Predict my half marathon time/which pace group?

I have no advice on the pace group but I will make a wild guess of 2:04:33.  Good luck!

Are you wearing a costume? 

go with the 9's and drop back if you have to, I find it easier to slow than speed up.  Sometime the challenge of others is all you need.  I need a pace group for mine this weekend!  Its a tri relay so I hope I can latch onto someone's heels and they will drag me to my PR!

Good luck!!

Thanks guys, two answers I wanted to hear

Of course I am wearing a costume! Maybe I should haven't mentioned that   

when you say you're running much more than ever before any half...how much more are you running now compared to your HM PR?

I wouldn't be overly concerned with your lack of long runs.  IMO, overall mileage paints a much better picture.

Let's see.  We'll start with 2:06 (I'll give you the 14s).

1.  No recent long runs.  Plus 5 minutes. (2:11)

2.  Sick and little training recently.  Plus 5 more.  (2:16)

3.  Downhill course.  Minus 5.  (2:11)

4.  More overall volume recently.  Minus 5.  (2:06)

So there you go, a PB 2:06!

My strategy in HM is to go out strong and try to hold on.  That's the longest distance at which I'd adopt that strategy (and only in standalone HM, not in a HIM).  So I agree with the others -- go out strong and try to hold on.   But maybe going out at 9:00/mile isn't the best plan.  That's nearly 10s/mile faster than your dream goal of 2:00.  Don't underestimate how significant 10s/mile is.  For many people, at this distance, that's the difference between 'comfortably hard' and 'blowing up'.  I really think your best bet is to forget the pace groups and pace yourself at something more like 9:30/mile.  If you feel great at mile 8 or so, pick it up a bit.

I always want to try a pace group, but this is always my dilemma...    Probably smartest to start at the backside of the 9 group and not expect to hold on for long.   I totally agree that 10 second/mile is a lot, even for me running so very many seconds in any given mile.

For the last PR I was probably maxed at 65 miles/month

Last month I ran 80. 

Of course I probably weigh 10 lbs more...  Is that another -5? 

A week ago I was thinking I'd be happy to do 2:10 for a 2nd place PR.  Then I got thinking...

jawgee - 2011-10-27 10:19 PM I'll be the dreamer of the group and root for a 1:59:59 finishing time.

You'll be the first to know if that miracle happens!  You never know, the course may be mismeasured.

I'd go with the advice from "Experior".  I am also doing a half tomorrow, and my question is very much like yours.  Originally this race was going to be run at a training pace and my goal race was going to be Nov. 20.  However, due to a recent fairly severe flare-up of PF, I'm gonna run it like I stole it tomorrow and then back off and try to get this PF under control.  So it's doubtful that I will get to run the Nov. 20 HM.  My previous best time is 1:58:59.  My most recent best time is 2:04 on the same course.  Conditions are different this time.  Last time it was full sun and 80 degrees (3pm race), but tomorrow the high is 53, overcast with possible rain showers.  So, I'm gonna give it my all and try to beat 1:59.  I think I will go out at 9:30s and after mile 3 try to keep picking up the pace.  I'd love to be able to race the last 3.1.  So we'll see.  Good luck and I can't wait to see your race report!

jami   

My strategy then was the same as always, run what feels good (challenging but not hard) and see what happens.  That's about the only race where it's worked out, even I was surprised.   As I mentioned, my half marathons usually don't go that well.  Although the other "bad" races were all in hot weather, or hotter than normal (destination races where I ran in 50+ warmer temps than training).    This race will have "perfect" weather.

I do still have some coughing and will have to run with a small water, so I hope the cooler temps don't kick up a coughing fit.

So... it sounds like I don't need to necessarily hold way back in the early miles but definitely not go out at my best pace. 

Is the downhill steep or gradual? It makes a big difference. The steeper the decline, the more impact there is on the body. If you're not used to running long on steep descents it can cause you to go much slower than most would think.

My wife ran a 10 miler at about the same time you recently did. In a subsequent downhill HM she could only manage a 2:07. She also runs more mileage than you in training, but she is older.

My guess is 2:05:45. I don't see enough overall volume, long runs, or recent race results to indicate you're capable of pushing a faster pace. Properly trained, I think you can go well under 2 hours. You've got to do the work to get the results.

It's gradual.  I run parts of the course often and I would describe that it just has the feeling of "wow, I am really good today" and not "wow, I am running downhill."

I agree - I need more miles and need to lose weight before I can go much faster.  

Funny, I'm in nearly the same quandary as you.  We should probably just run together tomorrow.  This is only my 2nd half (standalone).  My first was a last minute thing, and my longest run prior to it had been a little over 8 miles.  I finished in 2:17.  This time I've got more running in, the TC 10 Mile at a 9:17 average (without an empty tank at the finish line), and other longer distance training runs.  But then again, I also did my first 70.3 last weekend.

My first plan was to go out with the 2:05 group (9:33 miles).  But now I'm considering starting with the 2:00 group (9:10 miles) and seeing what happens.  Depending on what your final goal is, you can look at it like I did.  First off, it's a fun race and we'll be wearing costumes.  Secondly, it's my last half until maybe January (Polar Dash edit: this is only a 10k), so maybe pushing it will be ok.  Thirdly, if I start out with the 2:05 group and feel really good at mile 6 or 7, there's no way I can up the pace and finish at 2:00 or less.  So why not just start with the 2:00 group.  If I feel good I'll stay with them, if I feel not-so-good, I'll fall back and maybe end up with the 2:05 group.  If I feel really good by mile 11 or 12, maybe I'll crank it up and finish for sure under 2:00.

Bottom line, I think starting with the 2:00 pace group gives more options, and over a HM distance course, worse case scenario we can't keep up, but probably won't blow up.

Andy!  Crap - I didn't realize there was a 2:05 group.   Duh.  

(p.s. my tank was totally empty after the TC10)

Well, then I think I will put myself right in front of that group.  My biggest worry was getting stuck in the mob and I was planning to break away from them at the 5 mile water stop.

I'll be looking for you - I don't think you'll be hard to find   I know I can run the 9:10 pace for a while, but I am not sure about that long of a while.  What a picture we'll make!

I am dying to see how it goes for you.  As you know, I think that running a hm after a 70.3 is kind of nutty, so I am very interested in your results. 

True dat!  I have the autolap set up and I look down when I hear it beep.

On the prediction, you might be right.  Fortunately with my autolap I can tell you if so.    I actually think I'll go closer to the early 9s in the first mile, race excitement and all.

I see your point.   Your follow-up reminded me I did just that at my last race - hit lap when I saw the mile marker.   

Although I think that knowing my time over a rough mile, whether the distance is based on Garmin's opinion or the race's, is useful enough.    I am using it as gauge and not actually trying to figure out when I will get to the end.   I'll end up running .1 extra or so, which isn't a big difference.  I am not fine tuning my pace by seconds.

The hard part is when I hit 13.1 and I am still not at the finish.  But at least I know in my heart that I ran 13.1 in a certain time, even if it's not official.

Cute.    If only!   Despite all those muscles, I don't think you're strong enough to pull me that far.

First, the prize goes to Experior.   Scout also had an accurate guess, but I liked Experior's methodology was good and he was more specific.

I ran...  2:06:41 (13.2 miles)

A frustratingly 27 seconds slower than my best, BUT it makes that other 2:06 seem more reasonable and beatable.  I am sure if I had trained better for this event (and not an "addon" and being sick), I can surely PR it.

I struggled a lot in the last 5 miles and really struggled in the last 3.  They snuck in a HUGE hill around mile 11 at a bad time and it zapped everyone.  But overall this was a pretty darn fast course. 

And I learned a lesson, Yeats was right.  Pace groups suck.  The 2:05 group finished ahead of my friend who ran a 2:04.   I shouldn't have tried to keep up with them and I ran too fast too many times.