Race strategy: Oly vs. HIM vs. Sprint

You would not physically be able to do a sprint tri in Z5.  One would be lucky to do it Z4 if they were trained to mentally take that for an hour.

Even a typical sprint tri is an endurance event and while the pace will be faster, it is still not going to be above your LT very much (unless you are breaking an hour for them).

For a sprint, I will go about 100 - 105% or so of my LT pace (I am one of those sub-hour guys), fo an oly. I will try to be right at LT pace (95 - 98% range) and for a HIM I will be around 90% or so depending on my fitness level.

Layman's terms?  My bike splits will vary by about 1 mph as I go longer.  24-25 for the sprint, 23-24 for the oly, 22-23 for the HIM.  Same with my running, but about :30 different per mile difference each step. 6:20, 6:50, 7:20 (ideally ... I have yet to do that in a HIM as I go too hard on the bike usually, but the sprint and oly times are fairly accurate).

Treat the race as a supported training day. Stay mostly in z2 with occasional z3-z4 efforts thrown in. With your limited base, if you push too hard you're going to be quite sore for a few days.

Just curious about your recent long run. What kind of plan would have you doing almost 50% of your mileage to date this month in one run?

Race at at your HIM pace.  If you feel good after 1-2 miles of the run, kick it in to 2nd gear and pass all the weenies who went too hard on the bike.

Oh, and see this article from someone wiser than me. 

Race it a little harder than a HIM and a little easier than a sprint. 

You should be pushing the whole time at a level that feels somewhat uncomfortable, but that you can maintain for some time.  The guidance from Mike Ricci in the link provided above is pretty good.

I'm an idiot - I'm using the 26 week Beginner IM plan, but I don't trust the time-based plan, and use the Galloway Beginner Marathon plan for guidelines to distance.  Obviously, based on my training blog, this doesn't work!  So I'll be doing more shorter to intermediate distances, and maybe only another couple really longer runs between now and IMFL.  Thanks for the feedback on the Oly!  I got sick last year and couldn't do it.  Will use it as a training race, OWS and all.