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Can I break 4 hours?
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Go for it on May 306 Votes - [54.55%]
Keep running, but select a fall marathon5 Votes - [45.45%]

2015-04-22 11:36 AM

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Subject: Can I break 4 hours?

I'm on a quest for a sub-4 hour marathon in 2015. I'm registered for one on May 30. Between bronchitis and life (work, travel, drill weekends...) I've missed a fair amount of miles. I've been working my way through one of the Hanson plans. The big issue is with a lack of summer races in AZ, this is pretty much my last chance until fall.

My training log is up to date, with the exception of yesterday's run.

I've got another big run weekend on the schedule this weekend (8 Saturday, 16 Sunday), and a 4-game soccer tournament... so I'm likely to NOT hit all of those miles.

My question to you is do I...



2015-04-22 12:18 PM
in reply to: Guest

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?
I say go for it. However, I say you're going to need to get some long runs in looking at your calendar (the farthest I saw was just over 10 miles). But you've got over five weeks until the race so that's 3-4 weeks more of building depending on how much you taper. Adding 2 miles a week could get you up to 16 which should suffice. Whether or not you'll break 4 I don't know. Looking at your times I would say you have a shot. I'd would most definitely go for it if I were you.
2015-04-22 12:23 PM
in reply to: 3mar

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

16 is the longest in the Hanson plan.

The remaining weekend until taper are all 10/10 and 8/16 back to back.

2015-04-22 12:26 PM
in reply to: ratherbeswimming

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?
4 hours is a 9:20 pace I think. I saw a couple of runs where you were under that pace for 6 or 7 miles. Do you feel like that is sustainable for a marathon?
2015-04-22 12:31 PM
in reply to: 3mar

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

9 minutes flat would be a 3:55.

My 9 mile MP run last Thursday was rough and didn't feel sustainable. But they are supposed to be tough when you're not tapered.

My big point of worry is that I'm on a plan that counts on cumulative fatigue... and missing runs messes with that theory.

2015-04-22 12:34 PM
in reply to: ratherbeswimming

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?
hmm...well I'm not familiar with that one so I can't help you. If you don't think the plan will work, I'd recommend modifying it from here forward personally. I think you have the millage to at least make a good showing even if you don't meet your goal. So why not?


2015-04-22 12:37 PM
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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

Just under 9:10 pace.  I think that you have the cumulative workload to make it.  Certainly out to the 20+ mark at goal pace but the last few miles will tell the story.  Sometimes it is hard to predict what your body will want to do at that point. 

What is the course like and what kind of terrain do you do most of your running now?



Edited by popsracer 2015-04-22 12:38 PM
2015-04-22 12:41 PM
in reply to: ratherbeswimming

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

So, your race log shows one other marathon? I say go for it - knowing that you may run into the wall. Don't pace faster than a 3:59 but go out at that pace and see how well it goes.  To me, in any marathon anything can happen after mile 20 but so much matters in how hard you went out.  I don't think you should pace it 'to bank time' or build up a buffer to make it under 4 hours.  

It may even be good to go out with the four hour pace bunny (checking on their strategy first) and have someone to help you pace.  It doesn't always work out but you know that will be their goal too. 

2015-04-22 12:45 PM
in reply to: popsracer

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

Originally posted by popsracer

Just under 9:10 pace.  I think that you have the cumulative workload to make it.  Certainly out to the 20+ mark at goal pace but the last few miles will tell the story.  Sometimes it is hard to predict what your body will want to do at that point. 

What is the course like and what kind of terrain do you do most of your running now?

Pancake flat.

Most of my runs are flat, with a bit of hills/trails when possible. Like, that really slow Tuesday run last week was all trails

I'm certainly better trained/prepared when I ran a 4:22 a few years ago. That was 10 weeks of avg 30mpw after a half iron training cycle. 

2015-04-22 1:54 PM
in reply to: ratherbeswimming

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

Originally posted by ratherbeswimming

Originally posted by popsracer

Just under 9:10 pace.  I think that you have the cumulative workload to make it.  Certainly out to the 20+ mark at goal pace but the last few miles will tell the story.  Sometimes it is hard to predict what your body will want to do at that point. 

What is the course like and what kind of terrain do you do most of your running now?

Pancake flat.

Most of my runs are flat, with a bit of hills/trails when possible. Like, that really slow Tuesday run last week was all trails

I'm certainly better trained/prepared when I ran a 4:22 a few years ago. That was 10 weeks of avg 30mpw after a half iron training cycle. 

I figured some trails based on your pace.  The strength gained from hills/trails should serve you well in the latter stages of the race. 

2015-04-22 2:19 PM
in reply to: Guest

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

If you're already signed up for the May 30th marathon, then just do it, and pace according to feel...not by a goal pace.  The first 13 miles should feel pretty easy and your biggest worry should be holding yourself back because you feel so good.  If that results in a 9:11 pace or faster...then so be it, and continue on to see if you can break 4 hours.  

If you are struggling even a little bit to hold 9:11 pace the first 13 miles...then it's almost certainly not going to happen.  I don't care what you did in training...if you ran 90 mpw or whatever...the chances of you sustaining that pace for another 13 miles is between slim and none.

Go to a marathon finish line and right after people cross, ask them if they regret not going faster in the first 13 miles.  Almost none of them will answer yes unless they were totally sandbagging it.  Going out too easy on the first half of a marathon should be the least of your worries.



2015-04-22 3:15 PM
in reply to: Jason N


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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

The biggest issue I see is that your longest runs are in the 10 mile/90-105 minute range and you are only 5 weeks out. I think the Hanson's plans can work, but you would need to stick to them very closely, and still hit those higher mileage workouts.

Have you been able to hit your goal paces in the plan? And how have you felt when you've managed a good chunk of workouts without missing?

I would totally go for 4 hours. That is what I would do, and I would totally understand that I could and very likely would fail spectacularly.
Is this good advice? Nope. Based on the logs I don't see it happening, but if you have a good day, and the conditions cooperate, who knows. But the odds are you are in for a long and painful day.

Run this race, see how it goes, then run another in the fall. I give pretty low odds on you meeting your goal, but that shouldn't be a reason not to try. I'd also get up real early and make sure I got all the rest of my training in properly
2015-04-22 3:36 PM
in reply to: ImSore

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

Originally posted by ImSore The biggest issue I see is that your longest runs are in the 10 mile/90-105 minute range and you are only 5 weeks out. I think the Hanson's plans can work, but you would need to stick to them very closely, and still hit those higher mileage workouts. Have you been able to hit your goal paces in the plan? And how have you felt when you've managed a good chunk of workouts without missing? I would totally go for 4 hours. That is what I would do, and I would totally understand that I could and very likely would fail spectacularly. Is this good advice? Nope. Based on the logs I don't see it happening, but if you have a good day, and the conditions cooperate, who knows. But the odds are you are in for a long and painful day. Run this race, see how it goes, then run another in the fall. I give pretty low odds on you meeting your goal, but that shouldn't be a reason not to try. I'd also get up real early and make sure I got all the rest of my training in properly

Thanks for the honesty!

I was nailing mileage until recently, it seems. After bronchitis, my mileage suffered. I really like Hanson's approach, but I think I'd be better suited for 5 runs a week, not 6.

I've been doing pretty well with paces on Tuesday/Thursday, but dialed back the intensity on weeks I played soccer while still putting in miles. I haven't failed to meet goals on a speedwork day when actually trying to hit paces.

NOT IDEAL.

The marathon I'm doing is REALLY easy to drop out of if things aren't going well. The only reason I'm considering not going is the 6+ hr drive each way, plus hotel, the dogsitter... all the logistical stuff. I'd hate to go, post a 1:55 half, and call it a day if I'm not prepared to do well.

2015-04-22 3:36 PM
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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?
Do you have a recent half-marathon time?

How have your Hanson speed and strength workouts been going? When did you start the program-- have you been doing it from the beginning?

I did this plan last year and have a good friend who has done it a few times. He has been very successful (best marathon is 3:20), me not so much (still haven't been able to break my goal of 4 hours). The big difference is that I wasn't always able to get all the mileage in for various reasons, and he was. The plan really does rely on you getting all that mileage in, as you say. The MP runs feel very different than the actual marathon.

So I would say it is not a great chance that you'll be able to do it having missed so much of the mileage.

The thing about the Hanson plan is that it's pretty hard to do it properly and do other activities, like soccer or biking. Also, keep in mind that although the last long 16-mile run is 3 weeks before the race, the plan has much more mileage during the taper than other plans.

2015-04-22 3:41 PM
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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

Originally posted by jennifer_runs Do you have a recent half-marathon time? How have your Hanson speed and strength workouts been going? When did you start the program-- have you been doing it from the beginning? I did this plan last year and have a good friend who has done it a few times. He has been very successful (best marathon is 3:20), me not so much (still haven't been able to break my goal of 4 hours). The big difference is that I wasn't always able to get all the mileage in for various reasons, and he was. The plan really does rely on you getting all that mileage in, as you say. The MP runs feel very different than the actual marathon. So I would say it is not a great chance that you'll be able to do it having missed so much of the mileage. The thing about the Hanson plan is that it's pretty hard to do it properly and do other activities, like soccer or biking. Also, keep in mind that although the last long 16-mile run is 3 weeks before the race, the plan has much more mileage during the taper than other plans.

I ran a 1:52 at the Philly Half in November off of not-so-awesome training. It was right after Army school, so lots of shorter, faster runs and lots of ruck marching. And lunges. Lots of lunges.

I started the program in mid-January. It has been SUPER hard to balance with soccer/biking (only once a week!)/life. 

And on your taper notes: I'd likely run less mileage than stated in the plan for taper, since I haven't been hitting the mileage. 



Edited by ratherbeswimming 2015-04-22 3:42 PM
2015-04-22 4:30 PM
in reply to: ratherbeswimming

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?
You can often get away with less-than-optimal training for a half marathon, but harder for the marathon. You definitely have the potential for it but I don't think it's in the cards this time.

Good news is you are perfectly set up to train for a strong fall marathon. If you want to do 5 days/week I would suggest looking for a different plan that is set up that way or one with a bit more flexibility built in.


2015-04-22 4:47 PM
in reply to: ratherbeswimming

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

It sounds as though your only hang-up is the long drive, the hotel and logistics. 

I think you have to weigh out what those things are worth, notably your time, and make a decision based on that. Likely weighing that against the cost of the race (is it refundable?)

Can you? Maybe. It sounds like it would be close. Running, and not "succeeding" isn't the worst thing (caveat:see follow up questions below.) And, who's to say you are going to have any better availability for the fall? It kind of sounds like you have some non-negotiable time constraints as well as some personal choices (soccer, biking.) Are those priorities going to change for the fall?

If you do decide that it's worth your time and money to go out and try I would ask:

How much psychological damage will it do if you do not make your goal? Can you shake it off, especially given the context and can you learn from it for the next attempt?

How much physical? Have you raced a marathon under-trained? How much recovery did you need? Did it exacerbate injuries? If you are feeling awful during the race can you put ego aside and pull out so as to remain intact for a fall marathon?

 

 

 

It does sound as though you need to pick a plan that works a little better for you. Or maybe even a distance. Marathons take a ton of commitment. Even some exclusivity, especially for someone who is busy. Getting into the technical parts of marathon plans is a whole other conversation. 

 

 

2015-04-22 4:48 PM
in reply to: jennifer_runs

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

Originally posted by jennifer_runs You can often get away with less-than-optimal training for a half marathon, but harder for the marathon. You definitely have the potential for it but I don't think it's in the cards this time. Good news is you are perfectly set up to train for a strong fall marathon. If you want to do 5 days/week I would suggest looking for a different plan that is set up that way or one with a bit more flexibility built in.

I'm looking at fall ones. Might have found one that I can convince my sister to run with me (she's stupid fast).

No matter what, the miles I ran have made me a better runner - even if May 30th isn't showtime! And I'd be looking at slightly different plans / a local coach. Marathoning is relatively unfamiliar territory for me. I just know that my training so far isn't what I think it should be at this point. Hence this thread.

Another option is to race May 30th, but drop to the half. 

 

2015-04-22 5:05 PM
in reply to: Asalzwed

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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

Originally posted by Asalzwed

It sounds as though your only hang-up is the long drive, the hotel and logistics. 

I think you have to weigh out what those things are worth, notably your time, and make a decision based on that. Likely weighing that against the cost of the race (is it refundable?)

Can you? Maybe. It sounds like it would be close. Running, and not "succeeding" isn't the worst thing (caveat:see follow up questions below.) And, who's to say you are going to have any better availability for the fall? It kind of sounds like you have some non-negotiable time constraints as well as some personal choices (soccer, biking.) Are those priorities going to change for the fall?

If you do decide that it's worth your time and money to go out and try I would ask:

How much psychological damage will it do if you do not make your goal? Can you shake it off, especially given the context and can you learn from it for the next attempt?

How much physical? Have you raced a marathon under-trained? How much recovery did you need? Did it exacerbate injuries? If you are feeling awful during the race can you put ego aside and pull out so as to remain intact for a fall marathon?

 

 

 

It does sound as though you need to pick a plan that works a little better for you. Or maybe even a distance. Marathons take a ton of commitment. Even some exclusivity, especially for someone who is busy. Getting into the technical parts of marathon plans is a whole other conversation. 

 

 

I was hoping you'd chime in!

I'm trying to make my state's National Guard team. So, the time goal is key.

Race isn't refundable, but was small, local, and cheap. Won't be sad to say goodbye to it.

I can stop the biking, but I do really, really like the soccer. I believe that I can train effectively and play soccer, I'm just not sure how to execute/balance that. I'd also have to work my training around drill weekends when my potential to get in mileage is really unpredictable. That part CANNOT change. And that's led to some sub-par training weekends, for sure. 

But - this summer - I will have a bit more free time as coaching winds down. Though that's just 2 nights a week. But that means I can move more miles to weekdays on have less to run on drill weekends. 

Psychological? I can handle that part... but I'd be missing a day or two of military training to do it. My Commander has OKed it, but I really don't want to show up having failed to reach the goal, after they made accommodations for me to do it. I guess that's mostly why I feel like if I do it, I have to do it fast enough. I'd feel like I wasted their time more than I wasted mine.

Physical? I think I was  undertrained going into my marathon 3+ years ago. I steadily paced myself for a 4:22, and there weren't any major physical drawbacks. But my goal was mostly to finish, ideally under 10 min miles.

I agree. Marathoning takes A LOT of commitment. And my level of commitment - for some reasons I can control, and some I can't - has been less than stellar

2015-04-22 6:28 PM
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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

Originally posted by ratherbeswimming

Originally posted by Asalzwed

It sounds as though your only hang-up is the long drive, the hotel and logistics. 

I think you have to weigh out what those things are worth, notably your time, and make a decision based on that. Likely weighing that against the cost of the race (is it refundable?)

Can you? Maybe. It sounds like it would be close. Running, and not "succeeding" isn't the worst thing (caveat:see follow up questions below.) And, who's to say you are going to have any better availability for the fall? It kind of sounds like you have some non-negotiable time constraints as well as some personal choices (soccer, biking.) Are those priorities going to change for the fall?

If you do decide that it's worth your time and money to go out and try I would ask:

How much psychological damage will it do if you do not make your goal? Can you shake it off, especially given the context and can you learn from it for the next attempt?

How much physical? Have you raced a marathon under-trained? How much recovery did you need? Did it exacerbate injuries? If you are feeling awful during the race can you put ego aside and pull out so as to remain intact for a fall marathon?

 

 

 

It does sound as though you need to pick a plan that works a little better for you. Or maybe even a distance. Marathons take a ton of commitment. Even some exclusivity, especially for someone who is busy. Getting into the technical parts of marathon plans is a whole other conversation. 

 

 

I was hoping you'd chime in!

I'm trying to make my state's National Guard team. So, the time goal is key.

Race isn't refundable, but was small, local, and cheap. Won't be sad to say goodbye to it.

I can stop the biking, but I do really, really like the soccer. I believe that I can train effectively and play soccer, I'm just not sure how to execute/balance that. I'd also have to work my training around drill weekends when my potential to get in mileage is really unpredictable. That part CANNOT change. And that's led to some sub-par training weekends, for sure. 

But - this summer - I will have a bit more free time as coaching winds down. Though that's just 2 nights a week. But that means I can move more miles to weekdays on have less to run on drill weekends. 

Psychological? I can handle that part... but I'd be missing a day or two of military training to do it. My Commander has OKed it, but I really don't want to show up having failed to reach the goal, after they made accommodations for me to do it. I guess that's mostly why I feel like if I do it, I have to do it fast enough. I'd feel like I wasted their time more than I wasted mine.

Physical? I think I was  undertrained going into my marathon 3+ years ago. I steadily paced myself for a 4:22, and there weren't any major physical drawbacks. But my goal was mostly to finish, ideally under 10 min miles.

I agree. Marathoning takes A LOT of commitment. And my level of commitment - for some reasons I can control, and some I can't - has been less than stellar

Ok,  I am starting to get a better picture. 

The fact that this goal is not arbitrary changes things a bit. I think that given the nature of marathons (essentially you train for a long time, the race is on one single day and there are a ton of variables you cannot control and you can't just go out and try again the next weekend) if I were you and felt this race would not hurt me physically or psychologically given I was under-trained, I might still give it a shot. 

You can always drop out if things don't feel right and you can most certainly get an idea what you need to fix in your next training cycle.

 

I assume this goal must be met by the end of calendar year 2015?

 

 

And as I said, the actual structure of the plan you go with for a fall marathon is a whole other topic but I absolutely think you can keep the soccer and work it into the plan. But I think you need to be really thoughtful. 



Edited by Asalzwed 2015-04-22 6:34 PM
2015-04-22 9:50 PM
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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?
You certainly have the speed to go under 4 as evidenced by the 1:52 half. You and I are about the same speed (1:53 half for me last Navember) and I feel I could get under 4 with adequate volume.

What concerns me is your pacing on most of the runs (not counting the trail run). I would expect with your speed, most of your short to medium runs would fall in the 9:00 to 9:30 range (and feel fairly easy at those paces). Maybe cumulative fatigue grows the pacing closer to 10:00 but personally I wouldn't feel confident I could hold 9:10s for 26.2 miles if I wasn't hitting better than 10 minute miles for the distances you're currently running. The science behind the plan might dispute my opinion but that's just how I'm thinking.

Good luck. I'd like to see you prove me wrong...sub 4 would be awesome.



2015-04-23 10:29 AM
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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

Originally posted by Asalzwed

Ok,  I am starting to get a better picture. 

The fact that this goal is not arbitrary changes things a bit. I think that given the nature of marathons (essentially you train for a long time, the race is on one single day and there are a ton of variables you cannot control and you can't just go out and try again the next weekend) if I were you and felt this race would not hurt me physically or psychologically given I was under-trained, I might still give it a shot. 

You can always drop out if things don't feel right and you can most certainly get an idea what you need to fix in your next training cycle.

 

I assume this goal must be met by the end of calendar year 2015?

 

 

And as I said, the actual structure of the plan you go with for a fall marathon is a whole other topic but I absolutely think you can keep the soccer and work it into the plan. But I think you need to be really thoughtful. 

End of January 2016. So, I have time. But, if I make it, I race with the team in May. So, I'd like a decent amount of time between marathons. 

And structuring the plan around my life is definitely key... and where I'd need to sit down with a coach or more experience marathoner and work out some details.



Edited by ratherbeswimming 2015-04-23 10:30 AM
2015-04-23 10:37 AM
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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

Originally posted by JoelO You certainly have the speed to go under 4 as evidenced by the 1:52 half. You and I are about the same speed (1:53 half for me last Navember) and I feel I could get under 4 with adequate volume. What concerns me is your pacing on most of the runs (not counting the trail run). I would expect with your speed, most of your short to medium runs would fall in the 9:00 to 9:30 range (and feel fairly easy at those paces). Maybe cumulative fatigue grows the pacing closer to 10:00 but personally I wouldn't feel confident I could hold 9:10s for 26.2 miles if I wasn't hitting better than 10 minute miles for the distances you're currently running. The science behind the plan might dispute my opinion but that's just how I'm thinking. Good luck. I'd like to see you prove me wrong...sub 4 would be awesome.

The easy runs in Hanson's plan are intended to be in the range of 1-2 minutes slower than goal pace.

There is one speedwork day (5k pace at the beginning, 10 seconds faster than marathon pace at the end) and one tempo day (marathon pace).

LOTS of people run the easy runs too hard, and the hard ones too easy in any training situation. Mcmillian has a larger range, but the upper limits of the easy run (9:53) and long run (10:16) and recovery run (10:45) are fairly in line with this as well. My 8-10 mile runs certainly should not approach 9:00 except on Tempo run days. But, I would be more confident if I could stick a lot closer to 10:00 on easy days.



Edited by ratherbeswimming 2015-04-23 10:46 AM
2015-04-23 11:08 AM
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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

I'm going to recommend that you NOT race by target time with sub-4 as the goal, but run to enjoy it, and only shoot for sub-4 if it's looking doable at the 20 mile mark. 

 

The truth is that the marathon is a race that highly rewards training volume and severely punishes low training volume, even if you're fast for your target time (which you are.) Countless marathon aspirants had great leadup results at 5k, 10k, and half marathon distances in training, yet fall short (often way short) on the marathon race day, since a 26.2 simply so much farther than 13.1. 

 

I know the Hanson plan is a 'shorter long run' plan that rarely even goes to 20 miles in a long run, but unless you've stuck with the volume and intensity in that plan, I'd err on the conservative side, since the lack of volume in that plan is already a potential drawback, and thus if you further cut back on its volume, it's possible that no amount of intensity will compensate to finish the 26.2 at your 'mcmillan' or whatever target pace. 

 

If you're rarely running 20+ in training, even on the Hanson plan, and then had a few more setbacks in training, you really should be conservative in your race goals, and especially with using HM results as an estimate.  The Mcmillan estimate for a marathon off a 1:53 HM is a 3:57:49; in most cases though, people should add 15 or even 20 minutes to their Mcmillan estimate unless they're running 70mpw and are highly experienced with marathons. If it's an 'easy' marathon course (like mostly downhill like St. George), you probably should still add 5-10' to the estimate.



Edited by yazmaster 2015-04-23 11:09 AM
2015-04-23 11:44 AM
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Subject: RE: Can I break 4 hours?

Originally posted by ratherbeswimming

Originally posted by JoelO You certainly have the speed to go under 4 as evidenced by the 1:52 half. You and I are about the same speed (1:53 half for me last Navember) and I feel I could get under 4 with adequate volume. What concerns me is your pacing on most of the runs (not counting the trail run). I would expect with your speed, most of your short to medium runs would fall in the 9:00 to 9:30 range (and feel fairly easy at those paces). Maybe cumulative fatigue grows the pacing closer to 10:00 but personally I wouldn't feel confident I could hold 9:10s for 26.2 miles if I wasn't hitting better than 10 minute miles for the distances you're currently running. The science behind the plan might dispute my opinion but that's just how I'm thinking. Good luck. I'd like to see you prove me wrong...sub 4 would be awesome.

The easy runs in Hanson's plan are intended to be in the range of 1-2 minutes slower than goal pace.

There is one speedwork day (5k pace at the beginning, 10 seconds faster than marathon pace at the end) and one tempo day (marathon pace).

LOTS of people run the easy runs too hard, and the hard ones too easy in any training situation. Mcmillian has a larger range, but the upper limits of the easy run (9:53) and long run (10:16) and recovery run (10:45) are fairly in line with this as well. My 8-10 mile runs certainly should not approach 9:00 except on Tempo run days. But, I would be more confident if I could stick a lot closer to 10:00 on easy days.

Yeah. Of all the things, the pace of your easy runs concerns me the least.

I sometimes run way below my "prescribed" e pace when I need to. I am talking getting at the high end of the 9:00s and for reference, my 5K PR is 18:4x. Really, when it comes to easy runs they simply need to be easy.



Edited by Asalzwed 2015-04-23 11:58 AM
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