 PM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by ejshowers
Originally posted by chirunner134 Looks like no more QE. Are we going to see a big crash coming?
Obviously not today by 1:00 pm. Combo of revised GDP, positive outlook and solid earnings is trumping it: S&P 500 1,998.80 +16.50 (0.83%) Dow 17,208.90 +234.59 (1.38%) Nasdaq 4,572.75 +23.53 (0.52%)

Yeah, there has to be a catalyst somewhere to cause a huge swing and none of us know what that will be.  Earnings or GDP misses will only effect the market by a few percent.  The QE money is "in the system" to essentially hold it where it's at.  Now, if the banks have to start giving the money back, then it will be removed at a pace relative to the payback that will have an overall effect on the market.

2014-10-30 5:39 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by ejshowers
Originally posted by chirunner134 Looks like no more QE. Are we going to see a big crash coming?
Obviously not today by 1:00 pm. Combo of revised GDP, positive outlook and solid earnings is trumping it: S&P 500 1,998.80 +16.50 (0.83%) Dow 17,208.90 +234.59 (1.38%) Nasdaq 4,572.75 +23.53 (0.52%)

Yeah, there has to be a catalyst somewhere to cause a huge swing and none of us know what that will be.  Earnings or GDP misses will only effect the market by a few percent.  The QE money is "in the system" to essentially hold it where it's at.  Now, if the banks have to start giving the money back, then it will be removed at a pace relative to the payback that will have an overall effect on the market.

I don't think that will happen in the next two years while the Democrats work to stay in the White House. It's all they've got and Obama's Fed chairman will not let him down.   I'm all in! 

 

2014-10-31 3:06 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Quite the Halloween Treat this year! I am ALL IN in as well - er, maybe I should say about 60% IN - in equities anyway.

Happy Halloween!
2014-12-23 8:16 AM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Damn.....another down year.    



2014-12-23 9:11 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by Left Brain

Damn.....another down year.    

lol, I saw that this morning and just knew you would be posting in here.  
Congrats to all, but remember you haven't made anything until you sell, and nobody knows when the best day to do that is.  :-/

2014-12-24 6:14 PM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by Left Brain

Damn.....another down year.    

lol, I saw that this morning and just knew you would be posting in here.  
Congrats to all, but remember you haven't made anything until you sell, and nobody knows when the best day to do that is.  :-/

I didn't quite get to 14% this year,  so not quite up to many of the last few years......still......better then the 6-8% I was hoping for when the year started......merry x-mas I guess..



Edited by Left Brain 2014-12-24 6:17 PM
2015-08-25 8:23 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Crazy rollercoaster the past week.  Anybody playing?

I decided to stay out of this one.

2015-08-25 8:46 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Staying the course here.
2015-08-25 9:04 AM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Absolutely staying the course.  Got a disbursement from some over funding on a pension account a few weeks ago and dumped it all in as well. 

I'm happy to see some correction.  The market has been flat this year for the most part.  A correction will add some needed new money from investors who have been afraid to get in at the level we've been stuck at.



2015-08-25 9:12 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by Left Brain

Absolutely staying the course.  Got a disbursement from some over funding on a pension account a few weeks ago and dumped it all in as well. 

I'm happy to see some correction.  The market has been flat this year for the most part.  A correction will add some needed new money from investors who have been afraid to get in at the level we've been stuck at.

Yeah, without question if you're in a buy and hold plan you have to stay in and just tighten the seatbelt. 

2015-08-25 2:08 PM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

My broker said it was his job to keep me from selling in a panic when the market was down. I lost $57k in 3 days.....made $9k back this morning....then that dropped to about $6k now. I'm 52.5 and plan to retire at 55 so I am too close to the goal line for this crap. If I can recover some of my loss, I'm gonna bail and go like 80% ultra-conservative.

Edited by Rogillio 2015-08-25 2:08 PM
2015-08-25 2:22 PM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by Rogillio My broker said it was his job to keep me from selling in a panic when the market was down. I lost $57k in 3 days.....made $9k back this morning....then that dropped to about $6k now. I'm 52.5 and plan to retire at 55 so I am too close to the goal line for this crap. If I can recover some of my loss, I'm gonna bail and go like 80% ultra-conservative.

I think your brother is smarter than you.   

I'm 55 and can go whenever I feel like it, though I'll likely hold on until I get my kids out of high school in a few years, so we are similar.  The marke6t HAD to have a correction, there is virtually no way around it and a 10% correction happens on average every 18 months or so.  I think this is a really good thing.  Like I said on the other post, the market needed/needs some new money.  It's hard to entice investors when the market is sitting near all-time highs.  Now we can get some new money infused and ride those gains once this correction is flushed out.  Our economy is still growing, the Fed is still holding interest rates down, housing prices are on a pretty major upswing.  This is not 2008.

How much of a loss are you willing take?  You've got 2.5 years.  Even when the market tanked on '08 (and we're not in that boat) it came almost all the way back up in around 3 years.



Edited by Left Brain 2015-08-25 2:25 PM
2015-08-25 2:27 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Here is what my Financial Advisor sent out late Monday afternoon:

Hello all,

You may have seen the email early this morning around the markets last week and we also now have an extremely volatile day on the market today. I wanted to send you a note around my current thoughts and things we have already discussed this year:

1. There was a very good chance we were going to get more volatility this year and now it has finally happened. The recent correction is more based on China and currency issues than the Fed but certainly the Fed is on the mind of the market. It is also important to remember that on average we get around a 14% correction every year but the last few years we have not seen anything this deep. In 2011, we had a 19% intra year correction and the market ended up flat for the year. There were also a lot of days that year where we had 4%+ market swings. This morning the Dow was down almost 1,000 points and by mid-afternoon had risen within 100 points of even but ended the day down close to 600 points. Last November the S&P 500 pulled back more than 10% and within one month was up 13% from the lows. I would expect continued volatility and we may have to go back down and test the lows of 2014 on the S&P which was around 1820. These moves happen quick and timing them is almost impossible.

2. The US economy is still strong and although this correction could go deeper, the market still has a chance to end up positive for the year by year end. Here are some things that are going well:
a. The housing market has been very strong lately. New builder confidence is also as high as 2007.
b. The job market has been very strong adding about 235,000 jobs per month on average.
c. The weekly jobless claims have been at 40 year lows and pointing to continued good job gains.
d. The ISM Manufacturing levels point towards expansion although they have slowed lately.
e. The ISM Non-Manufacturing service sector has been on fire.
f. The VIX index has hit extremes lately which means there is a lot of fear in the market and often results in bottoms in the market.
g. Earnings have been generally better than expected outside of oil markets.
h. GDP might be revised up to 3% in quarter 2.

3. We do have concerns and here are some of them:
a. The slowdown in China and whether that can cause a much greater slowdown in the world economy.
b. The currency devaluations worldwide and strength of the US dollar which can hamper U.S. earnings.
c. Valuations for stocks are at the upper end of comfortable range.
d. Energy prices and industrial commodities in general have plunged.
e. The technical levels in the market have rolled over recently and will be easier for traders to move the market on technicals rather than fundamentals.

We are assessing the markets and the recent changes. For the most part we are looking to stay the course with the current allocation but may reduce some of the risk on the bond side and slight allocation changes on the equity side. In general though, portfolios are at the target risk amount for your given risk tolerance and part of being a long-term investor is riding out turbulent markets and not panicking. At this point, I don’t see any major systemic risk that would make me think that we are looking at a 2008 scenario, but a normal market correction. Unfortunately, corrections in the market happen and often necessary to allow the markets to move to new highs.
2015-08-25 2:45 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by Rogillio My broker said it was his job to keep me from selling in a panic when the market was down. I lost $57k in 3 days.....made $9k back this morning....then that dropped to about $6k now. I'm 52.5 and plan to retire at 55 so I am too close to the goal line for this crap. If I can recover some of my loss, I'm gonna bail and go like 80% ultra-conservative.

You guys know I'm not a buy and hold kind of investor in the stock market, but if I were the rule is 5 years.  If you've got 5 years to risk then you're fairly safe no matter what the market is doing.  If you go back in history it's hard to find a 5 year period where the markets didn't rebound in that timeframe.  Now obviously there's the murphy's law of the market tanking 3 days before you were planning to sell, but typically i'm the only one with that kind of luck so you should be fine.

With two and a half years left until retirement you have to look at what you need and how you're planning to park your money then.  You can put it in a money market account and be 100% safe, but make less than inflation for a return.  You can leave it in the market and make or lose 10%-20% in a year but be fairly safe over a 5 year period.
I currently have very little of my net worth in the stock market.  I have my 401k in growth stock mutual funds and my IRA is my "play account" that I use for option swing trading.  Other than that I'm invested in my business and on the personal side paying our house off.  When we're completely debt free then I'll likely start buying rental properties with excess cash, but I'm not there yet.



2015-08-25 3:49 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by Rogillio My broker said it was his job to keep me from selling in a panic when the market was down. I lost $57k in 3 days.....made $9k back this morning....then that dropped to about $6k now. I'm 52.5 and plan to retire at 55 so I am too close to the goal line for this crap. If I can recover some of my loss, I'm gonna bail and go like 80% ultra-conservative.

I think your brother is smarter than you.   

I'm 55 and can go whenever I feel like it, though I'll likely hold on until I get my kids out of high school in a few years, so we are similar.  The marke6t HAD to have a correction, there is virtually no way around it and a 10% correction happens on average every 18 months or so.  I think this is a really good thing.  Like I said on the other post, the market needed/needs some new money.  It's hard to entice investors when the market is sitting near all-time highs.  Now we can get some new money infused and ride those gains once this correction is flushed out.  Our economy is still growing, the Fed is still holding interest rates down, housing prices are on a pretty major upswing.  This is not 2008.

How much of a loss are you willing take?  You've got 2.5 years.  Even when the market tanked on '08 (and we're not in that boat) it came almost all the way back up in around 3 years.




My brother is not smarter than me.....but he got all the athletic genes. But I think we are mixing threads.

My broker is smarter.....this is what he does for a living. I went to college with him 30 years ago and I told him do what he needed to do given my desire to retire in 31 months and 1 week.....but who's counting.

Funny you mention 2008. A buddy of mine and I had about the same amount in our 401ks. Obama looked like he was goona win....so in mid Sept....,a few days into a modest slide, I bailed. I lost $50k or so but was out....completely. My buddy stayed in and ride it to the bottom. So then the question was when to get back in.....I waited too long send missed most of the recovery. In the final analysis, we ended up about even again! I jumped out and then back in and he rode it to the bottom and back.....and we ended up about the same. Crept I prolly have more gray hair because of it.

2015-08-25 4:46 PM
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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by Rogillio
Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by Rogillio My broker said it was his job to keep me from selling in a panic when the market was down. I lost $57k in 3 days.....made $9k back this morning....then that dropped to about $6k now. I'm 52.5 and plan to retire at 55 so I am too close to the goal line for this crap. If I can recover some of my loss, I'm gonna bail and go like 80% ultra-conservative.

I think your brother is smarter than you.   

I'm 55 and can go whenever I feel like it, though I'll likely hold on until I get my kids out of high school in a few years, so we are similar.  The marke6t HAD to have a correction, there is virtually no way around it and a 10% correction happens on average every 18 months or so.  I think this is a really good thing.  Like I said on the other post, the market needed/needs some new money.  It's hard to entice investors when the market is sitting near all-time highs.  Now we can get some new money infused and ride those gains once this correction is flushed out.  Our economy is still growing, the Fed is still holding interest rates down, housing prices are on a pretty major upswing.  This is not 2008.

How much of a loss are you willing take?  You've got 2.5 years.  Even when the market tanked on '08 (and we're not in that boat) it came almost all the way back up in around 3 years.

My brother is not smarter than me.....but he got all the athletic genes. But I think we are mixing threads. My broker is smarter.....this is what he does for a living. I went to college with him 30 years ago and I told him do what he needed to do given my desire to retire in 31 months and 1 week.....but who's counting. Funny you mention 2008. A buddy of mine and I had about the same amount in our 401ks. Obama looked like he was goona win....so in mid Sept....,a few days into a modest slide, I bailed. I lost $50k or so but was out....completely. My buddy stayed in and ride it to the bottom. So then the question was when to get back in.....I waited too long send missed most of the recovery. In the final analysis, we ended up about even again! I jumped out and then back in and he rode it to the bottom and back.....and we ended up about the same. Crept I prolly have more gray hair because of it.

LOL

I stayed in, and beat the crap out of the guys I work with who got out and tried to time getting back in.  I guess it depends on where you were invested.  There have been a couple of bumps along the way that were as bad, and at least one that was worse then this one, but I think our economy was not looking like it is today.  I like that the housing market is coming back in a fairly robust manner, and I like that oil prices are down, along with unemployment.  I guess, like I said, this feels NOTHING like 2008 so I can't imagine getting out now.  In fact, I think this is exactly was needed to push the market higher in the next couple of years.  At least that's what my Ouija board says.



Edited by Left Brain 2015-08-25 4:47 PM
2015-08-26 6:54 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
4 day loss $59k

I was up $9K yesterday by mid-morning.....but it took it all back and then some by closing bell.
2015-08-26 7:48 AM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
I haven't looked since Monday....but I was right at 90K down.....Monday late I moved 20K into a stock fund that has been good to me because the shares were cheap.Not skeered.
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