Subject: RE: Predict my marathon time Not to be a downer, but if your mileage was double what you're currently running per week (70 vs 35), I'd say 3:10 would be a stretch based on your race times. With low mileage it's not even feasible. A general rule is to double your HM time and add ten minutes for a marathon (that would currently be 3:22ish), but that is if you have done a solid marathon build. I consider a minimum of 50 mpw decent mileage for using the online race calculators, with 60-70 being ideal for most runners. To give you an idea, I ran a 3:09 in my first marathon 13 months ago, averaging 55 mpw over 18 weeks, and my 5k PR was around 18:15 at the time. I've since dropped my 5k time a bit more and am looking to crack 3:00 in NYC in two weeks. You could try to go out around 7:15 pace, which is what a 7:10 equates to, but I don't think you'd be able to hang on. With 35 mpw, that infamous 'wall' will materialize around the 18-20 mile mark. I'll go with 3:27:47 for your time. |