Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

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2015-10-12 8:44 AM

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Elite
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PEI, Canada
Subject: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

Haven't seen one of these in a while and the last one I did was for this same race in 2011.  The thread for that is found here

My training log has all of my running volume and I added notes on runs from the beginning of September that were something other than just a run.  Basically if there are no notes, it was just an easy run.

This is the course - no major hills to speak of but not flat.  Mostly pavement but about 5-6k in the middle on a crushed gravel trail.  Temperature is likely to be cool - maybe about 5C / 41F (which I think is perfect).

Winner gets crowned the reigning BT Half marathon time predictor!  

I don't have any recent standalone run times to help with anything.  I've done a few other HM since the thread in 2011 with times of 1:37 and 1:34 on a hilly course (but probably 200m short).  Also did a 1:36 on a day that I wasn't feeling good.  I've done 3 half IMs with run times in the 1:45 - 1:49 range.

I'm 6'1" and ~170 lbs and I run like a swimmer....

Have at it!

2015-10-12 9:02 AM
in reply to: axteraa

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Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

1:33:20

Good Luck !

2015-10-12 11:51 AM
in reply to: Goggles Pizzano

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Champion
10018
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, Minnesota
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Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

I'm impressed with the progress you've made since that thread in 2011!  I'm going in the wrong direction...

I'll say 1:34.  I think that's quite a relentless climb.  The long slow ones are the worst, I think. 

Have a good race!

2015-10-12 4:41 PM
in reply to: BikerGrrrl

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Pro
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Bellingham, WA
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

How can I tell anything from your logs? It's all in kilometers.

I will however throw out a guess of 1:32:30.  Good luck with your race.

2015-10-12 4:52 PM
in reply to: axteraa

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Extreme Veteran
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Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

1h31m30s
2015-10-12 4:55 PM
in reply to: popsracer

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Master
6834
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Englewood, Florida
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

I am throwing it out there:

1:29:59

I think if it all lines up, you can do it!

2015-10-12 5:49 PM
in reply to: 0

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Pro
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Melbourne FL
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Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

Aghhhhh, the log is in km!

1:30:11



Edited by Donto 2015-10-12 5:50 PM
2015-10-13 8:44 AM
in reply to: Donto

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Elite
7783
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PEI, Canada
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

Sorry about the metric stuff.  I miss how BT used to convert all of that for you.

2015-10-13 12:36 PM
in reply to: axteraa

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Master
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Los Angeles, CA
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!
2015-10-14 8:21 AM
in reply to: axteraa

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Elite
3779
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Ontario
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

You put in a lot of miles during the season, but that looks like a tough course.  Going with a 1:31 - flat course and I think you're breaking 1:30 (do you have flat in PEI?).

2015-10-14 10:14 AM
in reply to: axteraa

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1502
1000500
Katy, Texas
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!
Is this The Price is Right rules? If so, I say $1.00.



2015-10-15 9:43 AM
in reply to: 3mar

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Elite
7783
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PEI, Canada
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

It appears that I jinxed myself with this thread.  I've had a nasty sinus cold for the last two days.    Looking back, it appears that the same thing happened to me when I did this in 2011.  I can't see this turning out well on Sunday

2015-10-15 10:40 AM
in reply to: axteraa

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Master
6834
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Englewood, Florida
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

Originally posted by axteraa

It appears that I jinxed myself with this thread.  I've had a nasty sinus cold for the last two days.    Looking back, it appears that the same thing happened to me when I did this in 2011.  I can't see this turning out well on Sunday

You're killing me, my friend! I hope for you to have the best race possible.

2015-10-15 12:12 PM
in reply to: axteraa

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Master
2759
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Los Angeles, CA
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!
Originally posted by axteraa

It appears that I jinxed myself with this thread.  I've had a nasty sinus cold for the last two days.    Looking back, it appears that the same thing happened to me when I did this in 2011.  I can't see this turning out well on Sunday




Noooooooooooooooo!!!
2015-10-15 1:15 PM
in reply to: axteraa

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1300
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Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

Originally posted by axteraa

It appears that I jinxed myself with this thread.  I've had a nasty sinus cold for the last two days.    Looking back, it appears that the same thing happened to me when I did this in 2011.  I can't see this turning out well on Sunday

I don't want to hear any excuses.  Get out there, HTFU and get me 1:32:20 !  I have space reserved in sig for, "the reigning BT Half marathon time predictor!"

Hope you are feeling better by the weekend, good luck !

2015-10-15 1:35 PM
in reply to: axteraa

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Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

Originally posted by axteraa

It appears that I jinxed myself with this thread.  I've had a nasty sinus cold for the last two days.    Looking back, it appears that the same thing happened to me when I did this in 2011.  I can't see this turning out well on Sunday

1:31:47...but only because you have a cold now.

2015-10-17 2:30 PM
in reply to: Jason N

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Elite
7783
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PEI, Canada
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

Well, I'm still sick.  I bailed on the HM and am doing the 10k instead.  Maybe I can hold my HM pace for 10k and we can extrapolate from that to determine a winner...   

2015-10-17 2:50 PM
in reply to: Jason N

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Pro
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Camp Hill, Pennsylvania
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!
Originally posted by Jason N

Originally posted by axteraa

It appears that I jinxed myself with this thread.  I've had a nasty sinus cold for the last two days.    Looking back, it appears that the same thing happened to me when I did this in 2011.  I can't see this turning out well on Sunday

1:31:47...but only because you have a cold now.

My prediction is that will be Arend's time for the 10k. :-D
2015-10-17 3:23 PM
in reply to: axteraa

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Pro
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Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

Since you're sick and it's now a 10k....... 45:00 and two zig zags. 

2015-10-18 1:56 PM
in reply to: Left Brain

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Elite
7783
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PEI, Canada
Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!

42:34 - the only zigs and zags was dodging puddles from the rain!

I basically held the pace I was hoping to hold for the HM.  Given that I was sick, I'm going to say it was plausible...

2015-10-18 3:52 PM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Lets play - Predict my half marathon time!
Nice work ! Based on McMillan and your time I think bikergirl win

Edited by Goggles Pizzano 2015-10-18 3:53 PM

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