General Discussion Triathlon Talk » 70.3 to 140.6 predictor Rss Feed  
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2015-01-19 2:25 PM

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Subject: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor
Hey all,
I haven't been around in a while. Doing my first IM this year.
Is there a website or app where I can input my HIM times to predict my IM finish/pacing?
Thanks!


2015-01-19 2:51 PM
in reply to: joestop74


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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor
I did the same thing last year and asked the same question. Multiple people stated you take your 70.3 time times two, plus add an extra hour. For me, I ended up adding two hours, but some of this was related to nuitrician mistakes I made during the race. If I had not made these mistakes, I think the double plus one hour was right on the mark. I also took a slower than normal pace with the intent of fulfilling the primary goal of finishing.

I have already signed up for my second IM and my goal this year is to not make the same mistakes and shoot to cut my time by an hour.

Hope this helps.
2015-01-19 2:57 PM
in reply to: tjudson

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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor
That sounds reasonable. Thanks.

And good luck on your next IM.
2015-01-19 7:16 PM
in reply to: joestop74

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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor

Double plus one hour on a similar profiled course in similar conditions is a decent ballpark.  Obviously if your 70.3 is something pancake flat like Galveston or New Orleans the double plus one hour wouldn't equate on a course like IM Tahoe or IM Canada which have about 20-25x the elevation gain.

2015-01-19 7:23 PM
in reply to: GMAN 19030

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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor
Yes, it would be the same course. But thanks for adding that info...I may not have considered that otherwise!
2015-01-19 7:52 PM
in reply to: joestop74

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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor
Double your HIM time plus one hour is a general guess for most age groupers in the MOP. Pros are about double plus 20-30 minutes. BOP racers could be closer to double plus 2 hours. IOW, if you can do a HIM in 4 hours flat, it's likely you have the potential to go well under 9 hours. Or if your best HIM is 8 hours, its likely your best IM will be over 17 hours unless you pick an easier course or gain fitness.


2015-01-19 8:10 PM
in reply to: Jason N


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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor
Yeah I think double + an hour is about right. I was a bit slower though as I picked up an injury, but as a guide here are some results from 70.3 Busso and IM Busso for me and friends

4.30 10.15
4.38 10.22
4.03 8.54
5.10 11.54
4.45 10.45

2015-01-19 9:36 PM
in reply to: zedzded

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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor
I think it's pretty hard to predict it but a 1-3 hour range is probably about right. It depends on the weather and hopefully you pacing yourself correctly. For me,
2 years ago: HIM: 6:07 IM: 11:30
last year: HIM: 5:06 (flat), IM:11:00 (hilly)

Last year I trained a lot in Z2 so I could go in Z2 forever. My HIM could have been faster but I had a hard time even trying to get above Z2 (was mostly Z2). I was training for my IM and not so much my HIM.
2015-01-19 9:57 PM
in reply to: #5085005

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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor
For me it is double my HIM plus 30 min at similar race courses (4:51 vs. 10:08)

2 x HIM time + 1 hour seems a lot for me, but I think it is because I can't go very fast in shorter distances.

Don't worry too much about your IM time. Enjoy the journey and focus on executing your race perfectly, chasing a time may be a recipe for disaster.
2015-01-19 10:30 PM
in reply to: davidfedez

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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor
Here is a predictor based on training inputs. But, as others have said, a lot of different variables. For me, I enjoyed my first Ironman so much more than the second. For first, I focused on just finishing, for second, got caught up chasing a time that proved to be unrealistic. For third, just trying to focus on enjoying the process.

http://www.qt2systems.com/triathlon-calculator/
2015-01-20 7:13 AM
in reply to: davidfedez

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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor

Originally posted by davidfedez For me it is double my HIM plus 30 min at similar race courses (4:51 vs. 10:08) 2 x HIM time + 1 hour seems a lot for me, but I think it is because I can't go very fast in shorter distances. Don't worry too much about your IM time. Enjoy the journey and focus on executing your race perfectly, chasing a time may be a recipe for disaster.

I think you might be a slight outlier (as you noted).  I can do your HIM time but I'm 40 minutes off your IM.  My run breaks down the longer the distance and my guess is that your IM marathon is much better than mine.



2015-01-20 2:50 PM
in reply to: GMAN 19030

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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor
Originally posted by GMAN 19030

Originally posted by davidfedez For me it is double my HIM plus 30 min at similar race courses (4:51 vs. 10:08) 2 x HIM time + 1 hour seems a lot for me, but I think it is because I can't go very fast in shorter distances. Don't worry too much about your IM time. Enjoy the journey and focus on executing your race perfectly, chasing a time may be a recipe for disaster.

I think you might be a slight outlier (as you noted).  I can do your HIM time but I'm 40 minutes off your IM.  My run breaks down the longer the distance and my guess is that your IM marathon is much better than mine.




Yeah, in my case, I don't know how to run "fast". My run also breaks down as the distance gets longer, but the difference between my HIM and IM run is less than 20 min when doubling my HIM run.

Also, probably the HIM time I posted here should've been 4-6 minutes less. I am a weak swimmer and the swim of this HIM was VERY rough due to strong currents. It took me 40 minutes to complete it (all athletes I talked to mentioned that their swimming times were about 5 minutes slower than usual).

2015-01-21 7:26 AM
in reply to: davidfedez

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Subject: RE: 70.3 to 140.6 predictor

My IM run is like 45 minutes slower than my 2xHIM run.

I've had good swim and bike splits but the run isn't something I've been able to nail down over the IM distance.  Hence why I'm in IM semi-retirement.  Once I feel like I'm willing to dedicate the time to properly train up to where I should be for an IM I will return.

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