whats going on in the arctic (Page 3)

Originally posted by tuwood

I never quite understood it either.  Even from an economics standpoint it's cheaper to get traditional drilled oil out of the ground versus the fracking process.  I suspect the fracking growth is related to some government regulation making it impossible to dig new wells, but allowing fracking.  I don't know, just guessing.

Fortunately the low oil prices are kind of "fixing" the fracking problem for us.  It costs more to get it out of the ground than what they can sell it for.  That's a sure fire way to stop it.  hah

Originally posted by drewb8

One of the interesting things is that we're actually running out of phosphorus.  The only source for it is mines and P deposits are pretty limited so there's real concerns for agriculture in a few decades when we run out of it.  It sounds like it might be possible to reclaim it from waste water and whatnot except that we haven't developed the technology yet.  We assume the technology is possible but we probably won't find out for sure until the easy P is gone.

I work in air quality and N enrichment issues so I share your concern about nutrient enrichment and eutrophication.  I'm guessing you're familiar with the Science papers on planetary boundaries where they discuss the dangers of crossing the lines on nutrient enrichment.  But the reason I worry about it less than climate change is that nutrient enrichment is reversible.  When N enrichment is reduced we generally see recovery in ecosystems within a few decades, though it varies from place to place and there is some debate about what recovery means.  But what we're doing to the climate now is a one way street.  Humans are responsible for 95%+ of the warming we are experiencing now.  There are no natural forcings that can explain anything close to the magnitude we're seeing.  And even if emissions dropped to zero today (which obviously we're not going to do) we've already baked another 1* or so of warming in.  The lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere is on the order of millennia, so whatever warming we add now is going to stay with us for a long, long time  (yes CO2 fertilization increases plant growth, but plants also need water and moderate temperatures to grow and the research now points to there being an overall loss of biomass).

  Like leftbrain said, the earth is going to be just fine, even if humans won't.  I think that water and air quality are bigger threats to us in the near term , but we haven't even reached the opening act of climate change yet.  We're still on the page in the book where they tell you who published it and when the copyright is and some weird numbers.  As I mentioned, not only is it non-reversible for all intents and purposes, but, as the US military says in their analysis of climate change, it's a threat multiplier.  It's going to exacerbate the water and air quality problems we already have and make the even more difficult to deal with.

BTW - interesting about the sanitizer in the water.  I've heard about pharmaceuticals and such, but I didn't know that stuff stays in as well.

Originally posted by Justin86

Great points there.

I do strongly believe in our contribution to global warming.  Something that I want to do more research on is not just with CO2 but with methane.  There are huge deposits of partially decayed organic matter in the permafrost in the arctic.  I have seen this mentioned around before, but haven't read to much into it.  If permafrost thaws, and large amounts of CH4 are released I think it could have a disastrous synergistic effect on the warming of our earth with our current human contributions.  

But like you said LB is right (damn that man!) The earth will go on and recover, with our with out us.

I'd just like to be there for it.

Originally posted by dmiller5

record temperatues, again.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/18/scientists-are-floored-by-whats-happening-in-the-arctic-right-now/

Originally posted by crusevegas

1st, I didn't read all the replies. 

2nd this is an easy one, the same thing that got us out of the ice age, the ice is melting because it's not a Freaking cold as it used to be there. 

3rd This used to be my tag line but it was too "political" If it wasn't for Global Warming, we'd still be in the Ice Age. 

The earth has been going through changes since the dawn of time, The Big Island is still making new real estate. I heard somewhere that part of the continental US was once covered by the oceans, though I don't know that for fact. 

Originally posted by tuwood

The funny thing about temperature data is that we genuinely only have somewhat reliable data for the past 30 years or so.  I would counter that we really only have reliable data for the last 15-20 years because that's when the satellite data started rolling in.  Remember, we have historical surface temperature data for a planet that's covered in 71% water.  

Here's a quote from Jo Nova, who is a popular Australian climate researcher and scientist when the July 2015 was being spouted all over the interwebs as the hottest month "ever".
“Better data shows July this year is the hottest since way back in … 2014. It’s not 4,000 years, not 135 years, it’s the hottest July since the last one,” ... 
“We only have 30 years of good climate data: the satellites tell us the pause is real, and last month’s summer temperatures is not a record anything. According to the UAH and RSS global satellites, lower troposphere averages for July 2014 were 0.30C and 0.34C, compared to July 2015 of 0.28C. Even June 2015 was hotter (UAH, 0.35C; RSS, 0.39C). July 2015 is not even the hottest month since June.” (http://joannenova.com.au/2015/08/hottest-july-in-4000-years-not-even-the-hottest-july-since-2014-according-to-satellites/)

There's no question the earth has been a lot colder, with ice ages.  There's no question the earth has been a lot hotter (tropical fossils in antarctica).  These events occurred before man was roaming the planet, so I am going to have a hard time blaming AGC & AGW for those.

 

Originally posted by crusevegas

1st, I didn't read all the replies. 

2nd this is an easy one, the same thing that got us out of the ice age, the ice is melting because it's not a Freaking cold as it used to be there. 

3rd This used to be my tag line but it was too "political" If it wasn't for Global Warming, we'd still be in the Ice Age. 

The earth has been going through changes since the dawn of time, The Big Island is still making new real estate. I heard somewhere that part of the continental US was once covered by the oceans, though I don't know that for fact. 

Originally posted by crusevegas

I was going to go to bed, but f that, I'm making some popcorn and getting a beer! 

This is gonna get good.

Originally posted by ejshowers Yes, much of the continental US was once covered by water. Google is your friend here as usual. So easy to do a quick search. Or, go out and look at some naturally occurring rocks in your area. If they sandstone or limestone or other sedimentary rock, water once covered your area, usually in the form of a salt water sea or ocean. I opened my local paper to an article entitled "Seas are rising way faster than any time in past 2,800 years". http://www.startribune.com/seas-are-rising-way-faster-than-any-time... Pretty soon Nevada may once again be covered by a shallow sea! Don't sell that real estate yet!

Originally posted by tuwood

I'll check out their paper, but I do often wonder how we can take satellite data today and compare it to geological averaged historical data and compare it as though it's accurate to within fractions of an inch.

The number one source of sea levels rising and falling is the temperature of the water (water expands), so it certainly makes sense that it's increasing.  I do tend to roll my eyes at the doom and gloom statements such as Nevada being covered by a shallow sea because it's no different than a religious dude standing on the corner screaming "the end is near, repent"?

 

 

Originally posted by ejshowers Joke Tony, that last part was a joke. I assume by "water expands" you mean water expands ever so slightly as it warms. Fresh water is most dense at around 39 F, which accounts for thermoclines in larger bodies of water and for a lake "turning over" if it gets cold enough. I don't think you can say with certainty that water temp increase is the number one reason for sea levels rising versus land ice melting as the science is mixed on that. Let's say to keep it simple that it is a 50 - 50 split, Also, for clarity sake, melting sea ice, like the Arctic Ocean, does not add to sea levels rising as that ice is already accounted for in current levels - think of ice in a glass as it melts. It is LAND ice melting that adds to sea levels rising, like ice on the Antarctic continent or glaciers or the large ice sheet on top of Greenland that is rapidly disappearing.

Originally posted by ejshowers Joke Tony, that last part was a joke. I assume by "water expands" you mean water expands ever so slightly as it warms. Fresh water is most dense at around 39 F, which accounts for thermoclines in larger bodies of water and for a lake "turning over" if it gets cold enough. I don't think you can say with certainty that water temp increase is the number one reason for sea levels rising versus land ice melting as the science is mixed on that. Let's say to keep it simple that it is a 50 - 50 split, Also, for clarity sake, melting sea ice, like the Arctic Ocean, does not add to sea levels rising as that ice is already accounted for in current levels - think of ice in a glass as it melts. It is LAND ice melting that adds to sea levels rising, like ice on the Antarctic continent or glaciers or the large ice sheet on top of Greenland that is rapidly disappearing.

Originally posted by ejshowers Thermal expansion being the number one reason or a close number two, it doesn't really matter as they add together anyway. That article is an interesting read, but it doesn't make me feel much better and I'd still get my tickets sooner rather than later :-) You know the article is about glacial MOVEMENT not being as fast as previously predicted, not melting, right?

Originally posted by Left Brain

Not really, the Earth will fix itself.......like it has for the billions of years before we got here.  It might have to get rid of us to do it, but I don't worry about the Earth.  Yes, it's good to live in as clean an environment as we can......but the Earth will decide when enough is enough without our science.  It seems reasonable to me to worry about mankind.....but Earth will survive just fine.

Originally posted by Left Brain

I was thinking about this thread today in regard to what I do personally to help the environment, if anything.  I actually do a number of things.  I don't litter.  I don't flush drugs into the toilet.  We have traded all of our big  cars/suvs for cars that are very fuel effcient......and the biggest thing I do....I ALWAYS cut the rings of a plastic 6 pack holder so no animal/bird gets trapped in one of them.  (this is HUGE.....I could wipe out entire flocks/herds if I didn't)

So what do YOU do?

Originally posted by tuwood

My wife does that too.  I usually make fun of her for it.  lol

Originally posted by Left Brain

Oh, believe me......I was bullied into it.  One of my twins saw a picture of a bird wrapped up in a six pack holder and from that day forward I was evil incarnate. LOL 

You know, I've said before how my wife is a born and raised Bezerkely, Ca. girl.   She won't kill a spider or moth in our house......traps them and takes them outside (I know.....but you get used to it).  Once of the funniest things that happened as my kids were growing up was the day they trapped their own moth and took it outside with great fanfare.  With all of the pride 3 kids aged 4-7 can muster they released the moth.  I had gone outside on the deck with them because they were so obviously thrilled.  That moth went straight up in the air....maybe 50 feet or so as my kids cheered.  A bird came by and ate it right out of mid air.  The crying was unreal........I just went inside. 

Originally posted by Left Brain

Oh, believe me......I was bullied into it.  One of my twins saw a picture of a bird wrapped up in a six pack holder and from that day forward I was evil incarnate. LOL 

You know, I've said before how my wife is a born and raised Bezerkely, Ca. girl.   She won't kill a spider or moth in our house......traps them and takes them outside (I know.....but you get used to it).  Once of the funniest things that happened as my kids were growing up was the day they trapped their own moth and took it outside with great fanfare.  With all of the pride 3 kids aged 4-7 can muster they released the moth.  I had gone outside on the deck with them because they were so obviously thrilled.  That moth went straight up in the air....maybe 50 feet or so as my kids cheered.  A bird came by and ate it right out of mid air.  The crying was unreal........I just went inside. 

Originally posted by drewb8

That is awesome.  

Another no-brainer you can do right now is to replace your traditional light bulbs with LEDs.  The price has come down tremendously in the past few years and you can get a 4 pack of 60 watt equivalent bulbs for under $10.  You won't have to replace it for years and you'll be saving money as well, about $7 per bulb per year on average in electricity costs.  Make sure you get the 2700k color temperature ones though to match the incadescent color.  Unless you like the bluish light light from higher temp bulbs.  I don't.

Originally posted by tuwood

Yay, I'm green.  I already did this.

(admittedly it was because I'm lazy and simply dislike replacing bulbs all the time)  haha

Originally posted by drewb8

Woo hoo!  Hey, whatever the reason, who cares.  I did it a while ago when bulbs were more expensive but I don't regret not waiting.

Another easy one that saves a good chuck of $ as well is getting a programmable thermostat.