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2014-10-15 11:42 AM
in reply to: crowny2

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by crowny2

I think if a town in Liberia can figure it out, then so can we.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/goatsandsoda/2014/10/06/354054915/firestone-did-what-governments-have-not-stopped-ebola-in-its-tracks 

Still not worried no matter how many places tell me I should be, including those that should know better in the medical community.

Disclaimer: I am not an MD but I am a microbiologist.  

I'm pretty much in agreement but I was thinking this morning, One person came in with it, a health care worker contracted, now a week later another health care worker has it,,,, let's see,

week 1 , 1 person

week 2, 2 people

week 3, 4 people?

week 4, 8 people?

week 5, 16 people?

week 6, 32 people?

week 7, 64 people?

week 8, 132 people?

week 9, 264 people?

week 10 528 people?

week 11 1,000+

week 12 2,000+

week 13 3,000+

week 14 6,000+

week 15 12,000+

week 16 24,000+

week 17, 48,000+

week 18, 98,000+

week 19, 200,000+

week 20, 400,000+

week 21, 800,000+

week 22, 1,600,000+

week 23, 3,000,000+

week 24, 6,000,000

week 25, 12,000,000

week 26, 24,000,000

The magic of compounding ebole



2014-10-15 11:50 AM
in reply to: #5056361

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Champion
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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!
Thing is that it doesn't spread that way. It hasn't spread that way in Liberia where this came from. There are other organisms (measles) that are significantly more contagious than Ebola.
2014-10-15 12:03 PM
in reply to: crowny2

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by crowny2 Thing is that it doesn't spread that way. It hasn't spread that way in Liberia where this came from. There are other organisms (measles) that are significantly more contagious than Ebola.

 

On a serious note, I feel better you telling me that than our President or the CDC.

2014-10-15 12:20 PM
in reply to: crusevegas

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Sensei
Sin City
Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

From MY limited understanding, the same reason it's SO scary is also the reason it's less of a true problem.  It kills so fast after the onset of symptoms, it doesn't have the chance to spread.  People almost quarantine themselves because they feel so bad...

If this stuff could pass through the air even when there were no symptoms shown, and someone could be contagious without knowing for weeks OR have cold like symptoms but still be functional, therefore, out in public, traveling, working?  That would be a big problem.  They keep scaring people about how the new health worker traveled before showing symptoms.  I just don't think that matters.  It's like if you flew with someone with HIV.  You are just not going to get it that way.

Basically, if it was more like Captain Trips (if you know The Stand) - THAT would be scary.  The fact that it's not spreading in Africa like wildfire with probably (no offense meant) a less sophisticated medical infrastructure than the European countries or the States probably means that if careful, it's probably pretty easily controlled.

If someone could weaponize it and disperse some aerosol version?  We could be in trouble.

I'm sure the people that got sick (and I feel absolutely TERRIBLE for them.  Trying to help and end up potentially dying for the effort) probably caught it due to some mistake in quarantine protocol.  I pray the blood transfusion from the doctor who beat it works for Nina Pham.

 

2014-10-15 12:44 PM
in reply to: Kido

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!
The reality is that it would not take very many people in various locations to over burden the healthcare system.
2014-10-15 1:36 PM
in reply to: NXS

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by NXS The reality is that it would not take very many people in various locations to over burden the healthcare system.

See, that's the kind of statement that causes people to act stupid and be scared.....I'm sorry, yes, it would take quite a few people to over burden the health care system.  This is not our first rodeo with Ebola....including an airborne strain in the 80's.  Is it news?  Ok, what isn't.  Is it something that is going to wipe out a number of people here in the U.S. or even cause a significant burden to our daily lives?  Not a single chance in hell. 



2014-10-15 2:14 PM
in reply to: #5060113

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Champion
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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!
Keep in mind those that have contracted it here are those that have had contact with the infected at their highest level of contagiousness. This is when the infectious viral load is at its highest. And it is only contracted when coming in contact with bodily fluids. Vomit and diarrhea are going to have the highest potential for sending it farther, especially vomit as it can temporarily aerosolize the virus. Look at infection potential for norovirus exposure based on distance from the vomit epicenter.

Long story short, the ability for this virus to spread significantly in a relatively clean country like ours is very minimal.
2014-10-15 2:16 PM
in reply to: #5060191

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!
Compared to other non-developed countries.
2014-10-15 5:01 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by NXS The reality is that it would not take very many people in various locations to over burden the healthcare system.

See, that's the kind of statement that causes people to act stupid and be scared.....I'm sorry, yes, it would take quite a few people to over burden the health care system.  This is not our first rodeo with Ebola....including an airborne strain in the 80's.  Is it news?  Ok, what isn't.  Is it something that is going to wipe out a number of people here in the U.S. or even cause a significant burden to our daily lives?  Not a single chance in hell. 

 

Didn't you see my computer modeling and compounding Ebole (that's how I heard pronounced anyway) equation..... Runnnnnnnnn

2014-10-15 5:05 PM
in reply to: Kido

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by Kido

From MY limited understanding, the same reason it's SO scary is also the reason it's less of a true problem.  It kills so fast after the onset of symptoms, it doesn't have the chance to spread.  People almost quarantine themselves because they feel so bad...

If this stuff could pass through the air even when there were no symptoms shown, and someone could be contagious without knowing for weeks OR have cold like symptoms but still be functional, therefore, out in public, traveling, working?  That would be a big problem.  They keep scaring people about how the new health worker traveled before showing symptoms.  I just don't think that matters.  It's like if you flew with someone with HIV.  You are just not going to get it that way.

Basically, if it was more like Captain Trips (if you know The Stand) - THAT would be scary.  The fact that it's not spreading in Africa like wildfire with probably (no offense meant) a less sophisticated medical infrastructure than the European countries or the States probably means that if careful, it's probably pretty easily controlled.

If someone could weaponize it and disperse some aerosol version?  We could be in trouble.

I'm sure the people that got sick (and I feel absolutely TERRIBLE for them.  Trying to help and end up potentially dying for the effort) probably caught it due to some mistake in quarantine protocol.  I pray the blood transfusion from the doctor who beat it works for Nina Pham.

 

 

Agreed Jimbo, it's like shark attacks, people aren't accustomed to it and don't understand it. 

Pretty nasty if it happens but what are the odds?

2014-10-16 6:32 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!
Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by NXS The reality is that it would not take very many people in various locations to over burden the healthcare system.

See, that's the kind of statement that causes people to act stupid and be scared.....I'm sorry, yes, it would take quite a few people to over burden the health care system.  This is not our first rodeo with Ebola....including an airborne strain in the 80's.  Is it news?  Ok, what isn't.  Is it something that is going to wipe out a number of people here in the U.S. or even cause a significant burden to our daily lives?  Not a single chance in hell. 




Well that is from a friend of mine (an epidemiologist) who is faculty at a major medical school. You can believe what (who) you want. So far the gov. (CDC) hasn't been right on much of what they said; won't show up here, can only get it through direct contact with body fluids, protocols in place, any hospital can treat someone with ebola, etc.


2014-10-16 7:25 AM
in reply to: #5060192

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!
And I know a virologist who works closely with an east coast medical hospital and school who says the opposite. so we have a tie?
2014-10-16 8:28 AM
in reply to: crowny2

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!
Originally posted by crowny2

And I know a virologist who works closely with an east coast medical hospital and school who says the opposite. so we have a tie?


Like I said, believe who or what you want.
2014-10-16 8:46 AM
in reply to: NXS

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Shep did a pretty good job of pointing out how ridiculous the hysteria is.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/15/shepard-smith-ebola_n_5992510.html

I'm flying to Boston with my son this Saturday and flying to Orland in 3 weeks with my whole family.  My biggest fear is the airline losing my luggage. 

2014-10-16 8:58 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by tuwood

Shep did a pretty good job of pointing out how ridiculous the hysteria is.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/15/shepard-smith-ebola_n_5992510.html

I'm flying to Boston with my son this Saturday and flying to Orland in 3 weeks with my whole family.  My biggest fear is the airline losing my luggage. 

Tony....you've gone soft.    I expected you to give some instruction on how to wrap your house in plastic sheeting.

2014-10-16 9:15 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by Left Brain

Originally posted by tuwood

Shep did a pretty good job of pointing out how ridiculous the hysteria is.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/15/shepard-smith-ebola_n_5992510.html

I'm flying to Boston with my son this Saturday and flying to Orland in 3 weeks with my whole family.  My biggest fear is the airline losing my luggage. 

Tony....you've gone soft.    I expected you to give some instruction on how to wrap your house in plastic sheeting.

lol, It's my new Libertarian side where I'm skeptical of anyone who wants to "scare" me.  How much do you want to bet there will be a new "tax" to combat Ebola in America after the election?  ;-)
Zuckerberg has already voluntarily paid the tax before it was announced.



2014-10-16 9:35 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Champion
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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by tuwood

Shep did a pretty good job of pointing out how ridiculous the hysteria is.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/15/shepard-smith-ebola_n_5992510.html

I'm flying to Boston with my son this Saturday and flying to Orland in 3 weeks with my whole family.  My biggest fear is the airline losing my luggage. 

that is pretty likely to happen especially if you are flying delta :-D

just stay away from people's bodily fluids!

2014-10-16 12:39 PM
in reply to: #5060390

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Champion
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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!
Tony

Pretty good link. Unfortunately the scaremongers are getting more coverage as it is sexier. Long story short, I think by thanksgiving this will be behind us, for the most part. Maybe one or two more infections but not many more than that. That is what makes gut tells me and I hope I'm right. I am most of the time.
2014-10-16 12:49 PM
in reply to: #5060539

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!
On of the better thought out articles I've read and I have read a lot. I'm now in charge of our message regarding the organism. There are other articles too that maybe I'll get the time to post later that also do a good job of addressing the organism and attempt to stem the spread of "fearbola".

http://www.travelpulse.com/opinions/column/ebola-hysteria-will-only...
2014-10-16 12:50 PM
in reply to: crowny2

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by crowny2 Tony Pretty good link. Unfortunately the scaremongers are getting more coverage as it is sexier. Long story short, I think by thanksgiving this will be behind us, for the most part. Maybe one or two more infections but not many more than that. That is what makes gut tells me and I hope I'm right. I am most of the time.

Yeah, I agree.  The spread will be very localized to medical treatment folks because the only time it's not really contagious until the later stages of the disease.  In underdeveloped countries without medical care the sick are often left to die in their home which ultimately infects their whole family.  That won't happen in America.

I also think that a big part of the "fear mongers" is the election.  The Repubs want to blame Obama for not doing enough to protect us all from this "outbreak".  So of course the worse the outbreak is the better they feel it is politically.  So sad.

 

2014-10-16 1:01 PM
in reply to: crowny2

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by crowny2 On of the better thought out articles I've read and I have read a lot. I'm now in charge of our message regarding the organism. There are other articles too that maybe I'll get the time to post later that also do a good job of addressing the organism and attempt to stem the spread of "fearbola". http://www.travelpulse.com/opinions/column/ebola-hysteria-will-only...

Fearbola...  haha, i love that.

There is no question we have a Phase 6 Pandemic of Fearbola.  ;-)



2014-10-16 1:36 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Sensei
Sin City
Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by tuwood

Shep did a pretty good job of pointing out how ridiculous the hysteria is.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/15/shepard-smith-ebola_n_5992510.html

I'm flying to Boston with my son this Saturday and flying to Orland in 3 weeks with my whole family.  My biggest fear is the airline losing my luggage. 

Thanks for the link.  Found it on youtube and shared it on FB.  It's EXACTLY what I have been trying to say to people, but maybe now a talking head said it, they will believe me.

2014-10-16 1:50 PM
in reply to: Kido

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

I feel pretty safe, I dumped a bucket of ice water over my head a few weeks ago, so I should be good.

2014-10-17 2:41 PM
in reply to: Kido

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

We now have an Ebola Czar. 

http://news.yahoo.com/white-house-says-expects-ebola-czar-job-five-183402086.html

So what I'm not clear on is why this is expected to be a 5-month position.  Are they anticipating a breach of protocol by the czar?

2014-10-17 3:05 PM
in reply to: SevenZulu

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Subject: RE: EBOLA on American Soil!!!!

Originally posted by SevenZulu

We now have an Ebola Czar. 

http://news.yahoo.com/white-house-says-expects-ebola-czar-job-five-183402086.html

So what I'm not clear on is why this is expected to be a 5-month position.  Are they anticipating a breach of protocol by the czar?

Or they expect it to be resolved completely in 5 months.  Or less.  I'm leaning to less personally. 

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