Astana strategy for rest of Tour (possible spoiler)

A number of people can give better answers, but here's my take:

Mont Ventoux (on Saturday) is a mountaintop finish.  Those usually present the largest changes in GC.  In the case of the Ventoux, you're talking about an 1800M ascent.  There will be some carnage on that mountain.  Some podium contenders may pop, some may get away. 

I think that since Contador will not pop on the mountain (unless I personally get my ticket to Paris, fly there, and slap him in the face as he's climbing), and he's got 4:11 over his nearest competitor.  He doesn't have to play a lot of games with the Schlecks.  Therefore, it may be possible for Lance and Klodden to actually race this time around. 

I think it's safe to say that Schleck won't pop either, but can Lance gain a min on him? Can Klodden gain almost 2 min on him?  That's why they race. 

Again, someone will jump-in with better analysis, but those are my observations.  Kagphin is a great resource as is 4everblue on this topic.



Wiggins doesn't have a team that can climb so much as he has Van DeVelde who is still a little hurt I believe.  he could get some time back, but no way will he climb-away from the GC guys to take an advantage especially not Lance or Schleck.

Here is my take... Astana has 5 more guys (I am not including LA or Kloden.)

The team pushes the pace without getting too crazy at first -- you don't want to break down or get injured unnecessarily.
But then they just keep upping the tempo and the stakes.
You rotate 2/3 of the bottom five guys to take turns being the lead.

This way, if the team splits,  there are still lead men to offer a wheel.

This way, you are either extending leads, or forcing other teams to make daring risks that you are ready to shut down.

If someone does gain a few seconds on the big three, they pay to the point that they are useless afterwards. Which is becoming less relevant as we get to the end, but it needs to be, "Take the gamble, but if it fails you have nothing left for a second try."

Edited by eabeam 2009-07-23 3:32 PM

^^ Problem with that is there is no afterwards.  The stage tomorrow is a sprinter's stage that will keep most of the peloton together.  Ventoux is on Saturday.  There's no racing on Sunday because the last stage is ceremonial.  Who care's if you're useless on Sunday, the average speed going into Paris is about 20mph.  Around the Champs Ellysees, it gets up higher, but those guys are all jacked by that time to finish the tour.

So it HAS to happen on the Ventoux if anywhere.  There will be gambles-galore there by all teams, but I think Contador takes 1st (unless he's injured or popped for doping) and I think LA and Schleck is a coin-toss.

Lance and Kloden will both attack Schleck. Lance is ahead of Wiggins and simply does not give Wiggins any chance of getting back past him. I'd go as far as to say that without Vandevelde's gutsy ride dragging him along, Wiggins would have lost more time on Wednesday. I'd be pretty amazed if VDV can match that performance, hence I think Wiggins gets dropped. For Lance, it's all about the 1'15" he needs to edge past Schleck. Kloden only needs 13" more than that. If the two of them can get away and beat Andy up the mountain by 1'30" or more, it's 1-2-3 for Astana.

Contador only needs to cover the moves. Hell, he could even let Armstrong and Kloden get a minute or 2 up the road, but I doubt he does. If he actually initiates the attacks, it's clear that he's a selfish a** out racing for no one but himself. Based on past performance and comments, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see him attack his own teammates to go for the stage win.