Are these goals realistic?

Extreme Veteran

5722

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by Caroleena

Right now I run a 9 min mile and 18mph average on the bike. I would like to decrease my run to 8 min mile and increase my bike mph to 20 by June.

If I dedicate three 40-60 minute sessions per week biking and three 40-60 minute sessions per week running, is it realistic that I can improve my running by 1 minute per mile and biking by 2 miles per hour in 5 months? I run only sprint triathlons so the distances/times to sustain are only 5ks for the run and 12 miles or so for the bike.

Opinions are welcome

It will depend a lot on where you are coming from and how you will invest your training time, but yes it is possible. Not trivial, but definitely possible.
I think the bike is slightly easier given those time investments.
obviously the trick will be optimizing the time you do train.

Edited by marcag 2015-01-07 7:32 AM

My Race Log

Extreme Veteran

1986

Cypress, TX

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

The answer is yes, no, maybe, I don't know. There's not a lot of information to go on.

Speed metrics are often a very unreliable measure of comparable effort and progress due to all the variables in play.

An 8:00/mile pace is very different in 95 degree temps as compared to 65 degrees.

Your 18 mph ride one day is a 20 mph ride with a 5 mph tailwind. That kind of stuff. Wind and hills can make speed comparisons almost meaningless.

You can possibly find 2 mph of free speed by optimizing your position on the bike and eliminating as much drag as possible (no loose clothing, not having 5 water bottles attached to your bike, etc.). Spend a little bit of money on an aero helmet and there's more savings.

Dedicating 40-60 minute sessions 3x per week for bike and run will more than likely result in better performance but what are you doing in those workouts. There's obviously a big difference between noodling around in Z1 for 40 minutes compared to hammering Z4 or 5 for 40 minutes.

Extreme Veteran

5722

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by GMAN 19030
Speed metrics are often a very unreliable measure of comparable effort and progress due to all the variables in play.

this is very true.

But putting external factors aside
To do 18mph on a flat course, no wind in the drops, requires about 125watts
To do it at 20mpjh requires 165 watts

Can a person increase 40watts in 5 months. If they come from an environment of low volume in Z2, yes with a lot of work. I suspect the 2mph is a combination of increasing fitness and some tuning of aerodynamics

A 9min mile is about a 27m 5k or a VDOT of 35. A 8 min mile is 24m or a VDOT of 40.
Increasing VDOT by 5 in 5 months is very hard. But if your training was poor until now, much easier
A VDOT improvement of 3 is more realistic in 5months which is a 25min 5k

the above is just to put concrete numbers of the improvement required.

Edited by marcag 2015-01-07 8:04 AM

My Race Log

353

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

I plan on one speed session running about 7.5-8.5min mile intervals for a total of 40 minutes, one long run about 10min mile of 60 minutes and one other run about 9 min mile of 45 minutes. For biking: one long bike ride of 60 minutes at about+ 16mph, one speed session of intervals 19-20 mph for a total of 40 minutes, and one other bike about 17.5-18.5 mph for 45 minutes.

353

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by GMAN 19030
Speed metrics are often a very unreliable measure of comparable effort and progress due to all the variables in play.

this is very true.

But putting externa; factors aside
To do 18mph on a flat course, no wind in the drops, requires about 125watts
To do it at 20mpjh requires 165 watts

Can a person increase 40watts in 5 months. If they come from an environment of low volume in Z2, yes with a lot of work. I suspect the 2mph is a combination of increasing fitness and some tuning of aerodynamics

A 9min mile is about a 27m 5k or a VDOT of 35. A 8 min mile is 24m or a VDOT of 40.
Increasing VDOT by 5 in 5 months is very hard. But if your training was poor until now, much easier
A VDOT improvement of 3 is more realistic in 5months which is a 25min 5k

good to know. my run training wasn't poor, but I didn't focus at all on any interval training until just a month ago, so I think there is still room for improvement by virtue of utilizing the interval training over several months. 25 min 5k would be about an 8.25 min mile or so?

biking I think I have more room for improvement. have only been training once (sometimes twice) per week for the past several years and only started intervals in the past month.

353

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by GMAN 19030
Speed metrics are often a very unreliable measure of comparable effort and progress due to all the variables in play.

this is very true.

But putting externa; factors aside
To do 18mph on a flat course, no wind in the drops, requires about 125watts
To do it at 20mpjh requires 165 watts

Can a person increase 40watts in 5 months. If they come from an environment of low volume in Z2, yes with a lot of work. I suspect the 2mph is a combination of increasing fitness and some tuning of aerodynamics

A 9min mile is about a 27m 5k or a VDOT of 35. A 8 min mile is 24m or a VDOT of 40.
Increasing VDOT by 5 in 5 months is very hard. But if your training was poor until now, much easier
A VDOT improvement of 3 is more realistic in 5months which is a 25min 5k

double post

Edited by Caroleena 2015-01-07 8:09 AM

Champion

7036

Sarasota, FL

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by GMAN 19030

.

Dedicating 40-60 minute sessions 3x per week for bike and run will more than likely result in better performance but what are you doing in those workouts. There's obviously a big difference between noodling around in Z1 for 40 minutes compared to hammering Z4 or 5 for 40 minutes.

It may sound too simple, but I maded the jump from 18mph to 20mph by just going out and riding harder & faster. I think a big part of it was psychological; I just needed to learn how to deal with being a bit more uncomfortable on the bike. I had been spending too much time doing Z2 and Z3 rides and not improving. That's one of the reasons I went from HR training to RPE.

Mark

My Race Log

Master

2802

Minnetonka, Minnesota

Bronze member

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

How old are you and have you ever been able to run at 8 min/mile pace for any distance?

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353	Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic? I'm 43 and I've never tried to run faster than 10 min mile (have been running for 3 yrs). Just recently in the past several months began focusing on getting faster and was able to decrease it to 9 min mile.

, Illinois

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Absolutely you can do it, here are some actual data points from my first 10 months

I went from the couch last March and did my first tri in June, 15.5m @ 18.0mph on the bike and ran 4m @ 8:35/m. In September I did 25m @ 19.2mph and ran 6.2m @8:47. I don't know my current bike speed because I've been indoor on the trainer but my most recent run I ran 4.65m @7:54. I wasn't overweight but was doing almost zero exercising when I started, it was a struggle for me to go a mile on the treadmill. I'm 40yo male that did sports in high school but mostly 12oz curls since then.

As previously mentioned, there is some free speed on the bike. Unfortunately, I didn't really look too closely at this until after my September race. I think if I went back to the shorter distance with my better position I should be able to go 20mph. Get a fitting if you have the money or do some research and video yourself on the bike. Take a look at your position and compare it to pros. You can easily find videos and pictures of them online. You may find you need to do some stretching. I'm not comfortable enough with my masculinity to do yoga but it's been suggested to me several times by some much better cyclists. My run progress from September until now was ALL mental. You have to train yourself to be comfortable with being uncomfortable and I would guess that's something each person does differently.

You may go thru periods where you see little or no progress but stick with it, all of a sudden you'll see a jump in performance.

409

Durham, North Carolina

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

It may sound too simple, but I maded the jump from 18mph to 20mph by just going out and riding harder & faster. I think a big part of it was psychological; I just needed to learn how to deal with being a bit more uncomfortable on the bike. I had been spending too much time doing Z2 and Z3 rides and not improving. That's one of the reasons I went from HR training to RPE.

Mark

I did a lot of riding in an "easy" gear and just had a high cadence. Once I devoted some time to pedaling in a harder gear and averaged the two out I made some quick gains.

I think your goals are very possible and were similar to mine that I attained and surpassed. In 2 months (with very hard consistent training) I went from 18.2 mph and 9:20/m pace to 20.2 and 8:10/m on the same course. No idea how much the wind played into it because I always think its against me :D.

Member

622

Franklin, TN

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by Caroleena

Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by GMAN 19030 Speed metrics are often a very unreliable measure of comparable effort and progress due to all the variables in play.

this is very true. But putting externa; factors aside To do 18mph on a flat course, no wind in the drops, requires about 125watts To do it at 20mpjh requires 165 watts Can a person increase 40watts in 5 months. If they come from an environment of low volume in Z2, yes with a lot of work. I suspect the 2mph is a combination of increasing fitness and some tuning of aerodynamics A 9min mile is about a 27m 5k or a VDOT of 35. A 8 min mile is 24m or a VDOT of 40. Increasing VDOT by 5 in 5 months is very hard. But if your training was poor until now, much easier A VDOT improvement of 3 is more realistic in 5months which is a 25min 5k

good to know. my run training wasn't poor, but I didn't focus at all on any interval training until just a month ago, so I think there is still room for improvement by virtue of utilizing the interval training over several months. 25 min 5k would be about an 8.25 min mile or so? biking I think I have more room for improvement. have only been training once (sometimes twice) per week for the past several years and only started intervals in the past month.

A 25 minute 5k implies an 8:03 mile.

It's going to be tough to reach both of those goals in that time frame if you're talking about a triathlon race effort. To race a triathlon at those speeds, you need to be able to go faster than that for the individual events.

IMO, you're light on run frequency. Running 5-6 times a week (most of it easy) will increase your run fitness and get you faster. Intervals are good, but you need a solid run base before you start adding the fast stuff. Once you get a decent base (say 18-20 miles/week), start substituting one of those runs with a) a tempo effort, b) a fartlek run or c) a set of 10-12 400m intervals (at say a 7:15-7:30 pace).

The bike. Since it's non-impact, you can get away with harder efforts. Volume and intensity are your friends with regard to improvements on your bike splits. If you are only doing 3 rides a week, they all need to be at a quick pace. The 60 minute ride at 16 mph is not doing you much good....you need to be trying to hit 18-20 for most of that ride.

My Race Log

353

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by ec1974

Absolutely you can do it, here are some actual data points from my first 10 months

I went from the couch last March and did my first tri in June, 15.5m @ 18.0mph on the bike and ran 4m @ 8:35/m. In September I did 25m @ 19.2mph and ran 6.2m @8:47. I don't know my current bike speed because I've been indoor on the trainer but my most recent run I ran 4.65m @7:54. I wasn't overweight but was doing almost zero exercising when I started, it was a struggle for me to go a mile on the treadmill. I'm 40yo male that did sports in high school but mostly 12oz curls since then.

As previously mentioned, there is some free speed on the bike. Unfortunately, I didn't really look too closely at this until after my September race. I think if I went back to the shorter distance with my better position I should be able to go 20mph. Get a fitting if you have the money or do some research and video yourself on the bike. Take a look at your position and compare it to pros. You can easily find videos and pictures of them online. You may find you need to do some stretching. I'm not comfortable enough with my masculinity to do yoga but it's been suggested to me several times by some much better cyclists. My run progress from September until now was ALL mental. You have to train yourself to be comfortable with being uncomfortable and I would guess that's something each person does differently.

You may go thru periods where you see little or no progress but stick with it, all of a sudden you'll see a jump in performance.

Thanks! I trained as a dancer in my earlier life so my flexibility is still good. I agree about getting to a comfort level with discomfort - once I approach that point I tend to back down after just a minute or two. It's a fear of breaking that barrier I guess. But what's the worst that can happen with sustaining that kind of level for 10 minutes (as an example) rather than 2? Guess I'll have to find out!

353

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by Lupy

It may sound too simple, but I maded the jump from 18mph to 20mph by just going out and riding harder & faster. I think a big part of it was psychological; I just needed to learn how to deal with being a bit more uncomfortable on the bike. I had been spending too much time doing Z2 and Z3 rides and not improving. That's one of the reasons I went from HR training to RPE.

Mark

I did a lot of riding in an "easy" gear and just had a high cadence. Once I devoted some time to pedaling in a harder gear and averaged the two out I made some quick gains.

I think your goals are very possible and were similar to mine that I attained and surpassed. In 2 months (with very hard consistent training) I went from 18.2 mph and 9:20/m pace to 20.2 and 8:10/m on the same course. No idea how much the wind played into it because I always think its against me :D.

It's nice to know that someone else has achieved similar goals in a shorter timeframe - gives me hope! My training on the stationary bike is mainly at a level 6 - - but I am not sure how that equates with gears.

353

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by JoelO

Originally posted by Caroleena

Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by GMAN 19030 Speed metrics are often a very unreliable measure of comparable effort and progress due to all the variables in play.

this is very true. But putting externa; factors aside To do 18mph on a flat course, no wind in the drops, requires about 125watts To do it at 20mpjh requires 165 watts Can a person increase 40watts in 5 months. If they come from an environment of low volume in Z2, yes with a lot of work. I suspect the 2mph is a combination of increasing fitness and some tuning of aerodynamics A 9min mile is about a 27m 5k or a VDOT of 35. A 8 min mile is 24m or a VDOT of 40. Increasing VDOT by 5 in 5 months is very hard. But if your training was poor until now, much easier A VDOT improvement of 3 is more realistic in 5months which is a 25min 5k

good to know. my run training wasn't poor, but I didn't focus at all on any interval training until just a month ago, so I think there is still room for improvement by virtue of utilizing the interval training over several months. 25 min 5k would be about an 8.25 min mile or so? biking I think I have more room for improvement. have only been training once (sometimes twice) per week for the past several years and only started intervals in the past month.

A 25 minute 5k implies an 8:03 mile.

It's going to be tough to reach both of those goals in that time frame if you're talking about a triathlon race effort. To race a triathlon at those speeds, you need to be able to go faster than that for the individual events.

IMO, you're light on run frequency. Running 5-6 times a week (most of it easy) will increase your run fitness and get you faster. Intervals are good, but you need a solid run base before you start adding the fast stuff. Once you get a decent base (say 18-20 miles/week), start substituting one of those runs with a) a tempo effort, b) a fartlek run or c) a set of 10-12 400m intervals (at say a 7:15-7:30 pace).

The bike. Since it's non-impact, you can get away with harder efforts. Volume and intensity are your friends with regard to improvements on your bike splits. If you are only doing 3 rides a week, they all need to be at a quick pace. The 60 minute ride at 16 mph is not doing you much good....you need to be trying to hit 18-20 for most of that ride.

I know I could (maybe should!) run more frequently. I am afraid of overdoing it though and injuring myself. I have a mental comfort level with always skipping a day between running workouts to let my body recover. Maybe it's not necessary, but it's kind of a security blanket. I had a bad ankle injury in 2012 (not run related) and a recurrence in the spring of this year. So I ere on the side of caution I guess. I will definitely take your advice on the long bike ride though!

Veteran

1677

Houston, Texas

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by Caroleena

I know I could (maybe should!) run more frequently. I am afraid of overdoing it though and injuring myself. I have a mental comfort level with always skipping a day between running workouts to let my body recover. Maybe it's not necessary, but it's kind of a security blanket. I had a bad ankle injury in 2012 (not run related) and a recurrence in the spring of this year. So I ere on the side of caution I guess. I will definitely take your advice on the long bike ride though!

Honestly, you're more likely to hurt yourself doing few runs with some fast work than you are doing more frequent (mostly easy) runs with the occasional bit of fast work.

My Race Log

Veteran

495

Calgary

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by GMAN 19030
Speed metrics are often a very unreliable measure of comparable effort and progress due to all the variables in play.

this is very true.

But putting external factors aside
To do 18mph on a flat course, no wind in the drops, requires about 125watts
To do it at 20mpjh requires 165 watts

Can a person increase 40watts in 5 months. If they come from an environment of low volume in Z2, yes with a lot of work. I suspect the 2mph is a combination of increasing fitness and some tuning of aerodynamics

A 9min mile is about a 27m 5k or a VDOT of 35. A 8 min mile is 24m or a VDOT of 40.
Increasing VDOT by 5 in 5 months is very hard. But if your training was poor until now, much easier
A VDOT improvement of 3 is more realistic in 5months which is a 25min 5k

the above is just to put concrete numbers of the improvement required.

I'm inclined to suggest that you back off a bit on the running goal a bit. As is pointed out above, an improvement from 9 min/mile to 8 min/mile is a pretty big change. If you were very new to running it would be more reasonable to aim for this much improvement.
- you're aiming to improve in both running and biking which will increases the challenge.
- you (sensibly) have concerns about overdoing your run training. An overly ambitious target might cause you to push too hard and get injured.
- lots of plans and web sites provide paces for training - your paces should be based on your current ability and not on your goal (so in a way the goal may not make much difference in how you train anyways)
- if your training seems to be going really well you can always revise your goals upward. A race time goal is pretty arbitrary - maybe you should consider other types of goals such as picking a suitable training plan and sticking to it.

Don

928

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

It really depends on too many things to answer-- you said you never ran faster than 10:00/mile, and was able to get to 9:00/mile with just a bit of training. That's pretty typical. For many new runners it takes a lot more work to get to 8:00/mile in a stand-alone road race, and doing it in a triathlon is tougher. But it depends on your potential and how close you are to it.

To compare-- when I first started running in races about 10 years ago, I had previously only ran 10:00/mile as well. It took only a few months to get to 9:00/mile, but then another year or so before I was able to race at 8:00/mile in a 10K. That doesn't mean I normally ran that fast-- some of my regular running was still at about 10:00/mile. I started doing sprint triathlons two years ago, and still haven't been able to run 8:00/mile in a triathlon. I'm happy enough doing 9:00/mile after my legs are fatigued in the bike.

So yes, it's possible. But there isn't enough information to know. And even with more information, it's hard to predict. Just train and see where you get.

My Race Log

353

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by donw

Originally posted by marcag

Originally posted by GMAN 19030
Speed metrics are often a very unreliable measure of comparable effort and progress due to all the variables in play.

this is very true.

But putting external factors aside
To do 18mph on a flat course, no wind in the drops, requires about 125watts
To do it at 20mpjh requires 165 watts

Can a person increase 40watts in 5 months. If they come from an environment of low volume in Z2, yes with a lot of work. I suspect the 2mph is a combination of increasing fitness and some tuning of aerodynamics

A 9min mile is about a 27m 5k or a VDOT of 35. A 8 min mile is 24m or a VDOT of 40.
Increasing VDOT by 5 in 5 months is very hard. But if your training was poor until now, much easier
A VDOT improvement of 3 is more realistic in 5months which is a 25min 5k

the above is just to put concrete numbers of the improvement required.

I'm inclined to suggest that you back off a bit on the running goal a bit. As is pointed out above, an improvement from 9 min/mile to 8 min/mile is a pretty big change. If you were very new to running it would be more reasonable to aim for this much improvement.
- you're aiming to improve in both running and biking which will increases the challenge.
- you (sensibly) have concerns about overdoing your run training. An overly ambitious target might cause you to push too hard and get injured.
- lots of plans and web sites provide paces for training - your paces should be based on your current ability and not on your goal (so in a way the goal may not make much difference in how you train anyways)
- if your training seems to be going really well you can always revise your goals upward. A race time goal is pretty arbitrary - maybe you should consider other types of goals such as picking a suitable training plan and sticking to it.

Don

Thanks Don. Maybe I will consider 8 1/2 min mile as my goal. I'll have to research paces more too.

353

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by jennifer_runs

It really depends on too many things to answer-- you said you never ran faster than 10:00/mile, and was able to get to 9:00/mile with just a bit of training. That's pretty typical. For many new runners it takes a lot more work to get to 8:00/mile in a stand-alone road race, and doing it in a triathlon is tougher. But it depends on your potential and how close you are to it.

To compare-- when I first started running in races about 10 years ago, I had previously only ran 10:00/mile as well. It took only a few months to get to 9:00/mile, but then another year or so before I was able to race at 8:00/mile in a 10K. That doesn't mean I normally ran that fast-- some of my regular running was still at about 10:00/mile. I started doing sprint triathlons two years ago, and still haven't been able to run 8:00/mile in a triathlon. I'm happy enough doing 9:00/mile after my legs are fatigued in the bike.

So yes, it's possible. But there isn't enough information to know. And even with more information, it's hard to predict. Just train and see where you get.

Thanks! That actually sounds realistic and promising at the same time. How old were you when you started running 10 years ago? Probably younger than I am now!

353

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by ligersandtions

Originally posted by Caroleena

I know I could (maybe should!) run more frequently. I am afraid of overdoing it though and injuring myself. I have a mental comfort level with always skipping a day between running workouts to let my body recover. Maybe it's not necessary, but it's kind of a security blanket. I had a bad ankle injury in 2012 (not run related) and a recurrence in the spring of this year. So I ere on the side of caution I guess. I will definitely take your advice on the long bike ride though!

Honestly, you're more likely to hurt yourself doing few runs with some fast work than you are doing more frequent (mostly easy) runs with the occasional bit of fast work.

Believe me... that is always on my mind!

928

Subject: RE: Are these goals realistic?

Originally posted by Caroleena

Originally posted by jennifer_runs

It really depends on too many things to answer-- you said you never ran faster than 10:00/mile, and was able to get to 9:00/mile with just a bit of training. That's pretty typical. For many new runners it takes a lot more work to get to 8:00/mile in a stand-alone road race, and doing it in a triathlon is tougher. But it depends on your potential and how close you are to it.

To compare-- when I first started running in races about 10 years ago, I had previously only ran 10:00/mile as well. It took only a few months to get to 9:00/mile, but then another year or so before I was able to race at 8:00/mile in a 10K. That doesn't mean I normally ran that fast-- some of my regular running was still at about 10:00/mile. I started doing sprint triathlons two years ago, and still haven't been able to run 8:00/mile in a triathlon. I'm happy enough doing 9:00/mile after my legs are fatigued in the bike.

So yes, it's possible. But there isn't enough information to know. And even with more information, it's hard to predict. Just train and see where you get.

Thanks! That actually sounds realistic and promising at the same time. How old were you when you started running 10 years ago? Probably younger than I am now!

I was 37 when I started running - I'm actually 48 now, so 11 years (I can't do math as well now

). But my fastest year was 2011, when I was 45 (when I could race a 5k at 7:30/mile). I have had some injuries and had to cut back on running- then started triathlon. Still trying to get that speed back.

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