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Can I break 4 hours? (Page 2)
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 2015-04-23 11:46 AM in reply to: yazmaster |
 Seattle |  Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?Originally posted by yazmaster I'm going to recommend that you NOT race by target time with sub-4 as the goal, but run to enjoy it, and only shoot for sub-4 if it's looking doable at the 20 mile mark.
The truth is that the marathon is a race that highly rewards training volume and severely punishes low training volume, even if you're fast for your target time (which you are.) Countless marathon aspirants had great leadup results at 5k, 10k, and half marathon distances in training, yet fall short (often way short) on the marathon race day, since a 26.2 simply so much farther than 13.1.
I know the Hanson plan is a 'shorter long run' plan that rarely even goes to 20 miles in a long run, but unless you've stuck with the volume and intensity in that plan, I'd err on the conservative side, since the lack of volume in that plan is already a potential drawback, and thus if you further cut back on its volume, it's possible that no amount of intensity will compensate to finish the 26.2 at your 'mcmillan' or whatever target pace.
If you're rarely running 20+ in training, even on the Hanson plan, and then had a few more setbacks in training, you really should be conservative in your race goals, and especially with using HM results as an estimate. The Mcmillan estimate for a marathon off a 1:53 HM is a 3:57:49; in most cases though, people should add 15 or even 20 minutes to their Mcmillan estimate unless they're running 70mpw and are highly experienced with marathons. If it's an 'easy' marathon course (like mostly downhill like St. George), you probably should still add 5-10' to the estimate. I tend to agree with most of this. What do you suppose the cons would be of running this at the goal M pace and dropping if it's not attainable and what do you think she would gain out of running and completing the marathon at an easier pace? |
| 2015-04-23 12:33 PM in reply to: Asalzwed |
Pro  6191    | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? Originally posted by Asalzwed Originally posted by yazmaster I'm going to recommend that you NOT race by target time with sub-4 as the goal, but run to enjoy it, and only shoot for sub-4 if it's looking doable at the 20 mile mark.
The truth is that the marathon is a race that highly rewards training volume and severely punishes low training volume, even if you're fast for your target time (which you are.) Countless marathon aspirants had great leadup results at 5k, 10k, and half marathon distances in training, yet fall short (often way short) on the marathon race day, since a 26.2 simply so much farther than 13.1.
I know the Hanson plan is a 'shorter long run' plan that rarely even goes to 20 miles in a long run, but unless you've stuck with the volume and intensity in that plan, I'd err on the conservative side, since the lack of volume in that plan is already a potential drawback, and thus if you further cut back on its volume, it's possible that no amount of intensity will compensate to finish the 26.2 at your 'mcmillan' or whatever target pace.
If you're rarely running 20+ in training, even on the Hanson plan, and then had a few more setbacks in training, you really should be conservative in your race goals, and especially with using HM results as an estimate. The Mcmillan estimate for a marathon off a 1:53 HM is a 3:57:49; in most cases though, people should add 15 or even 20 minutes to their Mcmillan estimate unless they're running 70mpw and are highly experienced with marathons. If it's an 'easy' marathon course (like mostly downhill like St. George), you probably should still add 5-10' to the estimate. I tend to agree with most of this. What do you suppose the cons would be of running this at the goal M pace and dropping if it's not attainable and what do you think she would gain out of running and completing the marathon at an easier pace? I tend to agree with most of it, except for the emphasis on the 20 miler. If I'm (supposed) to max out at 50ish miles a week, I don't think there's much value in squishing 40% of that weekly volume into one run. Which is why I chose Hanson's plan. But I do agree that my actual execution of training doesn't meet the intention of the plan. If you were me, how would you pace the marathon? |
| 2015-04-23 12:38 PM in reply to: ratherbeswimming |
1660 | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? Oh, don't underestimate how crucial that 20 miler is. Again, I know you're on the Hanson plan, but most folks have a very hard time subbing the intensity in for the volume. Ask any marathoner - it's a race that highly rewards volume over speed, and every 20 miler+ you do in training is money in the bank for fighting off any late-game bonk on race day. Even if you're running 45mpw, those 20 milers are extremely helpful (if introduced gradually so you don't get injured.)
I'd pace it out at Mcmillan estimate + 15 and reassess once at the 13.1 mile mark and then again at the 20 mile mark. If it just feels too darn easy at the 13.1, you can pick it up, but remember that you should feel you've only spent half the tank at the 20 mile mark. If you hit the 20 mile mark feeling 80% fatigued, you're going to be walking by mile 24. |
| 2015-04-23 12:56 PM in reply to: yazmaster |
| Seattle | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? Originally posted by yazmaster Oh, don't underestimate how crucial that 20 miler is. Again, I know you're on the Hanson plan, but most folks have a very hard time subbing the intensity in for the volume. Ask any marathoner - it's a race that highly rewards volume over speed, and every 20 miler+ you do in training is money in the bank for fighting off any late-game bonk on race day. Even if you're running 45mpw, those 20 milers are extremely helpful (if introduced gradually so you don't get injured.)
I'd pace it out at Mcmillan estimate + 15 and reassess once at the 13.1 mile mark and then again at the 20 mile mark. If it just feels too darn easy at the 13.1, you can pick it up, but remember that you should feel you've only spent half the tank at the 20 mile mark. If you hit the 20 mile mark feeling 80% fatigued, you're going to be walking by mile 24. I don't necessarily agree with a 20 miler being crucial. Maybe, just maybe if your confidence hinges on it but I wouldn't say physiologically. But you really need the overall volume to support 20 miles. I do agree a lot of runners have difficulty subbing intensity for volume. It concerns me more to see 20 miles being almost half of a 45 mile week. |
| 2015-04-23 12:58 PM in reply to: ratherbeswimming |
| Seattle | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? Originally posted by ratherbeswimming Originally posted by Asalzwed Originally posted by yazmaster I'm going to recommend that you NOT race by target time with sub-4 as the goal, but run to enjoy it, and only shoot for sub-4 if it's looking doable at the 20 mile mark.
The truth is that the marathon is a race that highly rewards training volume and severely punishes low training volume, even if you're fast for your target time (which you are.) Countless marathon aspirants had great leadup results at 5k, 10k, and half marathon distances in training, yet fall short (often way short) on the marathon race day, since a 26.2 simply so much farther than 13.1.
I know the Hanson plan is a 'shorter long run' plan that rarely even goes to 20 miles in a long run, but unless you've stuck with the volume and intensity in that plan, I'd err on the conservative side, since the lack of volume in that plan is already a potential drawback, and thus if you further cut back on its volume, it's possible that no amount of intensity will compensate to finish the 26.2 at your 'mcmillan' or whatever target pace.
If you're rarely running 20+ in training, even on the Hanson plan, and then had a few more setbacks in training, you really should be conservative in your race goals, and especially with using HM results as an estimate. The Mcmillan estimate for a marathon off a 1:53 HM is a 3:57:49; in most cases though, people should add 15 or even 20 minutes to their Mcmillan estimate unless they're running 70mpw and are highly experienced with marathons. If it's an 'easy' marathon course (like mostly downhill like St. George), you probably should still add 5-10' to the estimate. I tend to agree with most of this. What do you suppose the cons would be of running this at the goal M pace and dropping if it's not attainable and what do you think she would gain out of running and completing the marathon at an easier pace? I tend to agree with most of it, except for the emphasis on the 20 miler. If I'm (supposed) to max out at 50ish miles a week, I don't think there's much value in squishing 40% of that weekly volume into one run. Which is why I chose Hanson's plan. But I do agree that my actual execution of training doesn't meet the intention of the plan. If you were me, how would you pace the marathon? Are you asking Yaz (sorry, I don't know your name)? I would like to hear what he (or anyone has to say about my question first) BUT if you are asking me...I would say that I don't see any value in running an easy marathon, given your set of circumstances. |
| 2015-04-23 1:55 PM in reply to: Asalzwed |
Member 622 Franklin, TN | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? I'm with Adrienne on this one. If you had never done a marathon, yes, do it for the experience. Since you've already done one and you have a time goal, I see no reason to run it just to complete it. I would follow Adrienne's plan, start off at goal pace and reevaluate by the time you get to the HM split. If you're not feeling pretty fresh as you approach the halfway point, pack it in. You won't need much recovery time if you have to cut it off at 13.1 and you'll have an awesome base to work from for a fall attempt. |
| 2015-04-23 3:46 PM in reply to: Asalzwed |
Pro 6191 | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? Originally posted by Asalzwed Originally posted by ratherbeswimming Originally posted by Asalzwed Originally posted by yazmaster I'm going to recommend that you NOT race by target time with sub-4 as the goal, but run to enjoy it, and only shoot for sub-4 if it's looking doable at the 20 mile mark.
The truth is that the marathon is a race that highly rewards training volume and severely punishes low training volume, even if you're fast for your target time (which you are.) Countless marathon aspirants had great leadup results at 5k, 10k, and half marathon distances in training, yet fall short (often way short) on the marathon race day, since a 26.2 simply so much farther than 13.1.
I know the Hanson plan is a 'shorter long run' plan that rarely even goes to 20 miles in a long run, but unless you've stuck with the volume and intensity in that plan, I'd err on the conservative side, since the lack of volume in that plan is already a potential drawback, and thus if you further cut back on its volume, it's possible that no amount of intensity will compensate to finish the 26.2 at your 'mcmillan' or whatever target pace.
If you're rarely running 20+ in training, even on the Hanson plan, and then had a few more setbacks in training, you really should be conservative in your race goals, and especially with using HM results as an estimate. The Mcmillan estimate for a marathon off a 1:53 HM is a 3:57:49; in most cases though, people should add 15 or even 20 minutes to their Mcmillan estimate unless they're running 70mpw and are highly experienced with marathons. If it's an 'easy' marathon course (like mostly downhill like St. George), you probably should still add 5-10' to the estimate. I tend to agree with most of this. What do you suppose the cons would be of running this at the goal M pace and dropping if it's not attainable and what do you think she would gain out of running and completing the marathon at an easier pace? I tend to agree with most of it, except for the emphasis on the 20 miler. If I'm (supposed) to max out at 50ish miles a week, I don't think there's much value in squishing 40% of that weekly volume into one run. Which is why I chose Hanson's plan. But I do agree that my actual execution of training doesn't meet the intention of the plan. If you were me, how would you pace the marathon? Are you asking Yaz (sorry, I don't know your name)? I would like to hear what he (or anyone has to say about my question first) BUT if you are asking me...I would say that I don't see any value in running an easy marathon, given your set of circumstances. My answer to your question is... nothing! The race is 4 loops, so there's REALLY easy bail-outs at 13.1 and 19.65. Also, I really can quit it at any time and never be more than a 5k-ish from the start. I'm with you and Joel on how I'll pace. |
| 2015-04-23 8:07 PM in reply to: Guest |
Member 1004 | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? Marathons are tough races and I always like to feel like I'm thoroughly prepared or I won't enjoy it. If you're going for a time, I'd wait. Get some more miles under your belt and make sure you're good and ready. If you go for the time and miss it, you run the risk of motivational problems. However, you know yourself best so in the end, it's your decision. |
| 2015-06-01 5:34 PM in reply to: b2run |
Pro 6191 | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! So, the answer is YES. I can break 4 hours. 3:56! It was NOT easy. Set out to hold about 9 min miles, and mostly did just that! Pacers were allowed - and encouraged! - so a friend biked with me for the final 13.1 and it helped a TON. I had to really dig deep mentally in the last 4 miles. If this time is good enough to get me on the AZ National Guard team, then I'll be running another one in early May. Also, if you live in Southern California and you're looking for some good low key, fun, inexpensive races, I can't recommend A Better World Running enough! |
| 2015-06-01 5:38 PM in reply to: ratherbeswimming |
| 1502 Katy, Texas | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! Originally posted by ratherbeswimming So, the answer is YES. I can break 4 hours. 3:56! It was NOT easy. Set out to hold about 9 min miles, and mostly did just that! Pacers were allowed - and encouraged! - so a friend biked with me for the final 13.1 and it helped a TON. I had to really dig deep mentally in the last 4 miles. If this time is good enough to get me on the AZ National Guard team, then I'll be running another one in early May. Also, if you live in Southern California and you're looking for some good low key, fun, inexpensive races, I can't recommend A Better World Running enough! Awesome!! Congrats! |
| 2015-06-01 5:46 PM in reply to: 3mar |
Pro 6520 Bellingham, WA | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! I can only imagine how good it felt crossing the finish line. Bet you had a smile a mile wide. Great job!!
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| 2015-06-01 6:12 PM in reply to: popsracer |
Pro 6191 | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! Originally posted by popsracer I can only imagine how good it felt crossing the finish line. Bet you had a smile a mile wide. Great job!! I did about 5 minutes after finishing. Initially after finishing I just stopped in place and couldn't really walk. I got helped over to some water and food, and eventually got really excited about it! My friend offered to bike ahead with about 1/4 mile left to get a finisher picture and I wouldn't let him leave me out of fear that I'd just stop. Definitely took a few minutes to get back out of the pain cave and enjoy it. |
| 2015-06-01 10:47 PM in reply to: ratherbeswimming |
| Seattle | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! Heck yeah girl! Great job! |
| 2015-06-01 10:47 PM in reply to: #5109981 |
Member 622 Franklin, TN | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? That is awesome! WhooHoo! Those last few miles had to be fun ... Not!  |
| 2015-06-01 11:33 PM in reply to: ratherbeswimming |
New user 1351 Austin, Texas | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! AWESOME! |
| 2015-06-02 6:52 AM in reply to: ratherbeswimming |
Elite 7783 PEI, Canada | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! Congrats! |
| 2015-06-02 8:27 AM in reply to: ratherbeswimming |
Master 2802 Minnetonka, Minnesota Bronze member | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! Congrats!!! |
| 2015-06-02 9:04 AM in reply to: ratherbeswimming |
Master 3888 Overland Park, KS | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! Nice work Elaine! |
| 2015-06-02 9:06 AM in reply to: ejshowers |
| 409 Durham, North Carolina | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! CONGRATS!!! Thanks so much for posting back with your update. I find posts like these to be very motivational! |
| 2015-06-02 9:31 AM in reply to: ratherbeswimming |
Master 6834 Englewood, Florida | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! Congrats!!!!! |
| 2015-06-03 6:40 PM in reply to: cdban66 |
| 928 | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! |
| 2015-06-04 11:46 AM in reply to: 0 |
| 1508 Cypress, Texas | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! Originally posted by ratherbeswimming So, the answer is YES. I can break 4 hours. 3:56! It was NOT easy. Set out to hold about 9 min miles, and mostly did just that! .... Congrats on your bran new sub 4 hour marathon. I never underestimate soccer players when it comes to running events. Edited by BlueBoy26 2015-06-04 11:48 AM |
| 2015-06-04 11:50 AM in reply to: Asalzwed |
| Pennsylvania | Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours? UPDATE!! Super, super job, Elaine! BIG congrats! |
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