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 2016-10-03 11:55 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
Extreme Veteran  3025    Maryland |  Subject: RE: PollsLB your kids aren't millenials. And this millennial bought his own house at age 25 and hasn't lived at his parents since graduation.
however if you graduated in the downturn good luck finding a job for many people. what did you want them to do? |
| 2016-10-03 12:14 PM in reply to: dmiller5 |
Champion 10154  Alabama | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by dmiller5 LB your kids aren't millenials. And this millennial bought his own house at age 25 and hasn't lived at his parents since graduation.
however if you graduated in the downturn good luck finding a job for many people. what did you want them to do? Last week I was talking with an engineer who graduated with and engineering degree and could not find a job. He took at job at a grocery store and worked there until he could find an engineering job. He said, "You gotta do what you gotta do." |
| 2016-10-03 12:17 PM in reply to: dmiller5 |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by dmiller5 LB your kids aren't millenials. And this millennial bought his own house at age 25 and hasn't lived at his parents since graduation.
however if you graduated in the downturn good luck finding a job for many people. what did you want them to do? Then what are they?.....because they're leaving too. |
| 2016-10-03 12:20 PM in reply to: dmiller5 |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by dmiller5 LB your kids aren't millenials. And this millennial bought his own house at age 25 and hasn't lived at his parents since graduation.
however if you graduated in the downturn good luck finding a job for many people. what did you want them to do? The military is always hiring......it's a good gig for someone with a degree. I'm sorry dude.....for the most part, yours is the whiniest generation yet. You're probably not a millenial either. LOL |
| 2016-10-03 12:25 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Champion 10154 Alabama | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by Rogillio Millennials live in Mom and Dad's basement - Hillary R Clinton, in an attempt to win over Bernie supporters. I've got a years pay that says my millennials won't be parking their arses in my basement. As supportive as I've always tried to be to my kids.......my home becomes inhabitable for them once they're off to college. I've got references. I love it when they visit, and I'll help them afford their first place.....but they can't ever really live with me again. They're grown......go make your way is what they get from me. (then I go into my room, close the door, and cry) It has to be done. It is hard...but so is letting go of the bike seat knowing there is a good chance they will wreck. Or throwing a baseball to them and seeing them catch it with their face. "Hold that glove up son! And keep you eye on that ball right into your glove." |
| 2016-10-03 12:37 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by Rogillio Millennials live in Mom and Dad's basement - Hillary R Clinton, in an attempt to win over Bernie supporters. I've got a years pay that says my millennials won't be parking their arses in my basement. As supportive as I've always tried to be to my kids.......my home becomes inhabitable for them once they're off to college. I've got references. I love it when they visit, and I'll help them afford their first place.....but they can't ever really live with me again. They're grown......go make your way is what they get from me. (then I go into my room, close the door, and cry) It has to be done. When both our boys went off to college my wife hugged them and said "I love you too much to ever let you move back in with us." The oldest got his own apartment and didn't even want to come home for the summer because he said it made him feel like he wasn't pulling his own weight. |
| 2016-10-03 12:42 PM in reply to: dmiller5 |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by dmiller5 LB your kids aren't millenials. And this millennial bought his own house at age 25 and hasn't lived at his parents since graduation.
however if you graduated in the downturn good luck finding a job for many people. what did you want them to do? What I've found with people who "can't find a job", is that they're really saying "I can't find the job I want paying the salary I deserve in the city I want to live in". In Omaha for example we are hurting so badly for workers I guarantee you anyone with a degree will get a good paying job within a week if they come here. However, people don't want to move and they insist on staying in areas that are hurting and cry for the government to come help them out. I lived in Chicago and had a really good paying job in 2001 and got pinched by that economic downturn. I was unemployed and I sent out hundreds of resumes in every city nationwide and even some international ones. Even in the teeth of a horrible tech recession I found a job within a week or two and moved to Omaha. |
| 2016-10-03 3:06 PM in reply to: Left Brain |
Elite 4547 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by goforit Tony, you seem like a great guy. Don't waste your time, THEY WILL VOTE FOR HILLARY NO.MATTER.WHAT. Absolutely. For every reason I'd have not to vote for Hillary, there are twenty reasons why I shouldn't vote for Trump. I can't wait for Donald to try and bring morals into one of these debates (btw, I don't think he'll directly address it unless he's really angry, because well, you know how much self-control he has - little)...ya just know he's gonna at least go the route of indirectly attacking Bill Clinton's infidelity and Hillary's response to it. But, does Donald not realize his own infidelities were common public knowledge? If he wants to go that route, to say there is plenty of ammunition is an understatement. He screwed around on his 1st two wives...he stated "I can't find a woman who gave birth sexually attractive," etc. What a man. What a great, great man. Between Trump, Guliani, and Gingrich...9 wives, numerous mistresses, one wife dying of cancer getting cheated on and dumped in the hospital. PUH-LEASE Donald go the route of asserting your moral superiority! LOL. I doubt it makes a bit of difference whether he does or doesn't at this point. I don't think he can win over any more voters then he has right now, or lose any for that matter. As far as I can see, the only dynamic left is how many Clinton can lose to independents......or how many minority voters don't even bother to vote because they just don't trust her or like her. Don't underestimate the turnout that may come Trumps way. We could all wake up on 11/9 going HOLY CHIT!!!!!!! And then the carnival ride will really start.
IMHO the only chance Hillary has to win is to get a turnout equal to or greater than Obama and there's zero indication so far that she'll even be close. Man I hope you're right......because I'm going to just turn the radio on, pull the covers over my head, and stay in bed all day laughing. Oh my! Pullin' the covers over your own head! I've never heard of a self-inflicted Dutch Ovening.  As for millennials not pulling their own weight...it's true that every generation thinks their generation is better than the generation that follows it. This will never change. Even Newt admitted this week was a loss for Trump. "He can't be tweeting at 3 in the morning for ANY reason." (which leads me to infer Newt really wanted to add, especially if it means you are engaging in childish attacks on an ex-beauty pageant participant) So, when does Donald release his taxes like he said he would? I guess there's still time left, right? |
| 2016-10-03 3:35 PM in reply to: ChineseDemocracy |
Champion 10154 Alabama | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by goforit Tony, you seem like a great guy. Don't waste your time, THEY WILL VOTE FOR HILLARY NO.MATTER.WHAT. Absolutely. For every reason I'd have not to vote for Hillary, there are twenty reasons why I shouldn't vote for Trump. I can't wait for Donald to try and bring morals into one of these debates (btw, I don't think he'll directly address it unless he's really angry, because well, you know how much self-control he has - little)...ya just know he's gonna at least go the route of indirectly attacking Bill Clinton's infidelity and Hillary's response to it. But, does Donald not realize his own infidelities were common public knowledge? If he wants to go that route, to say there is plenty of ammunition is an understatement. He screwed around on his 1st two wives...he stated "I can't find a woman who gave birth sexually attractive," etc. What a man. What a great, great man. Between Trump, Guliani, and Gingrich...9 wives, numerous mistresses, one wife dying of cancer getting cheated on and dumped in the hospital. PUH-LEASE Donald go the route of asserting your moral superiority! LOL. I doubt it makes a bit of difference whether he does or doesn't at this point. I don't think he can win over any more voters then he has right now, or lose any for that matter. As far as I can see, the only dynamic left is how many Clinton can lose to independents......or how many minority voters don't even bother to vote because they just don't trust her or like her. Don't underestimate the turnout that may come Trumps way. We could all wake up on 11/9 going HOLY CHIT!!!!!!! And then the carnival ride will really start.
IMHO the only chance Hillary has to win is to get a turnout equal to or greater than Obama and there's zero indication so far that she'll even be close. Man I hope you're right......because I'm going to just turn the radio on, pull the covers over my head, and stay in bed all day laughing. Oh my! Pullin' the covers over your own head! I've never heard of a self-inflicted Dutch Ovening. As for millennials not pulling their own weight...it's true that every generation thinks their generation is better than the generation that follows it. This will never change. Even Newt admitted this week was a loss for Trump. "He can't be tweeting at 3 in the morning for ANY reason." (which leads me to infer Newt really wanted to add, especially if it means you are engaging in childish attacks on an ex-beauty pageant participant) So, when does Donald release his taxes like he said he would? I guess there's still time left, right? He said he'd release them when Hillary released the 30,000 emails she deleted. I don't think my generation is better than my father's generation. I think the guys who survived the dustbowl, the depression and WWII to leave a free and prosperous world and a respected America are by far a better generation. After that came the 'me' generation....Woodstock and hippies and Vietnam and burning draft cards and burning bras (that I actually support). One thing I will give Trump....he has made corrections as he saw the need and beat 16 GOPers and then regrouped after the conventions. He stumbled a bit in the debate but he will be back strong in the next one. As a contributor I was sent a poll for what I would like to see him bring up in the next debate. This tells me he is looking to make changes and trying to fine the right mix and Trump....that is, scripted vs off script. |
| 2016-10-03 7:52 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Elite 4547 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by goforit Tony, you seem like a great guy. Don't waste your time, THEY WILL VOTE FOR HILLARY NO.MATTER.WHAT. Absolutely. For every reason I'd have not to vote for Hillary, there are twenty reasons why I shouldn't vote for Trump. I can't wait for Donald to try and bring morals into one of these debates (btw, I don't think he'll directly address it unless he's really angry, because well, you know how much self-control he has - little)...ya just know he's gonna at least go the route of indirectly attacking Bill Clinton's infidelity and Hillary's response to it. But, does Donald not realize his own infidelities were common public knowledge? If he wants to go that route, to say there is plenty of ammunition is an understatement. He screwed around on his 1st two wives...he stated "I can't find a woman who gave birth sexually attractive," etc. What a man. What a great, great man. Between Trump, Guliani, and Gingrich...9 wives, numerous mistresses, one wife dying of cancer getting cheated on and dumped in the hospital. PUH-LEASE Donald go the route of asserting your moral superiority! LOL. I doubt it makes a bit of difference whether he does or doesn't at this point. I don't think he can win over any more voters then he has right now, or lose any for that matter. As far as I can see, the only dynamic left is how many Clinton can lose to independents......or how many minority voters don't even bother to vote because they just don't trust her or like her. Don't underestimate the turnout that may come Trumps way. We could all wake up on 11/9 going HOLY CHIT!!!!!!! And then the carnival ride will really start.
IMHO the only chance Hillary has to win is to get a turnout equal to or greater than Obama and there's zero indication so far that she'll even be close. Man I hope you're right......because I'm going to just turn the radio on, pull the covers over my head, and stay in bed all day laughing. Oh my! Pullin' the covers over your own head! I've never heard of a self-inflicted Dutch Ovening. As for millennials not pulling their own weight...it's true that every generation thinks their generation is better than the generation that follows it. This will never change. Even Newt admitted this week was a loss for Trump. "He can't be tweeting at 3 in the morning for ANY reason." (which leads me to infer Newt really wanted to add, especially if it means you are engaging in childish attacks on an ex-beauty pageant participant) So, when does Donald release his taxes like he said he would? I guess there's still time left, right? He said he'd release them when Hillary released the 30,000 emails she deleted. I don't think my generation is better than my father's generation. I think the guys who survived the dustbowl, the depression and WWII to leave a free and prosperous world and a respected America are by far a better generation. After that came the 'me' generation....Woodstock and hippies and Vietnam and burning draft cards and burning bras (that I actually support). One thing I will give Trump....he has made corrections as he saw the need and beat 16 GOPers and then regrouped after the conventions. He stumbled a bit in the debate but he will be back strong in the next one. As a contributor I was sent a poll for what I would like to see him bring up in the next debate. This tells me he is looking to make changes and trying to fine the right mix and Trump....that is, scripted vs off script. Yeah, back in the Greatest Generation, women knew their place, minorities listened to Mr. Crow, and all was well. (tongue firmly in cheek) Rogillio, I never said anything about rating the generation that cane before you, I simply stated every generation thinks they are better than the one following it...when, in actuality, there are both positives and negatives depending on perspective. perhaps Pence can right the ship tomorrow night? |
| 2016-10-03 9:53 PM in reply to: ChineseDemocracy |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by Rogillio Yeah, back in the Greatest Generation, women knew their place, minorities listened to Mr. Crow, and all was well. (tongue firmly in cheek) Rogillio, I never said anything about rating the generation that cane before you, I simply stated every generation thinks they are better than the one following it...when, in actuality, there are both positives and negatives depending on perspective. ...as for the polls, Tony's gotta be feelin' good, the LA Times (which is an outlier...but...it's th LA TIMES!) has Trumpster up 5 points in the general. ...despite every other poll I am seeing that has Hillary up in the swing states (except for Ohio) and the general election. FL, PA, NC, VA, MI, CO, NM...the list goes on. perhaps Pence can right the ship tomorrow night? Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy He said he'd release them when Hillary released the 30,000 emails she deleted. I don't think my generation is better than my father's generation. I think the guys who survived the dustbowl, the depression and WWII to leave a free and prosperous world and a respected America are by far a better generation. After that came the 'me' generation....Woodstock and hippies and Vietnam and burning draft cards and burning bras (that I actually support). One thing I will give Trump....he has made corrections as he saw the need and beat 16 GOPers and then regrouped after the conventions. He stumbled a bit in the debate but he will be back strong in the next one. As a contributor I was sent a poll for what I would like to see him bring up in the next debate. This tells me he is looking to make changes and trying to fine the right mix and Trump....that is, scripted vs off script. Originally posted by Left Brain Oh my! Pullin' the covers over your own head! I've never heard of a self-inflicted Dutch Ovening. Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by goforit Tony, you seem like a great guy. Don't waste your time, THEY WILL VOTE FOR HILLARY NO.MATTER.WHAT. Absolutely. For every reason I'd have not to vote for Hillary, there are twenty reasons why I shouldn't vote for Trump. I can't wait for Donald to try and bring morals into one of these debates (btw, I don't think he'll directly address it unless he's really angry, because well, you know how much self-control he has - little)...ya just know he's gonna at least go the route of indirectly attacking Bill Clinton's infidelity and Hillary's response to it. But, does Donald not realize his own infidelities were common public knowledge? If he wants to go that route, to say there is plenty of ammunition is an understatement. He screwed around on his 1st two wives...he stated "I can't find a woman who gave birth sexually attractive," etc. What a man. What a great, great man. Between Trump, Guliani, and Gingrich...9 wives, numerous mistresses, one wife dying of cancer getting cheated on and dumped in the hospital. PUH-LEASE Donald go the route of asserting your moral superiority! LOL. I doubt it makes a bit of difference whether he does or doesn't at this point. I don't think he can win over any more voters then he has right now, or lose any for that matter. As far as I can see, the only dynamic left is how many Clinton can lose to independents......or how many minority voters don't even bother to vote because they just don't trust her or like her. Don't underestimate the turnout that may come Trumps way. We could all wake up on 11/9 going HOLY CHIT!!!!!!! And then the carnival ride will really start.
IMHO the only chance Hillary has to win is to get a turnout equal to or greater than Obama and there's zero indication so far that she'll even be close. Man I hope you're right......because I'm going to just turn the radio on, pull the covers over my head, and stay in bed all day laughing. As for millennials not pulling their own weight...it's true that every generation thinks their generation is better than the generation that follows it. This will never change. ...as for the topic of this thread...Polls. Tony, how are those polls looking? Even Newt admitted this week was a loss for Trump. "He can't be tweeting at 3 in the morning for ANY reason." (which leads me to infer Newt really wanted to add, especially if it means you are engaging in childish attacks on an ex-beauty pageant participant) So, when does Donald release his taxes like he said he would? I guess there's still time left, right? polls had her up before the debate too, they're barely changed by a point or two pre/post debate. Don't forget, those poll numbers are with 2012 turnout models too so hillary has some work to do. I'm curious to see what Wikileaks has on your girl tomorrow. |
| 2016-10-04 8:43 AM in reply to: tuwood |
Veteran 1019 St. Louis | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by tuwood polls had her up before the debate too, they're barely changed by a point or two pre/post debate. Don't forget, those poll numbers are with 2012 turnout models too so hillary has some work to do. I'm curious to see what Wikileaks has on your girl tomorrow. Apparently nothing. That's pretty disappointing, I was all set with my popcorn waiting to see what they had that could destroy her, and how she was going to dance her way out of it. Bummer. |
| 2016-10-04 8:48 AM in reply to: Bob Loblaw |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Bob Loblaw Originally posted by tuwood polls had her up before the debate too, they're barely changed by a point or two pre/post debate. Don't forget, those poll numbers are with 2012 turnout models too so hillary has some work to do. I'm curious to see what Wikileaks has on your girl tomorrow. Apparently nothing. That's pretty disappointing, I was all set with my popcorn waiting to see what they had that could destroy her, and how she was going to dance her way out of it. Bummer. ikr, I stayed up all night waiting... It is kind of interesting how this stuff gets all wound up. He said that he was going to have a press conference and one "journalist" says that Hillary will be over on Wednesday and the whole internet blew up. He is claiming to have lots of bad stuff though and says all will be released by election. Normally I'd write him off as yet another cook trying to get publicity, but he was the one who released all the hacked emails that led to DWS resigning so he likely does have some goods. We shall see. |
| 2016-10-04 8:52 AM in reply to: ChineseDemocracy |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by Rogillio Yeah, back in the Greatest Generation, women knew their place, minorities listened to Mr. Crow, and all was well. (tongue firmly in cheek) Rogillio, I never said anything about rating the generation that cane before you, I simply stated every generation thinks they are better than the one following it...when, in actuality, there are both positives and negatives depending on perspective. ...as for the polls, Tony's gotta be feelin' good, the LA Times (which is an outlier...but...it's th LA TIMES!) has Trumpster up 5 points in the general. ...despite every other poll I am seeing that has Hillary up in the swing states (except for Ohio) and the general election. FL, PA, NC, VA, MI, CO, NM...the list goes on. perhaps Pence can right the ship tomorrow night? Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy He said he'd release them when Hillary released the 30,000 emails she deleted. I don't think my generation is better than my father's generation. I think the guys who survived the dustbowl, the depression and WWII to leave a free and prosperous world and a respected America are by far a better generation. After that came the 'me' generation....Woodstock and hippies and Vietnam and burning draft cards and burning bras (that I actually support). One thing I will give Trump....he has made corrections as he saw the need and beat 16 GOPers and then regrouped after the conventions. He stumbled a bit in the debate but he will be back strong in the next one. As a contributor I was sent a poll for what I would like to see him bring up in the next debate. This tells me he is looking to make changes and trying to fine the right mix and Trump....that is, scripted vs off script. Originally posted by Left Brain Oh my! Pullin' the covers over your own head! I've never heard of a self-inflicted Dutch Ovening. Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by goforit Tony, you seem like a great guy. Don't waste your time, THEY WILL VOTE FOR HILLARY NO.MATTER.WHAT. Absolutely. For every reason I'd have not to vote for Hillary, there are twenty reasons why I shouldn't vote for Trump. I can't wait for Donald to try and bring morals into one of these debates (btw, I don't think he'll directly address it unless he's really angry, because well, you know how much self-control he has - little)...ya just know he's gonna at least go the route of indirectly attacking Bill Clinton's infidelity and Hillary's response to it. But, does Donald not realize his own infidelities were common public knowledge? If he wants to go that route, to say there is plenty of ammunition is an understatement. He screwed around on his 1st two wives...he stated "I can't find a woman who gave birth sexually attractive," etc. What a man. What a great, great man. Between Trump, Guliani, and Gingrich...9 wives, numerous mistresses, one wife dying of cancer getting cheated on and dumped in the hospital. PUH-LEASE Donald go the route of asserting your moral superiority! LOL. I doubt it makes a bit of difference whether he does or doesn't at this point. I don't think he can win over any more voters then he has right now, or lose any for that matter. As far as I can see, the only dynamic left is how many Clinton can lose to independents......or how many minority voters don't even bother to vote because they just don't trust her or like her. Don't underestimate the turnout that may come Trumps way. We could all wake up on 11/9 going HOLY CHIT!!!!!!! And then the carnival ride will really start.
IMHO the only chance Hillary has to win is to get a turnout equal to or greater than Obama and there's zero indication so far that she'll even be close. Man I hope you're right......because I'm going to just turn the radio on, pull the covers over my head, and stay in bed all day laughing. As for millennials not pulling their own weight...it's true that every generation thinks their generation is better than the generation that follows it. This will never change. ...as for the topic of this thread...Polls. Tony, how are those polls looking? Even Newt admitted this week was a loss for Trump. "He can't be tweeting at 3 in the morning for ANY reason." (which leads me to infer Newt really wanted to add, especially if it means you are engaging in childish attacks on an ex-beauty pageant participant) So, when does Donald release his taxes like he said he would? I guess there's still time left, right? Rasmussen still has it in a virtual tie: I've seen several polls with a +/- 1-2 swing since last week, but for the most part I'd say the first debate had little impact on the polls no matter how much the media tried to paint "Trump is over". BTW, I've watched this movie over and over again during the primaries and this is exactly how every set of primaries went. It's amazing that you and others still believe Trump doesn't have a shot. |
| 2016-10-04 8:55 AM in reply to: tuwood |
Champion 10154 Alabama | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Bob Loblaw Originally posted by tuwood polls had her up before the debate too, they're barely changed by a point or two pre/post debate. Don't forget, those poll numbers are with 2012 turnout models too so hillary has some work to do. I'm curious to see what Wikileaks has on your girl tomorrow. Apparently nothing. That's pretty disappointing, I was all set with my popcorn waiting to see what they had that could destroy her, and how she was going to dance her way out of it. Bummer. ikr, I stayed up all night waiting... It is kind of interesting how this stuff gets all wound up. He said that he was going to have a press conference and one "journalist" says that Hillary will be over on Wednesday and the whole internet blew up. He is claiming to have lots of bad stuff though and says all will be released by election. Normally I'd write him off as yet another cook trying to get publicity, but he was the one who released all the hacked emails that led to DWS resigning so he likely does have some goods. We shall see. The Clinton Crime Family got to him last night. Too much at stake here....they used the CIA and the FBI to stop whatever he was gonna spill in the interest of "national security". |
| 2016-10-04 9:17 AM in reply to: tuwood |
Elite 4547 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by Rogillio Yeah, back in the Greatest Generation, women knew their place, minorities listened to Mr. Crow, and all was well. (tongue firmly in cheek) Rogillio, I never said anything about rating the generation that cane before you, I simply stated every generation thinks they are better than the one following it...when, in actuality, there are both positives and negatives depending on perspective. ...as for the polls, Tony's gotta be feelin' good, the LA Times (which is an outlier...but...it's th LA TIMES!) has Trumpster up 5 points in the general. ...despite every other poll I am seeing that has Hillary up in the swing states (except for Ohio) and the general election. FL, PA, NC, VA, MI, CO, NM...the list goes on. perhaps Pence can right the ship tomorrow night? Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy He said he'd release them when Hillary released the 30,000 emails she deleted. I don't think my generation is better than my father's generation. I think the guys who survived the dustbowl, the depression and WWII to leave a free and prosperous world and a respected America are by far a better generation. After that came the 'me' generation....Woodstock and hippies and Vietnam and burning draft cards and burning bras (that I actually support). One thing I will give Trump....he has made corrections as he saw the need and beat 16 GOPers and then regrouped after the conventions. He stumbled a bit in the debate but he will be back strong in the next one. As a contributor I was sent a poll for what I would like to see him bring up in the next debate. This tells me he is looking to make changes and trying to fine the right mix and Trump....that is, scripted vs off script. Originally posted by Left Brain Oh my! Pullin' the covers over your own head! I've never heard of a self-inflicted Dutch Ovening. Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by goforit Tony, you seem like a great guy. Don't waste your time, THEY WILL VOTE FOR HILLARY NO.MATTER.WHAT. Absolutely. For every reason I'd have not to vote for Hillary, there are twenty reasons why I shouldn't vote for Trump. I can't wait for Donald to try and bring morals into one of these debates (btw, I don't think he'll directly address it unless he's really angry, because well, you know how much self-control he has - little)...ya just know he's gonna at least go the route of indirectly attacking Bill Clinton's infidelity and Hillary's response to it. But, does Donald not realize his own infidelities were common public knowledge? If he wants to go that route, to say there is plenty of ammunition is an understatement. He screwed around on his 1st two wives...he stated "I can't find a woman who gave birth sexually attractive," etc. What a man. What a great, great man. Between Trump, Guliani, and Gingrich...9 wives, numerous mistresses, one wife dying of cancer getting cheated on and dumped in the hospital. PUH-LEASE Donald go the route of asserting your moral superiority! LOL. I doubt it makes a bit of difference whether he does or doesn't at this point. I don't think he can win over any more voters then he has right now, or lose any for that matter. As far as I can see, the only dynamic left is how many Clinton can lose to independents......or how many minority voters don't even bother to vote because they just don't trust her or like her. Don't underestimate the turnout that may come Trumps way. We could all wake up on 11/9 going HOLY CHIT!!!!!!! And then the carnival ride will really start.
IMHO the only chance Hillary has to win is to get a turnout equal to or greater than Obama and there's zero indication so far that she'll even be close. Man I hope you're right......because I'm going to just turn the radio on, pull the covers over my head, and stay in bed all day laughing. As for millennials not pulling their own weight...it's true that every generation thinks their generation is better than the generation that follows it. This will never change. ...as for the topic of this thread...Polls. Tony, how are those polls looking? Even Newt admitted this week was a loss for Trump. "He can't be tweeting at 3 in the morning for ANY reason." (which leads me to infer Newt really wanted to add, especially if it means you are engaging in childish attacks on an ex-beauty pageant participant) So, when does Donald release his taxes like he said he would? I guess there's still time left, right? Rasmussen still has it in a virtual tie: I've seen several polls with a +/- 1-2 swing since last week, but for the most part I'd say the first debate had little impact on the polls no matter how much the media tried to paint "Trump is over". BTW, I've watched this movie over and over again during the primaries and this is exactly how every set of primaries went. It's amazing that you and others still believe Trump doesn't have a shot. Honestly Tony, it is indisputable that Hillary had a slight lead before the 1st debate, and that lead was upped about 1.5 percentage points as a result of Trump's terrible performance. (which Nate Silver predicted btw) No, Trump is not "over," he just had a dreadful, lost week. If you don't believe me, ask Newt Gingrich, who spoke about it openly with the press on Sunday. btw, you say you've watched this movie over and over again, but I am pretty sure none of us have ever seen an election season featuring a candidate like Trump who can't get out of his own way...he is so easily led off-course. He is so full of pride...he absolutely refuses to apologize for anything...ever, for anything! Seriously? ...and you can't possibly see how this could be a problem as Commander in Chief? "I know more about ISIS than the Generals!" |
| 2016-10-04 9:32 AM in reply to: ChineseDemocracy |
Master 2802 Minnetonka, Minnesota Bronze member | Subject: RE: Polls Polls since the debate have Clinton gaining around 2 points to give her a current lead of about 3.5%. The state polling, except for Ohio, is even more favorable, as mentioned above I believe. The slight Florida shift in favor of Clinton should be give the Trump campaign the most concern I believe, as it is a MUST win for him. Here are the 4-way national polls since the debate in the RCP average. (RCP2.PNG) Attachments ---------------- RCP2.PNG (48KB - 3 downloads) |
| 2016-10-04 9:33 AM in reply to: ChineseDemocracy |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by tuwood Honestly Tony, it is indisputable that Hillary had a slight lead before the 1st debate, and that lead was upped about 1.5 percentage points as a result of Trump's terrible performance. (which Nate Silver predicted btw) No, Trump is not "over," he just had a dreadful, lost week. If you don't believe me, ask Newt Gingrich, who spoke about it openly with the press on Sunday. btw, you say you've watched this movie over and over again, but I am pretty sure none of us have ever seen an election season featuring a candidate like Trump who can't get out of his own way...he is so easily led off-course. He is so full of pride...he absolutely refuses to apologize for anything...ever, for anything! Seriously? ...and you can't possibly see how this could be a problem as Commander in Chief? "I know more about ISIS than the Generals!" Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by Rogillio Yeah, back in the Greatest Generation, women knew their place, minorities listened to Mr. Crow, and all was well. (tongue firmly in cheek) Rogillio, I never said anything about rating the generation that cane before you, I simply stated every generation thinks they are better than the one following it...when, in actuality, there are both positives and negatives depending on perspective. ...as for the polls, Tony's gotta be feelin' good, the LA Times (which is an outlier...but...it's th LA TIMES!) has Trumpster up 5 points in the general. ...despite every other poll I am seeing that has Hillary up in the swing states (except for Ohio) and the general election. FL, PA, NC, VA, MI, CO, NM...the list goes on. perhaps Pence can right the ship tomorrow night? Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy He said he'd release them when Hillary released the 30,000 emails she deleted. I don't think my generation is better than my father's generation. I think the guys who survived the dustbowl, the depression and WWII to leave a free and prosperous world and a respected America are by far a better generation. After that came the 'me' generation....Woodstock and hippies and Vietnam and burning draft cards and burning bras (that I actually support). One thing I will give Trump....he has made corrections as he saw the need and beat 16 GOPers and then regrouped after the conventions. He stumbled a bit in the debate but he will be back strong in the next one. As a contributor I was sent a poll for what I would like to see him bring up in the next debate. This tells me he is looking to make changes and trying to fine the right mix and Trump....that is, scripted vs off script. Originally posted by Left Brain Oh my! Pullin' the covers over your own head! I've never heard of a self-inflicted Dutch Ovening. Originally posted by tuwood Originally posted by Left Brain Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by goforit Tony, you seem like a great guy. Don't waste your time, THEY WILL VOTE FOR HILLARY NO.MATTER.WHAT. Absolutely. For every reason I'd have not to vote for Hillary, there are twenty reasons why I shouldn't vote for Trump. I can't wait for Donald to try and bring morals into one of these debates (btw, I don't think he'll directly address it unless he's really angry, because well, you know how much self-control he has - little)...ya just know he's gonna at least go the route of indirectly attacking Bill Clinton's infidelity and Hillary's response to it. But, does Donald not realize his own infidelities were common public knowledge? If he wants to go that route, to say there is plenty of ammunition is an understatement. He screwed around on his 1st two wives...he stated "I can't find a woman who gave birth sexually attractive," etc. What a man. What a great, great man. Between Trump, Guliani, and Gingrich...9 wives, numerous mistresses, one wife dying of cancer getting cheated on and dumped in the hospital. PUH-LEASE Donald go the route of asserting your moral superiority! LOL. I doubt it makes a bit of difference whether he does or doesn't at this point. I don't think he can win over any more voters then he has right now, or lose any for that matter. As far as I can see, the only dynamic left is how many Clinton can lose to independents......or how many minority voters don't even bother to vote because they just don't trust her or like her. Don't underestimate the turnout that may come Trumps way. We could all wake up on 11/9 going HOLY CHIT!!!!!!! And then the carnival ride will really start.
IMHO the only chance Hillary has to win is to get a turnout equal to or greater than Obama and there's zero indication so far that she'll even be close. Man I hope you're right......because I'm going to just turn the radio on, pull the covers over my head, and stay in bed all day laughing. As for millennials not pulling their own weight...it's true that every generation thinks their generation is better than the generation that follows it. This will never change. ...as for the topic of this thread...Polls. Tony, how are those polls looking? Even Newt admitted this week was a loss for Trump. "He can't be tweeting at 3 in the morning for ANY reason." (which leads me to infer Newt really wanted to add, especially if it means you are engaging in childish attacks on an ex-beauty pageant participant) So, when does Donald release his taxes like he said he would? I guess there's still time left, right? Rasmussen still has it in a virtual tie: I've seen several polls with a +/- 1-2 swing since last week, but for the most part I'd say the first debate had little impact on the polls no matter how much the media tried to paint "Trump is over". BTW, I've watched this movie over and over again during the primaries and this is exactly how every set of primaries went. It's amazing that you and others still believe Trump doesn't have a shot. The movie I saw was the media telling everyone how bad he was doing, but in reality he was doing far better than all of his competition. Yes, everyone is saying that he did horrible and Hillary has had a tremendous tail wind all week and as you're saying she had a massive gain of 1.5% in polling with margin of error's around 3-5%? Um, ok if that makes you feel better then have fun with that. You speak of all Trumps faults and many people see those as somebody being genuine. There's no question he could handle various things in his campaign better but the way he does handle things (good and bad) speak to his passion and being human. In contrast you have the scripted robot Hillary who pauses in between every word to make sure the next peer tested word she speaks is ok. I know we've beat the crowd size horse to death, but I saw an article yesterday or the day before that said Trump had more people turned away at his last rally in Florida then Hillary had attend all of her rallies for the last month. ouch. |
| 2016-10-04 9:38 AM in reply to: ejshowers |
Pro 9391 Omaha, NE | Subject: RE: Polls Agree that Florida is a must win for Trump. In theory he could pick of a PA or something like that to offset it, but if he can't win FL then there's no way he can win PA IMHO. |
| 2016-10-04 12:21 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Champion 10154 Alabama | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by tuwood Agree that Florida is a must win for Trump. In theory he could pick of a PA or something like that to offset it, but if he can't win FL then there's no way he can win PA IMHO. I was thinking the same thing but I was looking at the Rasmussen poll of polls for states and see stuff like this for Minnesota: 9/26 Minnesota Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up RCP Average 9/12 - 9/23 -- -- Clinton +4.3 So they moved MN from leans to toss up. They cite 3 polls one where she is up 6 and one she is up 7 and one showing a tie. MN is only 10 bucks but all it takes is flipping some of the close states and it could be a landslide....either way. So I'm back to thinking, the polls are so guessing! My hope is the Trump enthusiasm holds. When you turn on your local news and see a Trump rally in your state and it is packed it has a effect on people. |
| 2016-10-04 1:48 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
Elite 4547 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by tuwood Agree that Florida is a must win for Trump. In theory he could pick of a PA or something like that to offset it, but if he can't win FL then there's no way he can win PA IMHO. I was thinking the same thing but I was looking at the Rasmussen poll of polls for states and see stuff like this for Minnesota: 9/26 Minnesota Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up RCP Average 9/12 - 9/23 -- -- Clinton +4.3 So they moved MN from leans to toss up. They cite 3 polls one where she is up 6 and one she is up 7 and one showing a tie. MN is only 10 bucks but all it takes is flipping some of the close states and it could be a landslide....either way. So I'm back to thinking, the polls are so guessing! My hope is the Trump enthusiasm holds. When you turn on your local news and see a Trump rally in your state and it is packed it has a effect on people. You wrote, "The polls are so guessing!" Rogillio, are you sure you weren't in charge of the Romney 2012 campaign? |
| 2016-10-04 2:12 PM in reply to: 0 |
Champion 10154 Alabama | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by tuwood Agree that Florida is a must win for Trump. In theory he could pick of a PA or something like that to offset it, but if he can't win FL then there's no way he can win PA IMHO. I was thinking the same thing but I was looking at the Rasmussen poll of polls for states and see stuff like this for Minnesota: 9/26 Minnesota Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up RCP Average 9/12 - 9/23 -- -- Clinton +4.3 So they moved MN from leans to toss up. They cite 3 polls one where she is up 6 and one she is up 7 and one showing a tie. MN is only 10 bucks but all it takes is flipping some of the close states and it could be a landslide....either way. So I'm back to thinking, the polls are so guessing! My hope is the Trump enthusiasm holds. When you turn on your local news and see a Trump rally in your state and it is packed it has a effect on people. You wrote, "The polls are so guessing!" Rogillio, are you sure you weren't in charge of the Romney 2012 campaign? LOL Yeah, you'd think pollsters would have learned a thing or two since then. It really is hard sampling 2,000 people and deciding how 100,000,000 people will vote. Maybe I missed the joke. Are you suggesting I wrote speeches for Baghdad Bob? :-) Edited by Rogillio 2016-10-04 2:14 PM |
| 2016-10-04 4:28 PM in reply to: Rogillio |
| Master 5557 , California | Subject: RE: Polls Yeah, you'd think pollsters would have learned a thing or two since then. It really is hard sampling 2,000 people and deciding how 100,000,000 people will vote. Statistical sampling is not that hard, and you can get a fairly small margin of error even when it seems like a large discrepancy between the sample size and the overall population. The sampling isn't the problem. The trouble in presidential elections is that we just haven't had that many of them. 43 U.S. presidents is a very small number. So when the stats people are trying to model the current election, there just isn't enough historical data. Pure polling is fine. Sampling is fine. But trying to model certain trends (say, immigration) to predict how it will affect voting -- those things are hard. So for example, I would expect a higher margin of error on the "polls plus" data on fivethirtyeight -- because they factor in endorsements. |
| 2016-10-05 11:55 AM in reply to: Rogillio |
Elite 4547 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by ChineseDemocracy Originally posted by Rogillio Originally posted by tuwood Agree that Florida is a must win for Trump. In theory he could pick of a PA or something like that to offset it, but if he can't win FL then there's no way he can win PA IMHO. I was thinking the same thing but I was looking at the Rasmussen poll of polls for states and see stuff like this for Minnesota: 9/26 Minnesota Leans Clinton »»» Toss Up RCP Average 9/12 - 9/23 -- -- Clinton +4.3 So they moved MN from leans to toss up. They cite 3 polls one where she is up 6 and one she is up 7 and one showing a tie. MN is only 10 bucks but all it takes is flipping some of the close states and it could be a landslide....either way. So I'm back to thinking, the polls are so guessing! My hope is the Trump enthusiasm holds. When you turn on your local news and see a Trump rally in your state and it is packed it has a effect on people. You wrote, "The polls are so guessing!" Rogillio, are you sure you weren't in charge of the Romney 2012 campaign? LOL Yeah, you'd think pollsters would have learned a thing or two since then. It really is hard sampling 2,000 people and deciding how 100,000,000 people will vote. Maybe I missed the joke. Are you suggesting I wrote speeches for Baghdad Bob? :-) No, the joke I was getting at was the fact Romney and his team honestly believed they were ahead going into the election despite the polls saying otherwise. (kinda like Trump and his gang right now)  |
| 2016-10-05 12:03 PM in reply to: tuwood |
Pro 5361 | Subject: RE: Polls Originally posted by tuwood Rasmussen still has it in a virtual tie: I've seen several polls with a +/- 1-2 swing since last week, but for the most part I'd say the first debate had little impact on the polls no matter how much the media tried to paint "Trump is over". BTW, I've watched this movie over and over again during the primaries and this is exactly how every set of primaries went. It's amazing that you and others still believe Trump doesn't have a shot.
FWIW- Rasmussen was 3.7% biased for GOP in 2012. I think Nate Silver puts the data together as even handed and more thorough than anyone. 538 is a good source for poll watching. Forgetting about conservative vs liberal principals. As a follower of Trump on Twitter... the guy has no business being the leader of the free world. He 70 and cannot contain his sophomoric demeanor. Very entertaining tho'.
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