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2016-05-23 9:18 PM
in reply to: chirunner134

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
This is neither SFW nor 100% non-partisan, but it's both entertaining and interesting. I think we all have a general idea of how effed the primary/caucus system is, but it might be even worse than you think.

https://youtu.be/_S2G8jhhUHg




2016-05-23 9:43 PM
in reply to: jmk-brooklyn

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn I understand his appeal to people who are entertained by his showmanship and theatrics. I understand his appeal to people who, as CD said, are driven by their basest qualities and who enjoy the way he insults people, speaks glowingly of violence against women and children, torture, and war crimes, and openly encourages violence against people who disagree with him. I understand his appeal to people who think that he's going to right all of the perceived "wrongs" against white people, and who believe he will put the poor and minorities in their place.

For the majority of his supporters (myself included) these are things we have to look past in order to support him.

Clearly. I guess, for me, there are certain things I'm willing to overlook and certain things I'm not. Inciting violence against people, and encouraging bigotry and hatred as a means to acquire personal power is not one of them.

agreed.    I guess your bandwagon groweth.  

Tuwood - for a person as well spoken (I guess written, as we have never spoken) as yourself, how do you overlook the 4th grade vocabulary? (4th grade is generous).   Is he really that limited or does he design his speeches for the lowest common denominator, which is pretty demeaning to the American people, IMO.

2016-05-24 8:22 AM
in reply to: bootygirl

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by bootygirl

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn I understand his appeal to people who are entertained by his showmanship and theatrics. I understand his appeal to people who, as CD said, are driven by their basest qualities and who enjoy the way he insults people, speaks glowingly of violence against women and children, torture, and war crimes, and openly encourages violence against people who disagree with him. I understand his appeal to people who think that he's going to right all of the perceived "wrongs" against white people, and who believe he will put the poor and minorities in their place.

For the majority of his supporters (myself included) these are things we have to look past in order to support him.

Clearly. I guess, for me, there are certain things I'm willing to overlook and certain things I'm not. Inciting violence against people, and encouraging bigotry and hatred as a means to acquire personal power is not one of them.

agreed.    I guess your bandwagon groweth.  

Tuwood - for a person as well spoken (I guess written, as we have never spoken) as yourself, how do you overlook the 4th grade vocabulary? (4th grade is generous).   Is he really that limited or does he design his speeches for the lowest common denominator, which is pretty demeaning to the American people, IMO.

And I guess Hillary speaking with a thick southern accent when in the south is not demeaning.  Or Obama speaking at a black college graduation and sounding like he is from the hood is not demeaning.  I'd call it knowing your audience.

2016-05-24 8:29 AM
in reply to: 0

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn This is neither SFW nor 100% non-partisan, but it's both entertaining and interesting. I think we all have a general idea of how effed the primary/caucus system is, but it might be even worse than you think. https://youtu.be/_S2G8jhhUHg

He did a great job of explaining the problems.  I know I've said it before, but no matter what we think of Sanders and Trump they did a great job of exposing this mess.  I truly had no idea it was so broken prior to this year.

**edit**  Oh, and 3% participation at an orgy?   hahahahahaha



Edited by tuwood 2016-05-24 8:30 AM
2016-05-24 8:43 AM
in reply to: bootygirl

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by bootygirl

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn I understand his appeal to people who are entertained by his showmanship and theatrics. I understand his appeal to people who, as CD said, are driven by their basest qualities and who enjoy the way he insults people, speaks glowingly of violence against women and children, torture, and war crimes, and openly encourages violence against people who disagree with him. I understand his appeal to people who think that he's going to right all of the perceived "wrongs" against white people, and who believe he will put the poor and minorities in their place.

For the majority of his supporters (myself included) these are things we have to look past in order to support him.

Clearly. I guess, for me, there are certain things I'm willing to overlook and certain things I'm not. Inciting violence against people, and encouraging bigotry and hatred as a means to acquire personal power is not one of them.

agreed.    I guess your bandwagon groweth.  

Tuwood - for a person as well spoken (I guess written, as we have never spoken) as yourself, how do you overlook the 4th grade vocabulary? (4th grade is generous).   Is he really that limited or does he design his speeches for the lowest common denominator, which is pretty demeaning to the American people, IMO.

Thanks for the compliment, but writing has always been a struggle for me.  I was one of those kids that hated english classes and barely passed them while taking all of the advanced math and science classes and acing them.  I still remember when my english comp professor in college handed me my first paper back telling me it was the worst thing he'd ever read and looks like I had my dog write it.  I was really upset that he thought my dog was that dumb.   

Anyways, I've seen a few articles trying to insinuate that Trump was dumb because he spoke at a lower grade level.  There was even a university that did an extensive study on all the candidates earlier this year which was kind of entertaining.

It's really nothing more than a cheap attempt to make people think he's dumb, but it's a bit of a tough sell when you're talking about somebody who built and runs a multi-billion dollar enterprise in my opinion.

I've been to several political events over the years and typically the speaker just reads a speech or drones on about something half incoherent.  Trump is different, he really connects with the audience in a way I haven't seen before.  He conveys big problems in simple ways that people can understand and he repeats a lot of the same things over and over to make them resonate with the voters.

The Democrats have had a fair amount of success marginalizing candidates in the past by labeling them as being dumb.  Often times they use speaking ability as the rationale because it's most apparent to people.  George W. Bush was a great example of that.  He wasn't an intellectually dumb guy at all, but he was not a very good speaker so he "sounded dumb" and it stuck in many ways.

On a side note the study that had Trump at 4th grade put Hillary at 6th grade (i believe) and Bernie at 9th or 10th grade.  So if we're going by grade school I am not comfortable with a 4th grader or a 6th grader running the country and I would have to go with Bernie. lol

2016-05-24 9:31 AM
in reply to: bootygirl

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by bootygirl

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn I understand his appeal to people who are entertained by his showmanship and theatrics. I understand his appeal to people who, as CD said, are driven by their basest qualities and who enjoy the way he insults people, speaks glowingly of violence against women and children, torture, and war crimes, and openly encourages violence against people who disagree with him. I understand his appeal to people who think that he's going to right all of the perceived "wrongs" against white people, and who believe he will put the poor and minorities in their place.

For the majority of his supporters (myself included) these are things we have to look past in order to support him.

Clearly. I guess, for me, there are certain things I'm willing to overlook and certain things I'm not. Inciting violence against people, and encouraging bigotry and hatred as a means to acquire personal power is not one of them.

agreed.    I guess your bandwagon groweth.  

Tuwood - for a person as well spoken (I guess written, as we have never spoken) as yourself, how do you overlook the 4th grade vocabulary? (4th grade is generous).   Is he really that limited or does he design his speeches for the lowest common denominator, which is pretty demeaning to the American people, IMO.




I try not to conflate how someone speaks with whether or not they're intelligent. There's a difference between being deliberately plain-spoken and being inarticulate. The way Trump speaks makes me cringe, but I don't think he's unintelligent. I don't even think that it's calculated, exactly, since I don't think he thinks much about what he's going to say-- it's just the way he talks. I don't imagine that he's much different in the boardroom than he is at a rally. Same goes for Bush (W), Jimmy Carter, etc.

I do think, for example, that Palin's actually not very smart. I don't think she's thoughtful or well-read or insightful or intellectually curious, and I don't think she's ever had an interesting idea or thought that she didn't crib from someone smarter than her.


2016-05-24 1:46 PM
in reply to: jmk-brooklyn

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Deep in the Heart of Texas
Subject: RE: Election 2016

For anyone looking for an alternative to Trump or Clinton - Johnson/Weld

"Feel the Johnson"

2016-05-24 2:28 PM
in reply to: jmk-brooklyn

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn
Originally posted by bootygirl

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn I understand his appeal to people who are entertained by his showmanship and theatrics. I understand his appeal to people who, as CD said, are driven by their basest qualities and who enjoy the way he insults people, speaks glowingly of violence against women and children, torture, and war crimes, and openly encourages violence against people who disagree with him. I understand his appeal to people who think that he's going to right all of the perceived "wrongs" against white people, and who believe he will put the poor and minorities in their place.

For the majority of his supporters (myself included) these are things we have to look past in order to support him.

Clearly. I guess, for me, there are certain things I'm willing to overlook and certain things I'm not. Inciting violence against people, and encouraging bigotry and hatred as a means to acquire personal power is not one of them.

agreed.    I guess your bandwagon groweth.  

Tuwood - for a person as well spoken (I guess written, as we have never spoken) as yourself, how do you overlook the 4th grade vocabulary? (4th grade is generous).   Is he really that limited or does he design his speeches for the lowest common denominator, which is pretty demeaning to the American people, IMO.

I try not to conflate how someone speaks with whether or not they're intelligent. There's a difference between being deliberately plain-spoken and being inarticulate. The way Trump speaks makes me cringe, but I don't think he's unintelligent. I don't even think that it's calculated, exactly, since I don't think he thinks much about what he's going to say-- it's just the way he talks. I don't imagine that he's much different in the boardroom than he is at a rally. Same goes for Bush (W), Jimmy Carter, etc. I do think, for example, that Palin's actually not very smart. I don't think she's thoughtful or well-read or insightful or intellectually curious, and I don't think she's ever had an interesting idea or thought that she didn't crib from someone smarter than her.

I've never disliked Palin, but you did do a good job of describing her.   I get a little defensive when people call her "dumb" because I don't feel it's accurate, but I do tend to agree with you that she's not very intellectually curious and seems to just parrot the right wing agenda with her cute accent.   

2016-05-24 2:29 PM
in reply to: Hook'em

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by Hook'em

For anyone looking for an alternative to Trump or Clinton - Johnson/Weld

"Feel the Johnson"

Do we get to label him as offensive and sexist because of the campaign slogan?  hehe  (btw, I love it)

2016-05-24 2:53 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Champion
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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn
Originally posted by bootygirl

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn
Originally posted by tuwood

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn I understand his appeal to people who are entertained by his showmanship and theatrics. I understand his appeal to people who, as CD said, are driven by their basest qualities and who enjoy the way he insults people, speaks glowingly of violence against women and children, torture, and war crimes, and openly encourages violence against people who disagree with him. I understand his appeal to people who think that he's going to right all of the perceived "wrongs" against white people, and who believe he will put the poor and minorities in their place.

For the majority of his supporters (myself included) these are things we have to look past in order to support him.

Clearly. I guess, for me, there are certain things I'm willing to overlook and certain things I'm not. Inciting violence against people, and encouraging bigotry and hatred as a means to acquire personal power is not one of them.

agreed.    I guess your bandwagon groweth.  

Tuwood - for a person as well spoken (I guess written, as we have never spoken) as yourself, how do you overlook the 4th grade vocabulary? (4th grade is generous).   Is he really that limited or does he design his speeches for the lowest common denominator, which is pretty demeaning to the American people, IMO.

I try not to conflate how someone speaks with whether or not they're intelligent. There's a difference between being deliberately plain-spoken and being inarticulate. The way Trump speaks makes me cringe, but I don't think he's unintelligent. I don't even think that it's calculated, exactly, since I don't think he thinks much about what he's going to say-- it's just the way he talks. I don't imagine that he's much different in the boardroom than he is at a rally. Same goes for Bush (W), Jimmy Carter, etc. I do think, for example, that Palin's actually not very smart. I don't think she's thoughtful or well-read or insightful or intellectually curious, and I don't think she's ever had an interesting idea or thought that she didn't crib from someone smarter than her.

I've never disliked Palin, but you did do a good job of describing her.   I get a little defensive when people call her "dumb" because I don't feel it's accurate, but I do tend to agree with you that she's not very intellectually curious and seems to just parrot the right wing agenda with her cute accent.   




I admit that I'm probably biased because of my own educational background, but I strongly believe that being President of the United States is a hard job, and I think that, like a lot of things, we as a culture have convinced ourselves that anyone can do it. It requires a deep understanding of politics, geography, history, law, sociology, not to mention that a person has to be persuasive, a good negotiator, adaptable, and emotionally stable.

Even with the armies of advisors and cabinet members, a president still has a obligation to know enough on their own about the hundreds of topics on which they have to render decisions to make those decisions intelligently. That means they have to read, and understand, and study and commit to memory and grasp subtle concepts and not just be someone who can fly by the seat of their pants and make decisions all the time that are based on their gut feel.

I just don't think Palin possesses the intellectual horsepower to be able to grasp the volume of information and complex concepts that a President must have at their fingertips in order to make sound, educated decisions. Even if a president is only choosing from a list of options given to them by their advisor (a la President Ranier Wolfcastle in the Simpsons movie) they still need to be smart and educated enough to grasp the historical significance of their decisions and to fully understand all of the possible ramifications of their choice. If they rely entirely on their advisors for this perspective, who's really running the show?
2016-05-25 8:11 AM
in reply to: jmk-brooklyn

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Oh it's election 2016… I thought this was an ED thread...


2016-05-25 9:20 AM
in reply to: mdg2003

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

One of my FB friends who is probably the most liberal of them all just posted this today.  He's a big Bernie supporter and I'm pretty sure the lady in the video is as well, but she did a really good job of making the case of why/how Trump will beat Hillary.  Her motive is pretty obvious that Bernie needs to win the nomination for the DNC to have a chance.  (warning, some NSFW language)

https://www.facebook.com/iamaliceanil/videos/1282066555154730/

 

2016-05-26 11:56 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Champion
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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by tuwood

One of my FB friends who is probably the most liberal of them all just posted this today.  He's a big Bernie supporter and I'm pretty sure the lady in the video is as well, but she did a really good job of making the case of why/how Trump will beat Hillary.  Her motive is pretty obvious that Bernie needs to win the nomination for the DNC to have a chance.  (warning, some NSFW language)

https://www.facebook.com/iamaliceanil/videos/1282066555154730/

 




(I thought you were the most liberal of your friends? )

I've heard some of those arguments before, and there's no doubt that Hillary has shown before that she fades late in the race. At this exact moment, I'm not worried about the polls that show Trump gaining ground because it's not really apples to apples. When Trump hadn't yet cemented the nomination and neither had Hillary, she was leading. Now he's the presumptive nominee and she's still battling on two fronts. Once Sanders concedes, whether it's at the convention or before, and assuming (safely, I think) that he will throw his endorsement behind her and encourage his supporters to do likewise, I suspect the polling will shift back to where she's leading Trump.

I don't think the email thing is going to stick, even with the new information and the rebuke from the JD. I think, not unlike Benghazi, that everyone who has an opinion on the subject has already formed it. I doubt anyone is going to change their decision about voting for her-- for or against-- based on this or any other new revelations.

2016-05-26 12:24 PM
in reply to: jmk-brooklyn

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn
Originally posted by tuwood

One of my FB friends who is probably the most liberal of them all just posted this today.  He's a big Bernie supporter and I'm pretty sure the lady in the video is as well, but she did a really good job of making the case of why/how Trump will beat Hillary.  Her motive is pretty obvious that Bernie needs to win the nomination for the DNC to have a chance.  (warning, some NSFW language)

https://www.facebook.com/iamaliceanil/videos/1282066555154730/

 

(I thought you were the most liberal of your friends? ) I've heard some of those arguments before, and there's no doubt that Hillary has shown before that she fades late in the race. At this exact moment, I'm not worried about the polls that show Trump gaining ground because it's not really apples to apples. When Trump hadn't yet cemented the nomination and neither had Hillary, she was leading. Now he's the presumptive nominee and she's still battling on two fronts. Once Sanders concedes, whether it's at the convention or before, and assuming (safely, I think) that he will throw his endorsement behind her and encourage his supporters to do likewise, I suspect the polling will shift back to where she's leading Trump. I don't think the email thing is going to stick, even with the new information and the rebuke from the JD. I think, not unlike Benghazi, that everyone who has an opinion on the subject has already formed it. I doubt anyone is going to change their decision about voting for her-- for or against-- based on this or any other new revelations.

I do agree that polls now will continue to shift.  It's fun to watch the momentum, but I'm sure it will go back a forth a few times before we're done.

The email thing could stick if all the people blocking it get out of the way, but in effect I tend to agree that it won't stick because there's just not enough time.  Even if everything goes absolutely worse case on it we'll be in the middle of next year before it ever comes out and Hillary would just pardon herself by then.  Lol

2016-05-27 2:32 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
And the winner for "Most lukewarm endorsement ever" goes to: "Little Marco" Rubio:

Via Twitter:
"In Florida only 2 legitimate candidates on ballot in Nov. I wont vote for Clinton & I after years of asking people to vote I wont abstain."
2016-05-27 4:38 PM
in reply to: jmk-brooklyn

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn And the winner for "Most lukewarm endorsement ever" goes to: "Little Marco" Rubio: Via Twitter: "In Florida only 2 legitimate candidates on ballot in Nov. I wont vote for Clinton & I after years of asking people to vote I wont abstain."

I just read a long thread about his endorsement on a conservative site last night and it was pretty entertaining.  Most people were along the lines of Trump should just ignore him.  lol
That being said, I agree it was pretty weak endorsement but I do at least give him credit for not pouting in the corner like several of the other candidates are.   



2016-06-08 12:58 PM
in reply to: tuwood

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Champion
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Subject: RE: Election 2016
interesting. Sanders is not technically out at this time. I do not think those 500 people who pledged to Hillary day one will switch but if they did He could still win.
2016-06-08 1:41 PM
in reply to: chirunner134

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by chirunner134 interesting. Sanders is not technically out at this time. I do not think those 500 people who pledged to Hillary day one will switch but if they did He could still win.

I mean what else is he going to do with his time between now and July?

2016-06-08 1:57 PM
in reply to: msteiner

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
So Clinton won CA handily.....only data I saw said she was up by 13% of the data that had come on. So how did the polls get it so wrong? Most were showing it virtually tied.

My theory is this: People lie to pollsters. People tend to tell the pollsters what they think they want to hear.
2016-06-08 2:34 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by Rogillio So Clinton won CA handily.....only data I saw said she was up by 13% of the data that had come on. So how did the polls get it so wrong? Most were showing it virtually tied. My theory is this: People lie to pollsters. People tend to tell the pollsters what they think they want to hear.

i have yet to understand the polls.  When I think they're way off they're dead on and when I think they're dead on they're way off.

 

2016-06-08 2:47 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by Rogillio

So Clinton won CA handily.....only data I saw said she was up by 13% of the data that had come on. So how did the polls get it so wrong? Most were showing it virtually tied.

My theory is this: People lie to pollsters. People tend to tell the pollsters what they think they want to hear.


Also do you think day before you are told your guy lost you are going out to vote?


2016-06-08 3:08 PM
in reply to: Rogillio

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by Rogillio

So Clinton won CA handily.....only data I saw said she was up by 13% of the data that had come on. So how did the polls get it so wrong? Most were showing it virtually tied.

My theory is this: People lie to pollsters. People tend to tell the pollsters what they think they want to hear.



There are those in the Bernie Camp (who have elevated conspiracy theory to an art form, IMO) who feel that the networks' having called the election for Hillary on Monday depressed voter turnout which cost Bernie the election.

538.com had Hillary with an 85% chance to win the election as of last week, so I doubt it would have made a difference, and, anyway, he was never going to win NJ, so Hillary didn't even need CA to secure the nomination.

2016-06-09 8:05 AM
in reply to: jmk-brooklyn

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

Originally posted by jmk-brooklyn
Originally posted by Rogillio So Clinton won CA handily.....only data I saw said she was up by 13% of the data that had come on. So how did the polls get it so wrong? Most were showing it virtually tied. My theory is this: People lie to pollsters. People tend to tell the pollsters what they think they want to hear.
There are those in the Bernie Camp (who have elevated conspiracy theory to an art form, IMO) who feel that the networks' having called the election for Hillary on Monday depressed voter turnout which cost Bernie the election. 538.com had Hillary with an 85% chance to win the election as of last week, so I doubt it would have made a difference, and, anyway, he was never going to win NJ, so Hillary didn't even need CA to secure the nomination.

I honestly think Bernie's hanging out for the FBI primary.  There's obviously no possible way for him to win and there's no way he can sway enough super delegates either, so the only logical explanation is that he's hanging on "just in case" she gets whacked.

In reality I think me being appointed as Trumps VP is likely a higher probability than Hillary getting indicted prior to the election.  lol

2016-06-09 9:00 AM
in reply to: tuwood

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Subject: RE: Election 2016
Originally posted by tuwood

I honestly think Bernie's hanging out for the FBI primary.  There's obviously no possible way for him to win and there's no way he can sway enough super delegates either, so the only logical explanation is that he's hanging on "just in case" she gets whacked.

In reality I think me being appointed as Trumps VP is likely a higher probability than Hillary getting indicted prior to the election.  lol




Welcome to the white house Mr VP. Jk. yeah you are completely right and if she does go down before I suspect it will be far closer to the election.
2016-06-09 11:05 AM
in reply to: chirunner134

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Subject: RE: Election 2016

I'm not familiar with the methodology of the "Big Data" poll so it's just another data point of many, but I did find the article interesting:

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/opinion/2016/06/07/opinion-big-data-reports-latino-support-for-trump-on-rise-at-37/

The thing I found most interesting was how Trump and Clinton are virtually identical in their support/dislike.  That's a really big deal because Hispanics overwhelmingly vote Democrat in past elections.  I think Romney got something like 25% of the Hispanic vote in 2012.

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