General Discussion Triathlon Talk » Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon? Rss Feed  
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2014-11-30 5:13 PM


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Subject: Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?
I just bought my first tri bike, I am a swimmer not a biker :-) so please bare with me. When choosing and buying my first bike many factors came into consideration, most of them related to fitting and having a reliable bike shop available in the area, of course price was also a determinant factor.

I chose Cervelo, the P2 appeared to fit the bill, however I knew Cervelo had two frames on 2014, my concern was to get the newer frame, and I was happy to get the one with the Dura Ace shifter, now I realized that Cervelo also had a 11 speed model with the new frame and I ended up getting the one with the Shimano 10 Speed components.

My question is how fast the 10 speed will become obsolete in terms of availability of higher end parts ( for 105 and up)?
Are the newer aero wheels backward compatible? Is there any way I could get a pair that will work with a 11 speed drive train (assuming I will upgrade to 11 speed in the next 5 years). I am just a little annoyed, I thought that I would be future proof buying a Cervelo and I neglected the 11 speed upgrade, I thought they were just running parallel, I did not know 11 was actually replacing 10.

Thanks!
Edward


2014-11-30 6:15 PM
in reply to: EdwardNJ

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Subject: RE: Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?
I have an 8 speed mountain bike and recently had to purchase a new shifter, while I didnt have a whole lot of choice (no XT or XTR) I still was able to buy a shifter that works great. For a bike made in 1997 Im not complaining.

As far as 10 Vs 11speed - from what I have read the 11speed cassette is wider which means you might need a different wheel. If buying a new wheel now I would ask for an 11speed compatible wheel but see if it can be run with a spacer and a 10 speed cassette. It seems that there is a whole lot of "it depends" and even an older pre 11 speed wheel might be able to run and 11 speed cassette

Here is a link with a little more info:

http://velonews.competitor.com/2014/07/bikes-and-tech/technical-faq...

Personally I wouldnt worry about it too much, I also have a Cervello with a 10speed drive train and I feel confident that parts will be available for a long time. I was actually surprised to see that the Specialized Allez is still available with an 8speed driver train! (admittedly its only Shimano Claris)
2014-11-30 6:45 PM
in reply to: 0


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Subject: RE: Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?
Hi Dave,
Great info, thanks!

Edited by EdwardNJ 2014-11-30 6:48 PM
2014-12-01 6:10 AM
in reply to: EdwardNJ

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Subject: RE: Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?
I bet you've worn out all your 10 speed parts before the spare parts become obsolete. Although Shimano is significantly faster to obsolete things than Campagnolo… you can still get Campy 6 speed parts. :-)
2014-12-01 1:48 PM
in reply to: EdwardNJ

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Subject: RE: Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?

10 speed won't be obsolete soon in the sense that you can't get parts.  Pretty much all 2015 bikes with 105 or Rival and higher will come with 11 speed, but that doesn't mean you need to convert just yet.  Most race wheels made in the last 3 years are 10 and 11 speed compatible as long as you have a spacer.  In fact, most of them are 9/10/11 speed compatible.

So until the market goes to say 12 or 13 speed (which probably isn't possible without changing the width of the rear axle)...you should be fine as far as wheel compatibility.  11 speed doesn't actually make you faster.  It just gives you an extra gear option.  Pro riders from the 90's were riding just fine on 8 and 9 speed.

2014-12-02 10:25 AM
in reply to: EdwardNJ


3

Subject: RE: Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?
Thank you guys! I assume it won't be a problem to find 10 speed cassettes and chains. However, worst case scenario, if I crash and I need new shifters and one of the derailleurs, would it be that expensive to switch the components to 11 speed? I am just wondering because I have no idea. Including labor, how much would it cost to "upgrade" to a 11 speed system (105 or Ultegra) within the next two years? (or once this 10 speed parts become harder to find at a reasonable price)


2014-12-02 3:22 PM
in reply to: EdwardNJ

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Subject: RE: Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?

Originally posted by EdwardNJ Thank you guys! I assume it won't be a problem to find 10 speed cassettes and chains. However, worst case scenario, if I crash and I need new shifters and one of the derailleurs, would it be that expensive to switch the components to 11 speed? I am just wondering because I have no idea. Including labor, how much would it cost to "upgrade" to a 11 speed system (105 or Ultegra) within the next two years? (or once this 10 speed parts become harder to find at a reasonable price)

10 speed parts will be easy to find at a reasonable price for the next 3-5 years.  Don't worry about it.  10 speed was first introduced in 2003...over a decade ago...and you can still find 9 speed parts today.

If you eventually want to move to 11 speed in the next 2 years, you will probably be better off buying a whole new bike that comes with it.  The cost of completely replacing your components quite expensive in terms of parts and labor...especially when you consider that it doesn't make you any faster.  Then of course you are left with a bunch of leftover used 10 speed parts...which you probably have no use for.  If you buy another bike, at least you can sell your old bike intact.  Much easier to sell a whole bike than a bunch of parts.

2014-12-04 8:16 AM
in reply to: EdwardNJ

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Subject: RE: Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?
Originally posted by EdwardNJ.

My question is how fast the 10 speed will become obsolete in terms of availability of higher end parts (for 105 and up)? Are the newer aero wheels backward compatible?

You'll be totally fine. By the time your parts have any wear at all, they'll be lots more mechanical and electronic component options in the near future. To go to (shimano) 11-speed, you'll have to switch the shifters, the FD, the RD, the chain, and the cassette (your current cranks will be fine). Any 10-speed parts that are still in good shape don't have to be tossed, they'll be sellable on ebay, usually for good money. And don't worry about your wheelset, there is an easy (and free) way to make most any 8/9/10-speed wheelset work perfectly with 11 speed. I've got more info posted about exactly how right here:
http://darkspeedworks.com/blog.htm

Greg @ dsw

2014-12-05 2:31 PM
in reply to: EdwardNJ

New user
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Subject: RE: Will 10 Speed become obsolete? How soon?
I'm still running 9 speed on all my bikes.
Parts are readily available and significantly cheaper than when they were new.

Heck, look at it this way.
When everyone is rushing to upgrade to 12 or 13 speed or electronic, you'll be able to pick up 10 speed stuff on the cheap.
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