Sub 3 hour marathoners

<1% of US population have even run a marathon. (Might be about 1-2% now)

Of that small percent, <2% run sub-3s on average, with the exception of the all-downhill courses, where you might see 3-4%. 

So not too many. 

There were 507,000 marathoners in the US in 2010, by far the largest number ever.

Let's say, that 3 Million have ever run a marathon.  That's less than 0.1% of americans that have run one at all. 

In the marathon I just ran, 2.3% of the runners broke 3 hrs (I wasn't one of them).  If the Phoenix RnR marathon was typical;

2.3% x 0.1% = 0.0023% of Americans have run a marathon in under 3hrs.

Thats insane to me. I guess I never really broke it down and actually thought that hard about the how small that population is. It's funny cause when I look at the age grade calculator, a sub 3 hour marathon only puts me(26 year old male) in the 'regional class' which I always viewed as ''average''.   

What is an elite marathoner? I guess that is a matter of opinion. I will throw 2:15 out there for men. Even that is not going to win you anything of note, you have to be a sub 2:08 guy if you plan on winning any major races.

If you are looking for "elite" AGer types I personally think sub 2:30.

well actually there are alot more than that.

in 2010 alone, 40th on the world marathon list was sub 2:08 (2:07:58), so many many more than 100 can run under 2:15.

As of 2009

the 494th fastest time recorded was 2:08:38, so I stand by my statement that you have to be able to run sub 2:08 to have any hope of winning any race of importance. When over 500 times under 2:08 have been recorded I think that makes even 2:15 questionable as an elite time.

Now, like you said, it depends on what your opinion of the word elite means. I did also say, in my 1st post,  that the word elite is a matter of opinion, but in my opinion I am being generous calling sub 2:15 elite.

In reference to the OP, my guess is that they were more referring to the AGers and not professionals and so I went with sub 2:30 as being elite in that case. in 2009 there were 600 times recorded under 2:30 in the USA alone.

Even

I tend to think more along these lines in saying someone is elite although I consider the qualifying times for the Olympic Trails as an elite runner. Qualifying for Boston, IMO, not even close. Not when 47,000+ can meet that standard. FYI, the 30th ranked guy in the world last year ran 2:07:58 according to T&F News. I would venture to guess that a 2:15 is somewhere around 100th.

Edit: can not read, 40th fastest as stated by previous poster.  

I think folks on a triathlon forum also have to distinguish that there's a HUGE difference between what is commonly called 'elite' between the running world and the triathlon world.

ALthough you can draw your own personal line wherever you want in terms of ability, in general:

Triathlon: There is an 'ELITE' category you can race in below pro-level, often comprised of the fastest AGers or up-n-coming pros. These folks are often beaten outright by the fastest AGers. The very fastest guys in tri (Macca, etc) do not race in elite class, but in pro class, and the pro class is a very big field. (In my opinion, 'elite' is a overstatement of this group's abilities, as it doesn't take that much to beat the slower ones in this field)

Running: Elite is generally reserved for the fastest runners in the field - in a megamarathon like NYC, you have to be a top professional and are usually invited (for pay) to be elite. Those are the sub 2:15 marathon guys. Generally, unless you're amongst the most competitive collegiate runners, you'll never catch these guys, even if they're having an extraordinarily bad day.

It's really not comparing the same thing to compare a running 'elite' in that sense vs a triathlete 'elite' - you would really have to compare the top group of Kona pros to compare with the running elites in the sense given above, which is the common understanding amongst runners.

That is fair enough.

An interesting side note is that the qualifying time for the actual games is 2:12, so only 6 of the current 58 who are qualified (via marathon times) for the US trials are elite enough for entry into the Olympics.