Estimating race finishing time

Forum guidelines BT super discount
General Discussion Triathlon Talk » Estimating race finishing time Rss Feed  
Moderators: k9car363, alicefoeller Reply
2006-08-23 9:16 AM

User image

Champion
19812
50005000500020002000500100100100
MA
Subject: Estimating race finishing time

Here is a method to estimate what your finishing time might be for an upcoming tri given sort of best case scenerio.

http://www.triathloncalculator.com/

For my A spring Int'l distance race it was within 4 minutes of my actual finish time...my run was faster and my bike slower then estimated but it was raining and 55 the whole race.

For kicks I did my last sprint, and it was very close again...4 minutes faster than I really did...but it assumes 3' for transitons and race was big and I was at about 4:20 total for my two transitions so that is part of it....estimated swim split 13:28, mine 15:46 but someone unzipped my wetsuit and it took some time to get it zipped back up and back on my way; bike estimate 32:26 I did 32:35...9 seconds off, run estimate 25:39 and I did 24:55 so over estimated by 44 seconds...seems pretty accurate.

I just ran the numbers for my upcoming A International distance race Sunday, it suprised me with the time, faster than I thought I'd do...interesting....we'll see...but so far it overestimates my speed by about 4 minutes.

Give it a try for a past race and see how close it is for you.....it is fun to do.

2006-08-23 2:05 PM
in reply to: #519417

User image

Resident Matriarch
N 43° 32.927 W 071° 24.431
Subject: RE: Estimating race finishing time

well, I was hoping to be a bit faster than that prediction, so I'm not going to give it away just yet.  We'll see how it plays out on Sunday.

Nice link Kathy, thanks.

 

2006-08-23 4:31 PM
in reply to: #519417

User image

Master
2411
2000100100100100
Goodyear, AZ
Subject: RE: Estimating race finishing time
Thanks for posting that. It seems like a useful tool. I wrote down the estimate. We'll see what happens in a few weeks when I do my first tri.
2006-08-23 6:51 PM
in reply to: #519417

User image

Veteran
225
10010025
Dothan, Alabama
Subject: RE: Estimating race finishing time
I've used that calculator twice, and it has been accurate within 2 minutes on both sprints. For my most recent race it was incredibly accurate for the bike and run, but off by 2 minutes on the swim. My fault, my OW times aren't nearly as fast as pool times yet. However, I was 1 1/4 min faster in my transitions than the calculator allows, so I was < 1 min slower than my predicted time. We'll see how it does for my oly in 4+ weeks.
2006-08-23 7:14 PM
in reply to: #519417

User image

Member
45
25
Subject: RE: Estimating race finishing time
Thanks for the heads-up, I think this will help out with the training a little also. I can see if I am progressing.
2006-08-23 10:02 PM
in reply to: #519417

User image

Champion
19812
50005000500020002000500100100100
MA
Subject: RE: Estimating race finishing time

The swim error can be from a number of factors.....mainly swim distances in open water tend to be off. Some are short and some are long....bikes are easy to figure as most of us have bike computers and we can always drive the run course.

Cool that it was so close for you too!

We'll see how it does for my A race Sunday..if it is close I'll be thrilled

2006-08-24 5:42 AM
in reply to: #519417

User image

Extreme Veteran
579
500252525
Subject: RE: Estimating race finishing time
I used this thing recently for the first time for the National Sprint championship in AL, it estimated my time to within :30 second overall (it had me a little slower than I actually did but that was due to it's estimation of 3:00 for transitions) and only a handful of seconds off any of the three legs with the cycling only :05 seconds off. After that I went back to my other races and compared times... I don't know the formula but it is fairly accurate for me at least.

Edited by Special K 2006-08-24 5:43 AM
2006-08-24 8:49 AM
in reply to: #519417

User image

Member
198
100252525
Baton Rouge
Subject: RE: Estimating race finishing time
I hope it is close for me, for my first IM in Florida. My goal is to break 14:00 and the calculator gave me a time of 13:55.
2006-08-29 8:05 AM
in reply to: #519417

User image

Champion
19812
50005000500020002000500100100100
MA
Subject: RE: Estimating race finishing time

My A race was Sunday and I wondered how the Triathloncalculator would work.

I was about 1:45 faster than it estimated...which surprised me as it has in the past estimated about 4 minutes faster than I actually have finished. The calucator estimates 3' for transtions and at this race most folks that are my pace are more like 5 minutes...so I figured the estimated time plus 4' for the being off and 2' more for transtions. 

swim estimate 34:22, actual 29:49
bike est. 1:19:14, actual 1:19:48
run est. 1:06:20, actual 1:07:04

A couple of people tried it as well and had their time estimates way off. I asked them if they did 20' TT on the bike and 5K's recently and they hadn't so they estimated. I guess the better the data going it, the more likely it will be closer to accurate. Weird most folks had the swim slower than they really did...if you play with it swim pace doesn't change much.

I think it is a lot of fun to play around to see what how changing different things like volume or TT speed effects estimated times...but I'm a numbers junkie.

2006-08-29 8:21 AM
in reply to: #519417

User image

Regular
408
100100100100
Rhode Island
Subject: RE: Estimating race finishing time
I think it doesn't take the training background into consideration enough for a longer race. I did an estimate for an IM with a background of:

swim: 26,000 yards
bike: 500 mi
run: 200 mi
1 year experience and said I would finish an IM in 11:30.

I wish.
2006-08-29 10:00 AM
in reply to: #525462

User image

, Texas
Subject: RE: Estimating race finishing time
paTRIck - 2006-08-29 8:21 AM

I think it doesn't take the training background into consideration enough for a longer race. I did an estimate for an IM with a background of:

swim: 26,000 yards
bike: 500 mi
run: 200 mi
1 year experience and said I would finish an IM in 11:30.

I wish.


The training volume should be weekly:

2.
Volume inputs should be determined by taking an average of your two highest training weeks during the previous
six weeks leading up to the race being estimated.

It predicted my race this past Sun within 2 minutes. It was with 15 secs for both the run and swim splits. I may have been aggressive with my 20k bike TT estimate as I've not done one.



2006-08-29 10:05 AM
in reply to: #525595

User image

Regular
408
100100100100
Rhode Island
Subject: RE: Estimating race finishing time
camy - 2006-08-29 11:00 AM



The training volume should be weekly:

2.
Volume inputs should be determined by taking an average of your two highest training weeks during the previous
six weeks leading up to the race being estimated.


Ahh. RTFM, I guess. My bad.
New Thread
General Discussion Triathlon Talk » Estimating race finishing time Rss Feed