Predicting your race finishing time.. (Page 2)

I am a firm believer in setting race specific goals for my finish times.  I always discuss these with my wife for a couple of reasons: 1) like you said, it relieves some of the stresses and pressures of the race and 2) it lets her know when to start looking for me. 

I also set 2 time goals, 1st goal time is the time within a couple of minutes that I know through training that I will finish in and then the 2nd finish time is the optimum goal, the time with which by pushing myself as I am capable of should hit this time.  I am still working on hitting the optimum times but I always put it out there for myself to achieve.

I've actually been pretty good at setting goal times far in advance (like the year before.. they were realistic, but needed consistent work), as the event gets closer I'll give myself the realistic buffer zone based on my training.

Of course since I'm still pretty new to racing I've had a few races which weren't executed properly, but I've learned from them.

I've already set goals for next year on the races I've done this year (assuming they dont' change the courses again) as I feel it is a good carrot to chase during the winter.

I'm really, really good at predicting standalone running event times...basically because I train for those races in such a way that the training pretty much sets up the outcome.  E.g., went into Boston this year knowing that my training predicted a 3:38 with a top end of 3:35 and likely no worse than 3:40...so those were my realistic/optimistic/worst case goals.  Result:  Was on track for 3:38:30, but had my first-ever portapotty stop (mile 17.5) that led to a 3:39:50...pace was right where I expected.

I wish I was as good at predicting bike splits, especially at longer distances.  The longer the ride, the more I tend to miss the mark.

OTOH, I went into my Oly over the weekend looking for 28:30/2:15/1:03:30/1:15/44:30 - 2:20:30 and got 27:01/2:30/1:04:31/1:30/43:56 - 2:19:30...generally pretty close.

I try to set some goals when I sign up for the race as a way to keep my training honest.  IF the day ends up perfect for racing, why would I not want to be ready to take advantage of that?  The alternative would be to putz through training and not be capable of taking advantage of what life provides. 

As race day approaches, I do work through expectations based on recent training.  I'm doing Vineman in 9 days, so here's what I'm looking at:

Segment                     Goal                        Expectation
Swim                           1:15                        1:17-1:20 (wasn't able to hold winter gains, sighting last weekend was bad)
Bike                             6:00                        6:00--6:15 (recent long rides were 18.5 mph, so quite encouraging)
Run                              4:30                        4:30 (ran a 3:58 marathon in May, still quite possible if I'm smart on the bike)

My goal is <12:00 and I feel like I still have a small chance of hitting that.  My expectation is 12:15-12:30. 

I'll finalize my goal times in the week leading up to the race.  This season has been a bit harder to predict though as there have been course changes (one made significantly longer) in the last week before the race.  I've been burned enough from trying to peg it from the start to know better than to just try for a time I can't achieve, it's gotta still be close.  I've got a race on Sunday, but I don't think I'm goign to hold myself to any time goal though because of this crazy heat and probably race without a watch so I dont' even think about it.

I'm really good at predicting my times...I train and log way to much to not know exactly what I'm going to do on race day.

I'm also really good at predicting others times if I'm familiar with their abilities.

Using Bryancd as an example...when I saw his finish time of 4:17, I mentally broke down his splits and was within a minute of every split just because I follow his training and know exactly how it is going to break down.

Meulen - 2011-07-21 12:34 PM

bryancd - 2011-07-21 12:14 PM No problem, B.! As you found out, long course racing is very different from short course, especially on the bike. Ignoring training and using he race results from last year, I would have still felt your were shooting too high. A 22.6 mph Olympic ride is going to have a tugh time becoming a 22+ Half ride. And even with your WU/CD inclusion, you weren't running enough in terms of frequency and volume. Look to add more running to the next Half you build towards and get ut on the bike alone and do tempo efforts at a goal race pace of 22-23mph weekly.

Bryan-thanks (did I say that enough already!! lol) Looking back you are absolutely correct!!!! After the marathon I should have continued to work at the higher distances and added intervals/hills. Instead, I assumed I would continue improvement going to lower distances in a half mary plan and working my way back up like a beginner would. Wow that was stupid!!! I'll work on getting on my own more on the bike too. I should probably log my solo time seperate from groups even if I do them in succession. I think I may stop leading our advance rides at LTF. If I do I could probaly get out by myself before leading an intermediate ride. If I did that, it would give me more focus on my own fitness and/or get me closer to the numbers I thought I was at! WOW!!! eye opeing thread!!!!!!!!!!!! Scout-you ain't kidding! I've always been very tough on myself, especially with athletics and competition. It really doesn't solve anything! Add to that some legit rough times or experiences that life can throw at you and it can really throw a wrench in mental and physical well being!

One thing you are not mentioning was the heat on Sunday.  The heat Index was well past 100°F  I was doing the HIM up in door county (my first) with a goal time of 5:30 as well.  Here is how I predicted my time:

Swim:

Predicted avg pace 2 min/100 yds for 42 min.

Actual: 1:42 for 36 min. swim (much faster than expected)

I was very conservative here as swimming is what I'm least comfortable with.  i kept it VERY easy.  Most of my training for longer stuff was in the 1:35-1:45 in the pool, so this was pretty close

Bike:

Avg pace: 18.6 mph = 3:00

Actual pace: 18.5 mph = 3:02 (the bike was .3 miles long)

I had done SEVERAL training rides of 60-75 miles with an avg HR of 135, that's what I shot for on race day.  HOWEVER the heat was a major factor and it was EXTREMELY difficult to keep the HR down at the end, actual avg. HR ended up being 140.

Run:

Avg pace: 8:00 min/mile - 1:44

Actual pace: 10:36 min/mile - 2:19

My game plan was to keep the HR in the low 150s for the first 9-10 miles then let it go after that, with an open HM of 1:29:xx I figured this was very conservative.  I tend to be a very strong runner, this is where it really fell apart for me.  I blame this mostly on the heat (although it is also my fault for allowing my HR to get a bit high on the bike).  I walked the hills and ran as much as I could else-wise, WALKING the hills my HR was upwards of 150.  Also, I couldn't eat any nutrition because it just plain wouldn't digest.

I finished the race 6:00... with some heat exhaustion.  I drank 1.5 FULL cups of water per aid station (every 1.4 miles) and dumped much on myself.  Given better weather conditions I feel like (given my training) I could have achieved 5:30 fairly easily, but I do NOT handle the heat well.

where do I sign up for the pixie dust fairy speed plan ??

to some extent shouldn't our training "times" be bases on our race times.  Or at least as far as running goes?  I can see doing a bike test with Power/HR to determine what our training pace should be. but with running  shouldn't it be based on a recent time so we can set up our run pace.  I guess that doesn't matter if you are using HR though.

When I was racing I could usually predict my times fairly well unless something happened I didn't account for, Flats, illness. etc.  and I would just set one race goal based on training, not multiple ones where if the pixle dust was strong in that event  

I based my goal time off of training these days mainly because I'm not following any specific plan, just s/b/r at least twice a week each discipline.  But I have a fairly good idea of how I will do.

Heading into my first HIM this year I didn't have the run volume, nor the bike volume I wished I had so I thought maybe I could do a 5:30.  That was based on being able to hold a 8:15-8:30 pace on the run after a decent bike split.  Turned out I was pretty beat up last 6 miles of the run, had to walk a little, ended up 5:40.

Then this past sunday I did my first Oly and thought I'd do something in the neighborhood of 2:30, ended up at 2:34, again very slow last mile and slow on transitions.  I thought maybe a faster swim but all in all pretty close to expected.

When i first started Tri's my bike was weakest.  In my last race it was my strongest leg but now my run is down a little.  But I would say that lately I've had bike split goals, I wanted sub 3 hr in my HIM and wanted to average over 20 mph in my Oly, both achieved

For my next Oly my goal is to average 21 mph on the bike and go under 8:00 mm pace on the run.  If training does not go as expected I simply adjust those goals.

i can't ever estimate my run time after a bike correctly.  even though my splits and power is spot on.  its just different on race day.

for example my long 60 milers were 200w and i plan on running 8 min miles yet i crash and burn and run 8:30....i think i need to relook at nutrition for long course especially.

as far as short course training, i never predict i just go as hard as i can and so far i have been surprised, pleasantly surprised at every race.

Being a total newbie and out of shape when I started... I signed up for a 70.3. I looked at last years times and thought it was possible. I coach in a tri group looked at me like I was nuts... in fact everyone I mention it to looks at me like I'm nuts. It's not like I look like somebody ready to keel over.

So I have been training to hit my time... doing it sort of backwards. I had a sprint and a Oly and wanted to hit 3 hours on my Oly which I did in 2:56. There have been times I thought I was going to do it, and times I thought I was nuts.

So just that I have nothing to go by puts my out... but I have done my splits in training and feel confident I can hit them. By my oly time I can and it was not a particularly good day even though I made my time. We shall see in 2 weeks.

..... but I will say this being my first year and all... everyone just sort of pats me on the head and says worry about finishing. Well... sorry, I don't work that way. I knew I could finish when I signed up... I need a carrot. Come race day though it will be what it will be.... but at least I have been training hard all year for "something".