Is 4:30 doable for me? (Page 2)

No doubt, absolute power numbers don't tell the whole story.  But they can give an indication of what a reasonable range would be for a time goal.  Add in some additional info (weight, course, position) and I would think you could get a time prediction pretty close by comparing to others. 

Nate's numbers are impressive, and combined with his weight and position (at least from his avatar), I would expect a really solid bike split.  I'm quite a bit lighter, but am also proportionally lower in my FTP.  The benchmarks provided by you, Michael, Dan and Mark are encouraging. 

I don't think that 'testing' numbers necessarily predict HIM performance.  (I view testing as simply one way to help estimate something--in this case, FTP or LTHR.)  But they do serve as useful baromoters for how hard you can expect to push yourself and still run well.  And they 'work' to the extent you understand what they tell you--and what they don't. 

I agree with all of this...especially #2.  Unfortunately, we dont' always have the benefit of past race results that are current enough.  Over an offseason, when fitness can significantly improve, those tested power numbers are the best basis for developing a pacing plan.  Once the race starts, an experience rider will adjust based on feel/conditions/etc..

IMO, the ability to keep a steady targetted output during a race is one of the greatest benefits of have a PM. 

I am doing the same race, while my goals are not nearly as fast as Nate's, being familiar with the race the last two years, there is an "x" factor at this race, the swim length. Two years ago the swim was short, to the tune of about 7-10 minutes, if i remember, i swam it in 25min and some change, the fast guys were swimming in 19mins, then last year the course was about 2-3/10ths long, fast guys were about 27-30mins, that is a very large difference in distance and time, when you are splitting hairs between and 4:30-4:40, you have less time to play with to save overall time, it is not like we are trying to achieve 6-7 hours and just need to HTFU a little on the bike or run to make up a few minutes here and there. If the swim is long again, you are losing time on a total race goal and vice versa. I personally hope the swim is spot on or short this year.

bryancd - 2011-05-25 11:37 AM Thats a great point. Nate, is 4:30 just a number or is it a time wich would be competitive on the course? The best way to evaluate your potential perfromance is to review the previous results. That will tell you much more about the race then just an arbitrary time goal. It is a race against other people, after all.

Pretty close to top 10 overall either year Bryan.

a 4:30 in 09 woulda had you around 10th OA, a 4:30 last year is 4th OA.

my personal uninformed opinion is that 2:25 for him on this bike course would be slow at his current level of performance at his target zones. totally unsubstantiated of course.

These two statements go hand in hand.  For HIM/IM, the power meter keeps me honest at the end of the bike leg.  At my target watts, my legs aren't toast, but I tend to drop off in power anyhow unless I'm watching it.  It's a combination of little things: weather getting hotter as the day goes on, tired of being in the saddle, etc.

bryancd - 2011-05-25 12:35 PM

Fred Doucette - 2011-05-25 11:31 AM

bryancd - 2011-05-25 1:28 PM

Rudedog55 - 2011-05-25 9:48 AM Pretty close to top 10 overall either year Bryan.

a 4:30 in 09 woulda had you around 10th OA, a 4:30 last year is 4th OA

Great, so Nate, are you a top 10 OA guy?

OK now you are putting some pressure on the guy lol

Well, that's where the rubber meets the road! I mean all this talk about FTP this and sub 4:30 that is abstract. Results are final. If it's a fairly competitive race and sub 4:30 is top ten, then Nate will be need to be a top 10 guy. Go for it!

You can't control who shows up on race day, only your fitness and execution.  From year to year the same finishing time can result in very different placement. 

I agree that the swim could 'make or break' my somewhat arbitrary 4:30 time goal, and I'm hoping that the swim is the correct distance. I've been swimming well lately, and I think that my swim goal of around 32-33 minutes (if the correct distance) is reasonable.

I'm heading down with some members of my tri team this Saturday to ride the course, so that should give me an idea of what to expect. I'm only doing one loop of the course because my half marathon is the next day.

Not that I can really compare sprint races with a HIM, but I won my AG and was 6th overall in a sprint a few weeks ago and had similar results in a duathlon back in the fall. My goal in this race is to win my AG, and top 10 is definitely reasonable based on results from the past two years.

I admit to spending far too much time on athlinks and coolrunning comparing times from previous races and scouting out the competition. I know I'm only really racing against myself, but I do like looking at results from previous years.

There is one guy that I've raced against before - he finished third in this race last year, posting a 2:27 bike, but the course was two miles longer. In an indoor TT a few months ago I beat him, so I know my bike should be in that range. His runs are also pretty close to mine, and he ran 1:30 last year.

I guess I won't actually know until the race gets under way, but I feel that my training has been going well. Hopefully the half marathon this weekend will go well, and then I can determine what my pace can be for the run in the HIM.