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To Drill or not To Drill?
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Yes, we should start drilling right away to help with gas prices.49 Votes - [57.65%]
No, drilling won't help......36 Votes - [42.35%]

2008-06-19 5:32 AM
in reply to: #1475191

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Giver
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Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
ScottoNM - 2008-06-18 4:46 PM

Regarding refineries: Current US refinery utilization is only 88%,  and hasn't varied by more than 5% over the last 2 years. 10 years ago the US was limited by refinery capacity but  today that is not a limiting factor.

Look at these data, in the summer of 1998 refinery utilization was 100%, today it is only 88%. The Texas gulf coast refineries are running at less than 80% capacity, and refined less crude in March 08 than they did in Oct 07.

Caveat: There may be some mismatch in crude grade (i.e. heavy vs. light) and refinery capabilities that prevent these numbers from reaching 100%, but 88% is still on the low end of the data range.

Besides which, if refining capacity was the limiting factor, crude should be cheap because there should be lots of crude sitting around waiting to be refined. Obviously that's not the case.

I had read that too. ANd I guess you have to ask why we're only refining at 88% capapcity. Is it because there's not enough crude? Or is it because the oil companies are entirely unmotivated to refine more. I mean, why bring unused refineries on line or build new ones and in turn have to higher more employees and increase their operating when their profit margins are so high? If they produce more gas, the price is just going to go down, right? So, if I own an oil company, what's my motivation to do that? Altruism? 



2008-06-19 8:40 AM
in reply to: #1475488

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Master
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Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
Renee - 2008-06-18 5:05 PM

And, if the argument is that we should drill so that oil prices will drop now, then they are correct in making the argument that drilling now will not change things now.

IMO, it's a huge mistake to believe it requires more oil in supply to lower prices. Oil trades on future expectations. Right now, the largest producers are enemies of the US and intentionally restrict their production to keep price high. Every barrel that the US "intends" to produce domestically reduces the impact these states have on price. Right now we've got a massive increase in drilling in existing domestic fields. As price starts to crumble, in order to keep profits high, the restricted production "agreements" start to break down as states change policy to put more supply into the market. The traders reverse and start to play the short side of oil and prices tumble. All this happens without much actual change in supply/demand. It's all future expectations of supply/demand which may or may not be correct and can be manipulated by US policy.
2008-06-19 9:09 AM
in reply to: #1476236

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Philadelphia, south of New York and north of DC
Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?

breckview - It's all future expectations of supply/demand which may or may not be correct and can be manipulated by US policy.

That's interesting.

How does the current state, and future speculation, of the dollar play into all of this?



Edited by dontracy 2008-06-19 9:10 AM
2008-06-19 9:42 AM
in reply to: #1476286

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Master
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Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
dontracy - 2008-06-19 8:09 AM

breckview - It's all future expectations of supply/demand which may or may not be correct and can be manipulated by US policy.

That's interesting.

How does the current state, and future speculation, of the dollar play into all of this?



A weak dollar makes all commodities more expensive for those paying in dollars. But that could easily be changed by raising US interest rates. If those holding dollars were able to get a higher real return, more people would buy dollars raising its value and making oil less expensive for those buying in dollars. But of course, raising interest rates has big negatives in a slow economy.

A weak dollar has big positives such as making US products attractive to foreign buyers. High oil prices have positives like encouraging real conservation. Markets tend to take care of all these issues automatically as long as politicians don't mess things up (which they always do and will.)
2008-06-19 10:00 AM
in reply to: #1475996

Elite
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Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
run4yrlif - 2008-06-19 4:32 AM

I had read that too. ANd I guess you have to ask why we're only refining at 88% capapcity. Is it because there's not enough crude? Or is it because the oil companies are entirely unmotivated to refine more. I mean, why bring unused refineries on line or build new ones and in turn have to higher more employees and increase their operating when their profit margins are so high? If they produce more gas, the price is just going to go down, right? So, if I own an oil company, what's my motivation to do that? Altruism?

Jim, from what I understand the "crack spread," which is basically the profit margin for refining, is so low right now that there is no motivation to increase refining rates. The spread has dropped 60% since May 2007 and is now (as of April) about $13 per barrel. Basically there is at the moment no money to be made in refining.

The spread will go up under some combination of lower prices for crude and higher prices for refined products.

See for example:

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/04/21/a-slippery-spread/

 

ETA: All of this data supports the argument that lack of refinery capacity is NOT the problem. (although re-tooling of refineries to handle heavier crude may be an issue, still haven't gotten a definitive read on that)

 



Edited by ScottoNM 2008-06-19 10:02 AM
2008-06-19 10:48 AM
in reply to: #1476408

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Champion
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Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?

ScottoNM - 2008-06-19 10:00 AM  "crack spread"

Heh.



2008-06-19 11:34 AM
in reply to: #1476558

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COURT JESTER
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Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
DerekL - 2008-06-19 10:48 AM

ScottoNM - 2008-06-19 10:00 AM  "crack spread"

Heh.

Hope you haven't had to treat anyone with that condition.
2008-06-19 11:40 AM
in reply to: #1474559

Subject: ...
This user's post has been ignored.

Edited by AcesFull 2008-06-19 11:42 AM
2008-06-19 4:29 PM
in reply to: #1476691

Master
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Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
AcesFull - 2008-06-19 10:40 AM
the problem is that we burn too much of it.

Voluntary conservation has been tried and failed over and over since the 1970s. Human nature will not allow people to significantly conserve until price causes pain.


drilling today won't help with prices until my 10 year-old daughter, or possibly her younger brother starts driving. 


Every available drilling rig in the US is working 24 / 7 adding new supply daily.
2008-06-19 4:50 PM
in reply to: #1476667

Elite
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Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
tupuppy - 2008-06-19 10:34 AM
DerekL - 2008-06-19 10:48 AM

ScottoNM - 2008-06-19 10:00 AM "crack spread"

Heh.

Hope you haven't had to treat anyone with that condition.

knew you guys would like that one!

 

2008-06-19 4:51 PM
in reply to: #1476691

Elite
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Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
AcesFull - 2008-06-19 10:40 AM

More refineries are needed, as is a greater supply, but these are weak needs compared to the real problem, which is consumption.

Agreed 100%, which is why higher gasoline prices are good.

 



2008-06-20 10:36 AM
in reply to: #1477449

Elite
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Raleigh
Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
ScottoNM - 2008-06-19 4:51 PM
AcesFull - 2008-06-19 10:40 AM

More refineries are needed, as is a greater supply, but these are weak needs compared to the real problem, which is consumption.

Agreed 100%, which is why higher gasoline prices are good.

 

 

You know, it is this kind of thinking that drives me crazy and well frankly pi$$es me off.... That is a very narrow minded thought and it is not just people driving to the movies, the pool, or even SUV's that if they stopped the the gas would come down to $2 a gallon....

Not only do 18 wheelers use gas to provide products to you like food, milk, and other chemicals but also planes (which get me to my wife and her to me), tractors that get all of our food products from the land to the trucks.

But also products like these have patroleum in them and the high price of oil effects them ... Hearing aids, bandages, artificial limbs, heart valves, soap, carpet, paint, balloons, photographic film, insecticides, margarine, telephones, polyester, ball point pens, sunglasses, trashbags, nylon rope, crayons, toothbrushes deodorant, nail polish, tennis shoes, lipstick, and all plastics... I could go on for ever

So the point is, when oil goes up it effects more products than you think about than just gas. It makes the price of products that have oil in them go up also. It is not only just about the gas we drive people... So when you say :hell ya to high gas prices but then walk into the grocery store and bit*h about the high price of food, and other products it is your own fault....

Yes I agree we need to find alternative fuel sources... but for now lets dance with who we brought.

2008-06-20 2:59 PM
in reply to: #1478693

Elite
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Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
trigods - 2008-06-20 9:36 AM

Yes I agree we need to find alternative fuel sources... but for now lets dance with who we brought.

But without high oil and refined product prices, we have no incentive to discover and develop alternatives. The progress in deploying alternatives over the last 30 years should be evidence of that.

The problem is "who we brought" is $60 oil, and she is now a lot higher class of dame at $130.

 

2008-06-20 4:22 PM
in reply to: #1479321

Elite
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Raleigh
Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
ScottoNM - 2008-06-20 2:59 PM
trigods - 2008-06-20 9:36 AM

Yes I agree we need to find alternative fuel sources... but for now lets dance with who we brought.

But without high oil and refined product prices, we have no incentive to discover and develop alternatives. The progress in deploying alternatives over the last 30 years should be evidence of that.

The problem is "who we brought" is $60 oil, and she is now a lot higher class of dame at $130.

 

 

There will always be incentive to discover and develop alternatives, its called a patent and money....
Gas prices have really only been high in the last 10 years but some of the technology that has come down the pike has taken a long time to develop (the Tesla car for example). People are always going to want to test the limit of developments and technology, that is why we are not all driving model T's and have windmill providing our energy....

There are tons of companies that out there that have been looking for alternative ways to provide energy; they have been for years.

Capitalism will be the way we get alternative fuels...

2008-06-20 4:34 PM
in reply to: #1479433

Elite
3130
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Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?
trigods - 2008-06-20 3:22 PM

Capitalism will be the way we get alternative fuels...

huh, turned out we were in agreement all along!

 

2008-06-24 2:09 PM
in reply to: #1474987

Champion
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SRQ, FL
Subject: RE: To Drill or not To Drill?

sgoehner - 2008-06-18 4:01 PM Part of the reason that refining capacity is so low is that there has not been a new refinery built on US soil in 29 years.

Actually there are 7 new refineries being buit right now. Too bad they are in Iran.

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8703160400

So Iran's main weakness was that they had all this oil but no way to refine it. An enemy of Iran could cut off the gas imports and effectively stare them out. So they they are going to get 7 new refineries and we'll get none.  And no one sees an issue with this?

Idiots ruining this country... total idiots (and both of the new guys are no better)



Edited by TriRSquared 2008-06-24 2:10 PM


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