This article got me thinking. http://www.xtri.com/article.asp?id=1862 Has anyone ever seen any stats on the number of first timers that DNF an IM vs the DNFs for vets? I know that there are some people that think that there should be entry standard for IM races. Many of these same people point to the number of IM DNFs and say that it is because of all the first timers. From my limited experiance I know about twice as many vets that have DNFed than first timers that have. Has anyone every been able to back this statement up?
For the record, I do not think that there should be entry standards or qualifying races just to do an IM (Kona exempted). Some people have fast bikes, some people have fast computers, deal with what you have or upgrade.
T in Liberty Lake - 2006-09-28 11:01 AM
From my limited experiance I know about twice as many vets that have DNFed than first timers that have.
As an individual does more IM races they expose themselves to a potential DNF each and every time, so eventually they may get a DNF. This likely explains your observation above. Even pros get DNF's, although if they are having a bad day they may make the decision to call it quits much more easily than an AG'er so that they can save energy for the next race which may be only a few weeks away.
The morning after CDA, I spoke with a with a woman who had DNF'd the day before. This was her second Ironman, and she commented that if it had been her first, she doesn't think she would have quit -- she thinks that mentally she would have been more committed to finishing.
Of course, that is after a nights sleep and reflecting back on the day -- I'm sure at the time she quit, she honestly thought she could not have gone on. But I found it interesting.
Yep, I understand why a pro would pull out of a race. And I understand that the more you race the more you expose yourself to the chance of a DNF. But I guess what I'm really after are some numbers that back up the statement that most of the DNF's are first timers. For example, something like 75% of the DNF's are first timers, 20% are experianced AGers, and the other 5% are pros (the above stats are just made up). My guess is that the true stats will not back up the argument for a limit on first timers.
I suspect that a good RD might go through and do some rough statistical analysis to see whether there are parts of the race that are problematic. They'd probably be able to break it down into first-time/veteran. I doubt you'll find much published though, because it may expose the RD to un-necessary liability.
I just feel bad for those IMOO participants who dropped out in '05 vowing to not seccumb to the heat in '06...