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2013-11-16 8:14 PM

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Subject: Stock Market

If you are not invested heavily in the stock market right now I'd like to hear why.  If you are, what are your thoughts on when this run will end. 

Our retirement accounts that are in mutual funds which  are 100% stock loaded have gained just over 30% since 10/12.......it's been one hell of a run if you stuck with it.



2013-11-16 9:03 PM
in reply to: #4899841

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
I have less than 50% of my 401k in the market right now. I don't like having that much even. I've said before I think this is 100% driven by the fed. Once they decide to taper I think we'll see a sizable pullback. I'll probably jump out whenever they announce a taper.
2013-11-16 9:15 PM
in reply to: JoshR

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

All of our accounts are not in the stock market....but we're near 75% between us (I think, because I only know a bit about her accounts).  Still, those accounts are just kicking arse!!

2013-11-17 3:11 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Yea, it's a tough call. In my retirement account, I pretty much hold the 60% stocks I have been. For my investment account. I have a few stocks that have done great, beating the market handily, but can't decide what to do with them now. Thinking we are going to get a pullback, but don't want to sell because they are good companies with good futures, which is why I bought them.
2013-11-17 7:31 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Burton Malkiel wrote a great book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street. I recommend it whenever I hear anyone telling me about their gains in the stock market.

2013-11-17 7:52 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

It will be interesting to see what happens when the fed takes their foot off the gas.   Another great study in government intervention in the markets, and why it nearly always ends in destruction.

 



2013-11-17 7:56 PM
in reply to: moondawg14

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by moondawg14

It will be interesting to see what happens when the fed takes their foot off the gas.   Another great study in government intervention in the markets, and why it nearly always ends in destruction.

 

I don't see that happening at least through the next election.........the dems can't afford it when all they really care about is keeping the White House.  They've got to have something they can point to as a success. LOL

2013-11-17 7:58 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

I was 80% in the market, 20% fixed/bonds.  a month or so ago I went 70/30.  I want to have some cash to move back in with-when/if it takes a correction.  Or to buffer some instability.  But depending on your horizon and risk tolerance, 100%-in is a viable position.

 

but yeah, the Obama stock market has done well.

2013-11-18 2:09 AM
in reply to: morey000

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Here's my reasons. Keep in mind I have made 0 this year on equities as these were also my reasons since about a year ago.
- I believe we live in a mean reverting world. That extends to financial markets as well. IMO mkts are overdue for a mean reverting move.
- IMO these stock market gains are liquidity driven (Fed balance sheet expansion) and not growth/profit driven. I believe the ability for liquidity to further float markets is negligible.
- Among other things I read a web site called zerohedge a lot. They relentlessly hammer home the theme of equity levels being overextended relative to employment, productivity, real gdp, and so on, ie unsustainable.
- Looking back there were bubble bursts in equities, commodities, and real estate. The 4th bubble will be debt. When that one bursts its game over.

On the other hand I belatedly understand the reasons for the rise.
- Endless liquidity.
- Who do you trust more (as in where do you put your money) government (Treasury bonds) or Corporate (AAPL, KO, MSFT, etc etc).

In the end we all have to judge based on risk reward. Do you think from current levels upside reward potential outweighs downside risks ?

Good luck.
2013-11-18 8:43 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

I'm exclusively a swing trader so I don't really care if the market goes up or down, I just prefer it to steadily go in one direction.  lol

You're absolutely correct that there are great returns on equities right now, but IMHO it's a very risky play because of the factors causing the rise.  The rise isn't because of profits, it's because there's nowhere else to invest.  Normally you have a nice balance between equities, bonds, and CD's but due to the fed pumping and dropping rates into the toilet the only place to invest is in equities so the stock market has been flying high on the Fed steroids.

It is unsustainable because something will eventually give and inflation will kick in and other investments will be better/safer bets.  When this happens it will end badly for equities, but there's no way to predict when it will happen.  So, you could have another 25% gain next year, and you could just as easily have a 50% drop next year.  When it does drop, it will likely stay down for many years trying to recover again.

There's a reason the investment pro's always tell you to diversify based on risk.  If you're sitting on a $5M portfolio and planning to retire next year it could easily turn into a $2.5M portfolio in a matter of months if you're all equities.  You have to diversify your risk to protect your capital at the expense of potential returns at some point for any sound retirement plan.

2013-11-18 8:53 AM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
We are in our early 50's with a decent sized portfolio and are about 50% equities (about 90% US and 10% international), 20% bonds (US, international, corporate and muni), 20% real estate (US REITs) and 10% cash. Our retirement funds piece of this is more heavily into equities. We hold no individual stocks. We shoot for a moderate to moderate-aggressive investing strategy with a goal of 20% market risk to control our downside as we are getting older.

Our advisors (fee based) see quantitiative easing beginning mid next year and the bond market recovering somewhat. International equities recovering too. S&P around 1880 or so. So, forecasting a decent 2014, but not gang-busters like the last few years. Will probably shift a bit more into bonds and international.

If next year can give us at least 50% of what we got the last 2 years, we are looking at early retirement :-)

Edited by ejshowers 2013-11-18 8:56 AM


2013-11-18 11:02 AM
in reply to: #4899841

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Not sure how long the roll will last, just hope that it keeps going for a while. That way I won't have to work until I am 90.
2013-11-18 11:09 AM
in reply to: rick4657

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by rick4657 Not sure how long the roll will last, just hope that it keeps going for a while. That way I won't have to work until I am 90.

The trick is always when to get out.  Looking back everything looks awesome when it's peaking like this, but today could be the all time high for all we know and everyone could just watch their profits evaporate for the next year.  
That's what's so crazy about this stock market game, is anything can happen.  A meteor could hit the USA tomorrow and the market could be 50% less by the end of the week.

2013-11-18 12:18 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by rick4657 Not sure how long the roll will last, just hope that it keeps going for a while. That way I won't have to work until I am 90.

The trick is always when to get out.  Looking back everything looks awesome when it's peaking like this, but today could be the all time high for all we know and everyone could just watch their profits evaporate for the next year.  
That's what's so crazy about this stock market game, is anything can happen.  A meteor could hit the USA tomorrow and the market could be 50% less by the end of the week.

Well, then keep your tin foil hat on......it could save your life!!

2013-11-18 1:02 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by rick4657 Not sure how long the roll will last, just hope that it keeps going for a while. That way I won't have to work until I am 90.

The trick is always when to get out.  Looking back everything looks awesome when it's peaking like this, but today could be the all time high for all we know and everyone could just watch their profits evaporate for the next year.  
That's what's so crazy about this stock market game, is anything can happen.  A meteor could hit the USA tomorrow and the market could be 50% less by the end of the week.

Well, then keep your tin foil hat on......it could save your life!!

haha, your so silly.  That's what the tinfoil lined bunker is for, duh!

2013-11-19 5:18 PM
in reply to: #4900533

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Like tuwood I'm mostly a swing trader though I do hold a couple nice dividend stocks. The swing with the market though can bite you in the arse when you are on the wrong side. I've been stung on some options a few times. Also, I've been thinking for some time that the market is over inflated. That cost me earlier this year. I've learned don't fight the Fed! QE will stop and when it does it won't be pretty. I don't think we are close yet though as Yellen has stated she intends to continue and sees no market bubble. I think the market will correct prior to interest rates rising. Last month I moved 25% of my retirement to physical gold. I see much less downside with gold then I see with the market right now.


2013-11-19 5:36 PM
in reply to: rayd

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by rayd Like tuwood I'm mostly a swing trader though I do hold a couple nice dividend stocks. The swing with the market though can bite you in the arse when you are on the wrong side. I've been stung on some options a few times. Also, I've been thinking for some time that the market is over inflated. That cost me earlier this year. I've learned don't fight the Fed! QE will stop and when it does it won't be pretty. I don't think we are close yet though as Yellen has stated she intends to continue and sees no market bubble. I think the market will correct prior to interest rates rising. Last month I moved 25% of my retirement to physical gold. I see much less downside with gold then I see with the market right now.

You can say that again.  Been there done that many times.  

I used to spend a lot of time analyzing technicals and laying on complex spreads.  I finally ditched that approach and simply trade weekly index ETF options based on the 50 and 20 day MA.  If the 20 day MA is above the 50 then I go long for the week with a .90+ delta call or if the 20 day MA is below the 50 day then I go short with a .90+ delta put.  Basically riding the mini trend and the deep ITM option minimizes my down side and I have very little time decay.

This approach has worked pretty well for me the last year, but a flat choppy market could still jack me up.

2013-11-21 3:24 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
The Dow Jones industrial average is closing above 16,000 for the first time as encouraging news on the job market pushes stocks higher.

Applications for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since September. The number of applications is close to where it was before the Great Recession.

The Dow rose 109 points, or 0.7 percent, to 16,010 Thursday.

The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 14 points, or 0.8 percent, to 1,795. The Nasdaq composite rose 47 points, or 1.2 percent, to 3,969.

2013-11-21 3:45 PM
in reply to: ejshowers

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by ejshowers The Dow Jones industrial average is closing above 16,000 for the first time as encouraging news on the job market pushes stocks higher. Applications for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since September. The number of applications is close to where it was before the Great Recession. The Dow rose 109 points, or 0.7 percent, to 16,010 Thursday. The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 14 points, or 0.8 percent, to 1,795. The Nasdaq composite rose 47 points, or 1.2 percent, to 3,969.

And the Fed has TOLD you it will keep the economy propped up and recovering at least until after the 1st quarter of next year.  It doesn't matter if you think this is a real recovery or not.....there is certainly real money to be made in the market right now.  I'lll probably move quite a bit of my profits from this year.....it's more than I made working.

2013-11-21 3:49 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by ejshowers The Dow Jones industrial average is closing above 16,000 for the first time as encouraging news on the job market pushes stocks higher. Applications for unemployment benefits dropped last week to the lowest level since September. The number of applications is close to where it was before the Great Recession. The Dow rose 109 points, or 0.7 percent, to 16,010 Thursday. The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 14 points, or 0.8 percent, to 1,795. The Nasdaq composite rose 47 points, or 1.2 percent, to 3,969.

And the Fed has TOLD you it will keep the economy propped up and recovering at least until after the 1st quarter of next year.  It doesn't matter if you think this is a real recovery or not.....there is certainly real money to be made in the market right now.  I'lll probably move quite a bit of my profits from this year.....it's more than I made working.

You are correct sir, and good call on your profits. IMHO

It's really weird because it's so hard to read the market.  One day we hear great news and it goes up, and the next day we hear really bad news and it goes up even higher because everyone thinks the Fed well keep pumping longer because of the bad news.  lol

Then sometimes we hear really good news and the market tanks because of the fear of the fed tapering earlier.

2013-11-27 10:07 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Thanks LB.  

I've been fairly busy with work so I haven't been playing in the market the last couple of months and had everything in cash.  This thread got me to checking things out again and I went through all of my normal technical analysis and I considered shorting QQQ on Monday.  However, I thought to myself.  You know, the market is just going insane and that LB guy is the eternal optimist so I'm going to go against trying to time the top and ride the trend. I bought a bunch of NOV5 13 QQQ calls and three days later I have a near 40% gain. on a dollar move up on QQQ.  haha

This market is so funny



2013-11-27 10:15 AM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

HA!! Good for you dude!

I'm sticking with it for the forseeable future.  I don't think this run is anywhere near the top.  Hell, at this point I can be worng as hell and would have still made a nice profit unless the market tanks 40% or more.  What's funny to me is how many people have stayed out and missed this run.....and now they want in, which helps keep it propped up as well.

 



Edited by Left Brain 2013-11-27 10:16 AM
2013-11-27 10:41 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
Originally posted by Left Brain

HA!! Good for you dude!

I'm sticking with it for the forseeable future.  I don't think this run is anywhere near the top.  Hell, at this point I can be worng as hell and would have still made a nice profit unless the market tanks 40% or more.  What's funny to me is how many people have stayed out and missed this run.....and now they want in, which helps keep it propped up as well.

 




Just out of curiosity, at what point are you going to become bearish? What is your signal to take your winnings and go home?
2013-11-27 10:51 AM
in reply to: JoshR

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Subject: RE: Stock Market

Originally posted by JoshR
Originally posted by Left Brain

HA!! Good for you dude!

I'm sticking with it for the forseeable future.  I don't think this run is anywhere near the top.  Hell, at this point I can be worng as hell and would have still made a nice profit unless the market tanks 40% or more.  What's funny to me is how many people have stayed out and missed this run.....and now they want in, which helps keep it propped up as well.

 

Just out of curiosity, at what point are you going to become bearish? What is your signal to take your winnings and go home?

As you said earlier, you believe this is being driven by the Fed.....and I tend to agree. (although this is certainly not a "bubble" like the dot com and housing market were....the averages are staying within historica margins)  I think I'm out the day they are....the way I look at it, the signal could be pretty good.....maybe the market loses 10% or so right off the bat.....then get out....you're still way ahead of the game.  All you're doing now is sitting on the sidelines while they TELL YOU what they're doing.  To me it's crazy not to take them up on the offer.  Hell, with the way this administration is, they could keep their foot on the gas right through the next Presidential election.....it's the only really good news they'll be able to poiint to the way it's looking, they can't afford to stop now.

2014-01-10 7:55 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: Stock Market
New year. Same river. Same boat without a paddle for me for me. Its all cash and all or nothing bets in Medical Marijuana companies. If you like all or nothing bets with 10:1 potential MJNA CBIS are 2 to have a look at.
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