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PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
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BQ...bwahaha
3:40 to 3:49
3:50 to 3:59
4:00 to 4:09
4:10 to 4:19
4:20 to 4:29
4:30 to 4:39
4:40 to just finish it!

2009-12-04 5:07 PM

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Subject: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
Please check out my training logs before answering.
This is the second time that I have done this.  I won't ask again. (For this marathon).  Just comparing the results.
Hints:
Today's 9 mile easy run was done at a 9:08 pace.
Ran a 5 mile race in 38:XX


2009-12-04 5:14 PM
in reply to: #2543794

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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
I was going to go with 4-4:10, but had to drop down to the 4:10-4:20 as your mileage is really low for marathon training.
2009-12-04 5:47 PM
in reply to: #2543794

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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
There's a lot of mixed signals in your logs (race and training)...couldn't confidently predict under 4:20...
2009-12-04 6:23 PM
in reply to: #2543794

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Master
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
What do we win if we are the closest to the pin?

I'll predict 4:14:37, but that is assuming you don't get Its A Small World stuck in your head at mile 10.

Good luck!
2009-12-04 6:47 PM
in reply to: #2543794

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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
Mike, I hate to put the pressure on you, but I'm picking a 3:49.55.  I checked my almanac Wink and January should be coolish in Florida so we expect some good times.   
2009-12-04 10:31 PM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
McMillan says you should do 3:50.  Don't take this the wrong way, but I'll predict 4:00.

Either way, have a great run!


2009-12-04 10:38 PM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time

I'm not seeing that you ever run fast at all. Your last longer race was a 9:22 pace. Your volume for a marathon is very light. I didn't see any 20 milers. Based on that I'm going with 4:10-4:15. Your 5 mile race time would indicate a sub 4 marathon, but the rest of your training doesn't.

What time are you shooting for and what training did you do to support that?

2009-12-05 12:58 AM
in reply to: #2543794

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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
I'm in for a 4:45-4:50

2009-12-05 5:56 AM
in reply to: #2544020

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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
Donskiman - 2009-12-04 10:38 PM

I'm not seeing that you ever run fast at all. Your last longer race was a 9:22 pace. Your volume for a marathon is very light. I didn't see any 20 milers. Based on that I'm going with 4:10-4:15. Your 5 mile race time would indicate a sub 4 marathon, but the rest of your training doesn't.

What time are you shooting for and what training did you do to support that?


I used Hal Higdon Intermediate 1.  I didn't rest properly for my first 20 miler, so it became an 18 miler.  (In the five days before my intended 20, I raced a 5 miler, ran an easy 5, swam for an hour, biked for 2 hours, a marathon pace 9, an easy 13, drove 10 hours).

I will be running in Jingle All the Way 10k on December 13.  I am planning for a 51:xx time.

The reason for my inconsistent training is not my desire, but that I am always teetering on the edge of potential injury.  Nothing that I can really do about it, just the way that my body is.

Edited by pga_mike 2009-12-05 5:59 AM
2009-12-05 7:19 AM
in reply to: #2544111

Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time

pga_mike - 2009-12-05 6:56 AM
Donskiman - 2009-12-04 10:38 PM

I'm not seeing that you ever run fast at all. Your last longer race was a 9:22 pace. Your volume for a marathon is very light. I didn't see any 20 milers. Based on that I'm going with 4:10-4:15. Your 5 mile race time would indicate a sub 4 marathon, but the rest of your training doesn't.

What time are you shooting for and what training did you do to support that?


I used Hal Higdon Intermediate 1.  I didn't rest properly for my first 20 miler, so it became an 18 miler.  (In the five days before my intended 20, I raced a 5 miler, ran an easy 5, swam for an hour, biked for 2 hours, a marathon pace 9, an easy 13, drove 10 hours).

I will be running in Jingle All the Way 10k on December 13.  I am planning for a 51:xx time.

The reason for my inconsistent training is not my desire, but that I am always teetering on the edge of potential injury.  Nothing that I can really do about it, just the way that my body is.

So why are you running another marathon? I got injured this year and bagged the marathon, so that I can hopefully run one in the future. Seems like the smart thing to do to me. If it's "just the way your body is", then you need to figure out how to fix that. My injuries have come from what I now believe is a pelvic imbalance, not a leg length discrepancy as was originally diagnosed. Perhaps that's how my body is, but I know how to fix it, and so I am working on it, by doing yoga to keep the tight stuff stretched out and doing pilates to strengthen my core, so everything stays aligned.

Figure out what's wrong with you and DO something to fix it. And don't run any marathons until you have it figured out. Most likely, I will not be running Marine Corps this year, and will be putting it off for the third time. That sucks - it does, I know. But now that I know what's actually wrong with me, I can work to fix it. And most likely, I will not have enough time from the layoff that I'm on now, once it's over in anywhere from 3 to 9 more weeks, to rebuild properly. So I will probably stick to nothing longer than a half marathon this year, and maybe do a couple of them to make sure I've got a solid base. Then try for a marathon in 2011. 

  

2009-12-05 8:09 AM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
How does one know he is "teetering on the edge of potential injury"?


2009-12-05 8:19 AM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time

Depends on the marathon course, weather conditions, etc.

I won't venture to guess yet.

2009-12-05 10:54 AM
in reply to: #2544160

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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
the bear - 2009-12-05 8:09 AM How does one know he is "teetering on the edge of potential injury"?


I wondered that to when I read it.  Just rambling but maybe he knows his body really well??  an old injury, that has consistent warning pains ??Or a consiseant ache and pain that doesn't go away.??  He doesn't really say what  the injury is.  So I was wondering if it was from running too fast, or a training load injury.

  I'm never sure myself, and sometimes I probably error on the side of caution too often,

eta... I didnt' see a many long runs in his logs, a 15 miler, and he went from 50 miles in sept to 120 miles in Oct, which is a big jump, or I would considered it a big jump for me. so I'm thinking it's lingering from that if anything.

Edited by Gaarryy 2009-12-05 10:58 AM
2009-12-05 1:41 PM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
I'll put my bet at 4:18. Good luck! I've been building my base for a potential mary in the spring. Looks like you could have used one more month. I'm interested to see how you do.
2009-12-05 2:02 PM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time

I'm in with 4:22:30

 

 

2009-12-05 6:29 PM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
the bear - 2009-12-05 8:09 AM How does one know he is "teetering on the edge of potential injury"?

Left achilles & calf are achy and super tight.  Iliopsoas also very tight and very achy.

If I played a jumping sport, I'd probably pay for it big time.  I am monitoring my aches carefully, and skip runs when my conditions seem to worsen.

I think that I am getting more in tune with my body, and what it is capable of.  Slow running, yes!  Jump serving in volleyball, NO!


2010-01-13 7:20 AM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
4:22:08

I started with the hope that a 3:59:59 was possible.  At 13.1 (2:04), I still had a (slight) chance.

I was feeling good and on pace for 4:12-ish at mile 17.  Just before mile 18, I was running on the flattest part of the road, near the edge when my I rolled my right foot on the edge of the road.

Long story short, my foot swelled, my pace fell off, and I finished with the above time.  (I am calling the doctor today).

Next marathon plan will include:
1) A little more volume
2) More pace work
3) Earlier/longer walk breaks

Thanks for your guesses and your support!  Congrats to Brown Dog for the best guess.  I owe you a Guiness!

Edited by pga_mike 2010-01-13 7:21 AM
2010-01-13 7:22 AM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
brown_dog_us - 2009-12-05 3:02 PM

I'm in with 4:22:30

 

 



Pretty accurate guess!

Mike glad you finished despite rolling your ankle. Congrats!
2010-01-13 9:00 AM
in reply to: #2543794

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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
Damn, 4:18 was for the taking.  Nice job Mike on a pretty short training build.  I'm taking the "more 22+" comment as a note since my plan has me doing 3 20s as my longest longs right now.  I'd like to do that race at some point in the next couple years when my 2 year old gets just a little older.
2010-01-13 10:28 AM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time

Nice job finishing. Sounds like if you hadn't rolled your ankle my guess would have been in the right range.

Next time, more volume for a much longer time period would likely help you. Many of the plans seem to be in the 12-16 week range, but if you train for a solid 6 months you'll be more likely to have a better race. IMO-YMMV.

2010-01-13 6:21 PM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
3 people voted AFTER the race. 


2010-01-13 6:34 PM
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Subject: RE: PGA Mike asks you to predict his 1/10/10 Dis marathon time
pga_mike - 2010-01-13 7:21 PM 3 4 people voted AFTER the race. 


Fixed.
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