IM time predictor from 70.3 (Page 2)

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obohlman

2012-07-30 7:14 PM

in reply to: #4320202

Veteran

247

Irvine

Subject: RE: IM time predictor from 70.3

obohlman - 2012-07-19 10:32 AM

So many factors to consider, but from what others have said, this seems like a decent "guideline" from which to START a prediction.

Just a few factors that would add/subtract, possibly with a significant impact on time would include terrain, temperature and fitness. As was also pointed out, 1 hour on a 10 hour IM vs 1 hour on a 16 hour IM is very different as a percentage of the time.

I did my first HIM, the very challenging Auburn Half on May 20, with 6k feet of climbing on the bike and about 1.5k of climbing on the run. The first 500-800 of my swim was horrible, but a learning experience that I will take to the Vineman next Saturday the 28th....my first Full. At Auburn, I did a 5:32 (lost about 6-8 minutes due to a wrong turn on the bike and then a dropped chain 3/4 mile from T2...had to run with my bike the final 3/4 mile!)....so this "baseline" of "x2+1 hour" would predict at 12 hour full....the terrain on the Vineman is hilly, but nothing like the 1/2 that I did....the temp should be comparable, but my fitness has continued to improve. I'm expecting sub 11 hours, with a 10:30 being my goal time....but, as I've been told, you just don't know how your body will react to a full until you've done it!

(Oh, I have installed a "chain catcher" so I'll never drop that damn chain again!!)

So I thought I'd provide an update here as I just completed my first IM, the Full Vineman this past Saturday...

From above, the 1/2 IM I did was a VERY difficult one, with insane climbing. The Full Vineman ended up with around 3100 feet of elevation gain, at least according to my Garmin 310XT.

Finish time was 10:39:50...and that included a 15 minute delay on the bike for me between mile 97 and 98 due to a crash. Without the delay I'd have been in the range of 10:24. (Some poor guy hit a water bottle and went flying. Sounds like the guy will be alright, but they had the road closed awaiting a helicopter to take him away. I was the first person stopped...another 30 to perhaps 50 piled up behind me before they took him away. I hear that he had a few broken bones...no fun at all!)

So in my case, I actually went double HIM time less 25 minutes. (Or less 40 minutes if you remove the 15 minutes I was waiting)

Just shows that anything is possible....the course, the weather and of course your fitness!

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seitz1124

2012-07-31 8:46 PM

in reply to: #4316983

Veteran

209

Windermere, FL

Subject: RE: IM time predictor from 70.3

I'm loving this thread! I had always heard the general "rule" was double your half ironman and add 2 hours. I'm loving the consensus that it double plus one hour! I just completed the Florida half in 7:04 and I would love to have a 15 as the first number on the clock in Panama City in November. My training is going as planned and my fingers are crossed!

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crt87

2012-08-02 12:47 PM

in reply to: #4316983

Member

100

Subject: RE: IM time predictor from 70.3

Doesn't really mean much (more of just an interesting tidbit) and I know it's completely due to course, but in 2011 my IM was actually faster than double my half IM time.

Branson - 6:56

B2B - 13:43

The difference is courses is very extreme but I thought is was kind of funny seeing that and comparing it to the normal double + 1 hour theme.

Baowolf

2012-08-02 2:44 PM

in reply to: #4316983

Elite

5316

Alturas, California

Subject: RE: IM time predictor from 70.3

HIM range 5:44 & 5:34, IM's 12:15 and 11:40. So call it 5:40x2= 11:20 + 1 hour would be 12:20 but I did 11:40 at last one so I have more endurance than speed. So the best you can hope for is probably double your HIM speed if you train really well. But more likely it will slide from 10 to 60 min for being pretty well trained for the IM to longer if less well trained or much harder course or whatever.

Edited by Baowolf 2012-08-02 2:47 PM

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bigpaps

2012-08-02 3:20 PM

in reply to: #4316983

Member

247

Loves Park

Subject: RE: IM time predictor from 70.3

Can't say for certain, but I think a lot of it also has to do with the course and also how prepared you are fo the IM. For instance, if someone was training to PR for a HIM and did somewhere around 5:15 but does not have the correct volume for an IM, they will pry bonk on the run and end up a lot worse than an hour plus. Also, if the half was on a fast bike course and then the full on a hilly bike course, this could also throw it off...

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Kido

2012-08-02 4:20 PM

in reply to: #4344076