General Discussion Triathlon Talk » Interesting Stats on Local Races Rss Feed  
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2015-07-20 8:45 AM

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Katy, Texas
Subject: Interesting Stats on Local Races
So this is probably really obvious to a lot of the seasoned folks, but to me it has been eye opening so I thought I'd share. As a disclaimer, I noted appears to be true for local/open races, as I'm sure elite races are filled with people that are strong in all three sports, but with the large majority of racers having prevalence in one or two sports, this seems to hold true and (for me anyway) it was a bit counter-intuitive.

When looking at my results at my first couple of triathlons I was always puzzled how I could be, say 30th overall, but looking at my individual sports, I'd be 20th in the swim, 80th in the bike and 35th in the run, for example. So you'd almost want to average the three and see that it's nowhere near 30th. It doesn't take long to realize that not everyone is balanced in the same way, but what gets me is just how much unbalanced, most athletes are (at the local race level) and how simply getting balanced can easily get you to the front, even without being the best at any given sport.

Here are the numbers I ran, and I thought they were interesting enough to share. My results were again counter-intuitive:

Overall: 15th
Swim: 13th
Bike: 23rd
Run: 13th

Here's where it get's interesting. Looking at the numbers, if you were even in all three sports, what would it take to win overall?

Overall: 1st (hypothetical)
Swim: 5th
Bike: 5th
Run: 5th

I think that is interesting as you don't even have to be top three in any given sport, to win everything.

Another interesting thing is to look at how each of the winners of each discipline ended up:

First place runner: 13th overall

First place bike: 292nd overall - I think this was an outlier due to injury or something, so....
Second place bike: 47th overall

First place runner: 38th overall

As I mentioned, I'm sure this is obvious to a lot of the people here, but for noobs like me, it was interesting. I think it goes to show that the best way to move up in the ranks is to work on your weakest sport as it will pay off disproportionately.


2015-07-20 12:02 PM
in reply to: #5129835


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Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races
Cool – I think that makes a lot of sense. Do you think that changes at the bigger national events (pro/elites notwithstanding)?
2015-07-20 12:11 PM
in reply to: 0

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Maryland
Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races

Looking at place isn't really a good metric.  I could be 20th on the swim but only lose 30 seconds to 1st.  And I could put 2 minutes into the second place on the bike.

Add to that the fact that triathlons are full of single sport athletes trying it out you can have a few swimmers that kill everyone but really don't have a complete race to throw down. That would also skew your analysis considerably.



Edited by dmiller5 2015-07-20 12:13 PM
2015-07-20 12:22 PM
in reply to: 3mar

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788
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Across the river from Memphis, Tennessee
Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races
Transition times need to be accounted for as well. In my last event in my AG I out swam, out biked, and out ran the guy that finished one place above me.... but he out transitioned me by enough to beat my time by a few seconds.
2015-07-20 12:37 PM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races

Originally posted by runningmon Cool – I think that makes a lot of sense. Do you think that changes at the bigger national events (pro/elites notwithstanding)?

Last year my son finished 5th overall (1st AG) out of 1700 athletes at AG Sprint Nationals.  Overall he was 8th in the swim, 45th on the bike, and 18th on the run.  You need to be fast in all three events to do well at the big races.......very fast... that's the difference.  Like dmiller said, forget place...... if you are not in that top 1-3% for EVERY event at the national level you can forget about a podium....including AG. 

I can't even tell you how important transitions are.  In 2013 Jr. was 4th overall and beat the 5th place finisher by less than .5 seconds, and that guy had top 10 bike and run finishes.......but his transitions were 44 seconds slower. 



Edited by Left Brain 2015-07-20 12:45 PM
2015-07-20 5:57 PM
in reply to: 3mar

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Ottawa, Ontario
Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races
It is interesting - certainly at the local sprint/oly level around here I always find there are plenty of really good runners who can't do much in terms of the other 2 disciplines. In my experience generally the top swim and bike times are also in the top overall times, not so much for the run.


2015-07-20 6:20 PM
in reply to: 0

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Master
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Eugene, Oregon
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Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races
N=1 for me, but about 90% of the time, I place the same overall in a tri as I do on the swim. No idea why. In most races my placing in the swim and the run are pretty similar (occasionally the run is a bit better if I have a good one, and if the swim is long or in difficult conditions, or I have a sub-par run, my swim is better) with the bike being worse. I guess the stronger bikers make up time on the bike, then I catch them back on the run. I puzzled for ages over one race early on where I ended up 2nd on the swim (actually first--the only pro woman in the race, who was way ahead of me, crashed in the first miles of the bike and DNF'd), 22nd on the bike, 5th or 6th (I think) on the run, and 4th overall. Huh? It really just depends on the skill profile of you and the people you are racing, as well as transitions.



Edited by Hot Runner 2015-07-20 6:20 PM
2015-07-21 9:14 AM
in reply to: Hot Runner

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Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races

Originally posted by Hot Runner N=1 for me, but about 90% of the time, I place the same overall in a tri as I do on the swim. 

The last 3 or 4 sprints I have done I've finished OA within a spot or two of my bike placement.  Once right on the number.  Regardless of the size of the race which is even stranger.  OA - top 10 swim, mid 20's bike, run - that's a seperate story. 

2015-07-21 4:38 PM
in reply to: Goggles Pizzano

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Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races
as someone else has stated, transition times need to be accounted for as well. I've seen fast swimmers take 2-3 minutes to transition to bike. I'm not a fast swimmer, but i can make up a lot of that lost time in transition during a sprint triathlon.
2015-07-21 9:35 PM
in reply to: 3mar


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Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races
It's been my experience when looking at the top 20 or so, it does start to flatten out quite a bit. But you will see some outliers, like the guy that could win if only he could swim

2015-07-22 10:52 AM
in reply to: #5129835


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nashville, Tennessee
Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races
I also think a lot of people, as crazy as it sounds, aren't quite as concerned about their overall place as much as they are seeing their strong splits. For example, a guy might be a top of the pack biker, and is really proud of that, and is not willing to give up a little speed on the bike in order to significantly improve their swim. I know for myself when I look at results for people I know, I NEVER look at their overall time, I look at "Damn he biked 25 mph!" Or "wow he did a 5:30 pace." Of course I'm not speaking of the guys hoping to win the race, but the guys just hoping to have a good showing.


2015-07-22 2:19 PM
in reply to: 3mar

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Extreme Veteran
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Ridgeland, Mississippi
Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races

Triathlon is one sport.  It's not a swim race, bike race (although it is to a lot of people), and running race.  You have to be good at each of them to excel.  When fighting for an AG spot you may get away with leaning on your strength, but to compete for an overall podium you have to kind of be good at everything. 

2015-07-22 2:22 PM
in reply to: msteiner

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1502
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Katy, Texas
Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races
Originally posted by msteiner

Triathlon is one sport.  It's not a swim race, bike race (although it is to a lot of people), and running race.  You have to be good at each of them to excel.  When fighting for an AG spot you may get away with leaning on your strength, but to compete for an overall podium you have to kind of be good at everything. 




The point here though, is that when going for the OA podium, you don't have to be the best at any of them. You don't have to be the top 3 at any of them. That is what I found interesting.
2015-07-22 2:28 PM
in reply to: 3mar

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Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races

Originally posted by 3mar
Originally posted by msteiner

Triathlon is one sport.  It's not a swim race, bike race (although it is to a lot of people), and running race.  You have to be good at each of them to excel.  When fighting for an AG spot you may get away with leaning on your strength, but to compete for an overall podium you have to kind of be good at everything. 

The point here though, is that when going for the OA podium, you don't have to be the best at any of them. You don't have to be the top 3 at any of them. That is what I found interesting.

That's mostly true.  But what you will find with people who are consistently winning/getting on OA podium is that WILL frequently put in the top split in an event at some races, and a top 3 split in A LOT of races.  Sometimes they will have the top split in all three events.  But no, it's not a prerequisite to getting on that OA podium....but top end splits are.

2015-07-23 2:35 PM
in reply to: 3mar

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Overland Park, KS
Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races
I've noticed the same thing, in particular at a couple of our longstanding local races. A while back our local Master's group convinced a couple of the real swimmers to sign up for a tri, that pretty much pushed everyone down a couple spots in the swim rankings with no real impact on the overall. Single sport athletes home on summer break also seem to be frequent offenders of unbalanced splits.

Since you mention comparing results, rather than looking at place you might find better comparative value in looking at your time relative to say the average time of the top 10%, do this across each discipline, including transitions. The extra data tends to reduce impact of the outliers, it will also make obvious where there is useful time to gain.
2015-07-24 10:00 AM
in reply to: 3mar

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Apex, NC
Subject: RE: Interesting Stats on Local Races
Here's a slant on this. As I've gotten more experienced and competitive (in my AG mind you, I'm not competitive OA), my balance of disciplines has changed. But I've come to suspect that it's not because of the disciplines themselves but more because of my fitness, especially the longer the race.

I used to be pretty balanced (I joked that I wasn't a triple threat, I was a triple mediocrity) but my swim was usually my strongest and my run was my weakest. But now my swim has become my weakest in terms of place and my run has become the strongest. I was puzzled by this because I'm not a naturally fast runner After my last IM 70.3 I asked... did I really have the 10th best run out of 300 or whatever guys in my AG? I've started to realize though that it's probably that I was fitter than the others and probably paced better because I've been to this rodeo 8 times before.

So here's an interesting question, if the swim was last would I have been 10th in the swim instead of 24th?

BTW, my individual ranks were S=24, B= 13, R= 10, AG= 8. Again, note the progression.


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