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2014-02-26 4:45 PM

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Subject: Will pot be big business?

I thought about putting this in the "investment thread" or in the "two great tastes" thread, but it really deserves its own discussion.

With Washington and Colorado now having legalized cannabis, and other states soon to follow, there's a whole new set of investment opportunities on the pot industry horizon. 

Things like:

Cannabis Sativa (CBDS), which purportedly has purchased the first patented medical marijuana strain from "Kush Inc" (real name, I swear) http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post--marijuana-stocks-are-smokin

MedBox (MDBX)--pot vending machines (fo real, yo)

GreenGro (GRNH)--pot growing supplies and whatnot

Vape Holdings (VAPE)--makers of many things, including "O.Pen Vape" the pot version of the e-cigarette http://www.cnbc.com/id/101445913(that's one giant leap right around no-smoking in public establishment laws)

I'm curious to hear from those of you who live in Washington and Colorado about how legalization has impacted business in your areas.  It seems like it could really help some (other) local businesses and could (possibly) negatively impact others. 

I'm also trying to imagine how it works in reality.  I know there isn't too much of a stigma attached to walking out of a liquor store, but I'm wondering if, at least at first, people will not want to be seen buying/using pot?

 



2014-02-26 5:04 PM
in reply to: switch

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

It will be interesting to see how it develops here in Washington. What we're hearing is that our shops should be open sometime this summer. It seems like they've taken their time and trying to get it right. It will be 18 months or more since the measure passed to the time that it actually hits the stores.

The initial reports out of Colorado are saying that revenues are outpacing expectations.

As far as the stigma goes, I don't really see that. I don't know if you saw any of the national coverage when Colorado went live, but customers were lined outside waiting and no one seemed to care that the camera crews were there.

2014-02-26 5:04 PM
in reply to: switch

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?
Of course.

If one or 2 states legalize I am sure the cigarette companies will be in the game big time.
2014-02-26 5:18 PM
in reply to: zed707

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by zed707

It will be interesting to see how it develops here in Washington. What we're hearing is that our shops should be open sometime this summer. It seems like they've taken their time and trying to get it right. It will be 18 months or more since the measure passed to the time that it actually hits the stores.

The initial reports out of Colorado are saying that revenues are outpacing expectations.

As far as the stigma goes, I don't really see that. I don't know if you saw any of the national coverage when Colorado went live, but customers were lined outside waiting and no one seemed to care that the camera crews were there.

It's interesting that there's that big a lag for stores to open.  Is it because of bureaucratic stuff?  I'm guessing whoever is first-to-market in a given area can make a killing.

I didn't see the coverage, but I can imagine that there are plenty of people who don't care if they're seen buying pot, but when I try to imagine people I know or work with, I'm guessing it would give them pause, at least at first.  Doctors? Teachers? I don't know, I don't think it's a big deal, and I don't think it will deter folks for long, but I wonder if it might give operations that are more off the beaten path an advantage. 

Probably not.  Then they'd all just see each other at that place;)

 

 

2014-02-26 6:30 PM
in reply to: switch

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?
One major set of issue.

Pot is still illegal federally. Ownership, possession, sale, growing, all illegal.
It's illegal to money launder proceeds from illegal sales.
Banks can be shut down if they knowingly accept money from illegal activity.

President Obama cannot wave his magic pen and make any of that illegal. That requires congress passing another set of laws.

Banks know this and it's already touchy. Banks also know the next president may very well not be so willing to overlook drug laws.

2014-02-26 6:55 PM
in reply to: DanielG

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by DanielG One major set of issue. Pot is still illegal federally. Ownership, possession, sale, growing, all illegal. It's illegal to money launder proceeds from illegal sales. Banks can be shut down if they knowingly accept money from illegal activity. President Obama cannot wave his magic pen and make any of that illegal. That requires congress passing another set of laws. Banks know this and it's already touchy. Banks also know the next president may very well not be so willing to overlook drug laws.

Hmmm.  Ok.

I wonder what the work-around is then for people who are buying and selling these stocks?

 



2014-02-26 7:09 PM
in reply to: switch

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?
2014-02-26 7:11 PM
in reply to: switch

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by switch

Originally posted by DanielG One major set of issue. Pot is still illegal federally. Ownership, possession, sale, growing, all illegal. It's illegal to money launder proceeds from illegal sales. Banks can be shut down if they knowingly accept money from illegal activity. President Obama cannot wave his magic pen and make any of that illegal. That requires congress passing another set of laws. Banks know this and it's already touchy. Banks also know the next president may very well not be so willing to overlook drug laws.

Hmmm.  Ok.

I wonder what the work-around is then for people who are buying and selling these stocks?

 

 

 Buying and selling of stocks is a legal activity.  INVESTING in a company that does illegal things is also legal. (I mean, there's lots of investors in JPMorgan, and they've done a ton of illegal things.

Are all banks federally regulated, or only the ones that offer FDIC/SLIC deposit insurance?  Is there a market for a bank (shadow bank?) that offers uninsured deposits?

2014-02-26 7:22 PM
in reply to: jeffnboise

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by jeffnboise

AG Holder thinks it CAN be done....

http://www.thefix.com/content/attorney-general-open-banking-pot-business

Thanks for that link.  Interesting.

Also, for those who might be interested, CNBC has this on tonight at 10 Eastern

2014-02-26 7:27 PM
in reply to: moondawg14

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by moondawg14

Originally posted by switch

Originally posted by DanielG One major set of issue. Pot is still illegal federally. Ownership, possession, sale, growing, all illegal. It's illegal to money launder proceeds from illegal sales. Banks can be shut down if they knowingly accept money from illegal activity. President Obama cannot wave his magic pen and make any of that illegal. That requires congress passing another set of laws. Banks know this and it's already touchy. Banks also know the next president may very well not be so willing to overlook drug laws.

Hmmm.  Ok.

I wonder what the work-around is then for people who are buying and selling these stocks?

 

 

 Buying and selling of stocks is a legal activity.  INVESTING in a company that does illegal things is also legal. (I mean, there's lots of investors in JPMorgan, and they've done a ton of illegal things.

Are all banks federally regulated, or only the ones that offer FDIC/SLIC deposit insurance?  Is there a market for a bank (shadow bank?) that offers uninsured deposits?

Right?

coughhalliburtoncough

It's a long list. There's a work-around.

It also appears that there are banks, and major ones, willing to take on the risk...

I'd like to see the first cannabis-based MF or ETF :)

 

 

2014-02-27 8:18 AM
in reply to: switch

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Let me be open here.  I can't stand the smell of Pot.  And since legalization here, you smell it everywhere.  (I'm not exaggerating)  I've seen people in their cars with bongs in their lap.  People smoking in parking lots, parks, etc..  So I will say I'm not happy.

But...  An interesting peice on the news this morning.  More that 40% of sales are on edibles.  If that continues to rise, then I would have less problem with it.  At that point it is to me the same as alcohol.  And while I don't like the idea of a new vice for people, and I will continue to abstain, people should make their own decision.  

Hopefully we don't end up a state of stoners...   



2014-02-27 8:27 AM
in reply to: velocomp

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by velocomp

Let me be open here.  I can't stand the smell of Pot.  And since legalization here, you smell it everywhere.  (I'm not exaggerating)  I've seen people in their cars with bongs in their lap.  People smoking in parking lots, parks, etc..  So I will say I'm not happy.

But...  An interesting peice on the news this morning.  More that 40% of sales are on edibles.  If that continues to rise, then I would have less problem with it.  At that point it is to me the same as alcohol.  And while I don't like the idea of a new vice for people, and I will continue to abstain, people should make their own decision.  

Hopefully we don't end up a state of stoners...   

Bongs in their lap while driving?  That's not good.

 

Edibles are a game changer.  I can't imagine why anyone would want to put smoke in their lungs if they can get the same high off of an edible. 

Is THC a carcinogen (or other health risk) if consumed as an edible?

 

 

 

2014-02-27 8:47 AM
in reply to: switch

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?
Originally posted by switch

Is THC a carcinogen (or other health risk) if consumed as an edible?

 

 

 




The carcinogens are generally (not entirely but generally) from the burning process.

One reason the e-cigarettes aren't near as horrible and probably should be exempt from the smoking laws is the whole it's not burning thing.

I wouldn't mind seeing open container laws while driving expanded to include use of pot, though.
2014-02-27 9:37 AM
in reply to: switch

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by switch

Originally posted by velocomp

Let me be open here.  I can't stand the smell of Pot.  And since legalization here, you smell it everywhere.  (I'm not exaggerating)  I've seen people in their cars with bongs in their lap.  People smoking in parking lots, parks, etc..  So I will say I'm not happy.

But...  An interesting peice on the news this morning.  More that 40% of sales are on edibles.  If that continues to rise, then I would have less problem with it.  At that point it is to me the same as alcohol.  And while I don't like the idea of a new vice for people, and I will continue to abstain, people should make their own decision.  

Hopefully we don't end up a state of stoners...   

Bongs in their lap while driving?  That's not good.

 

Yeah, I probably wouldn't have noticed if not for the smell.  I started looking around to see who was smoking, and saw the guy in the car next to me, lips pressed on the lip of the bong.  Really sad.

Edibles are a game changer.  I can't imagine why anyone would want to put smoke in their lungs if they can get the same high off of an edible. 

Is THC a carcinogen (or other health risk) if consumed as an edible?

 

 

 

2014-02-27 9:48 AM
in reply to: switch

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by switch

Originally posted by DanielG One major set of issue. Pot is still illegal federally. Ownership, possession, sale, growing, all illegal. It's illegal to money launder proceeds from illegal sales. Banks can be shut down if they knowingly accept money from illegal activity. President Obama cannot wave his magic pen and make any of that illegal. That requires congress passing another set of laws. Banks know this and it's already touchy. Banks also know the next president may very well not be so willing to overlook drug laws.

Hmmm.  Ok.

I wonder what the work-around is then for people who are buying and selling these stocks?

 

It's been big business for as long as I have been alive. 

I think that Eric Holder has already conveyed to the banks that they can open accounts for the MJ distributors and they won't face any adverse actions by his office. I don't know that he has the legal authority to grant them this "waiver" or what the next administration could do. 

That is one of the big problems the MJ distributors are facing is what to do with the cash. I'm not sure what the credit card companies are doing?

Are there any of the MJ companies publicly traded?

2014-02-27 10:13 AM
in reply to: crusevegas

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

 

I saw a report yesterday of a guy who is making a killing running a security company. He can't hire guards fast enough to cover the pot shops and to move their money around for them. 

Lookie there, stoners creating jobs in this economy. Maybe we should legalize MJ in Washington DC and see if it does us any good.



2014-02-27 10:37 AM
in reply to: Aarondb4

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?
For me, the really interesting thing will be seeing how the drug cartels react when these "legal" outlets really start cutting into their business.


2014-02-27 10:52 AM
in reply to: NXS

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by NXS For me, the really interesting thing will be seeing how the drug cartels react when these "legal" outlets really start cutting into their business.

Wasn't the Kennedy family involved in the Rum business in the 20's & 30's?

The biggest problem with ill gotten gains is how to convert the cash into "usable" money, it appears that the road for MJ money is currently being constructed. 

2014-02-27 10:53 AM
in reply to: NXS

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by NXS For me, the really interesting thing will be seeing how the drug cartels react when these "legal" outlets really start cutting into their business.

Once it's legal everywhere there will still be a huge black market to deal with......especially if they undercut the price of legal weed.  It will be very hard to enforce unless the weed you had in your possession had a tax stamp or something similar.  The more regulations that govt. puts on weed the bigger the black market will be.  Personally, I don't see the point of all the regulation.  It's just a money grab the same as it always has been. Grow your own!

2014-02-27 10:54 AM
in reply to: crusevegas

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by crusevegas

Originally posted by switch

Originally posted by DanielG One major set of issue. Pot is still illegal federally. Ownership, possession, sale, growing, all illegal. It's illegal to money launder proceeds from illegal sales. Banks can be shut down if they knowingly accept money from illegal activity. President Obama cannot wave his magic pen and make any of that illegal. That requires congress passing another set of laws. Banks know this and it's already touchy. Banks also know the next president may very well not be so willing to overlook drug laws.

Hmmm.  Ok.

I wonder what the work-around is then for people who are buying and selling these stocks?

 

It's been big business for as long as I have been alive. 

I think that Eric Holder has already conveyed to the banks that they can open accounts for the MJ distributors and they won't face any adverse actions by his office. I don't know that he has the legal authority to grant them this "waiver" or what the next administration could do. 

That is one of the big problems the MJ distributors are facing is what to do with the cash. I'm not sure what the credit card companies are doing?

Are there any of the MJ companies publicly traded?

Yes, most are OTC, and many are penny stocks, but there are others like MedBox (MDBX), which seem more legit, but even the MedBox chair is saying it's overpriced at the moment. If you look at there 3 or 6 month pricing/trading, most had a crazy peak in January, following Colorado's opening of the market.

More info and a list: http://www.thcbiz.com/marijuana-stocks.html

It seems like big banks will and future administrations will bend over backwards to try to get/keep as big a share of this cash as possible.

And NXS brings up a good point.  How will drug cartels get their piece back?  It won't make sense for businesses (and taxes) to push a price, if you can get the same good on the street for less.

MMJ Stocks

Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes.
CBIS 0.18 ?0.007 (-3.85%)
CANN 28.80 ?3.70 (-11.38%)
CANV 158.01 ?8.01 (5.34%)
CBDS 11.76 ?1.64 (-12.24%)
CTH.V CA$1.30 ?0.10 (-7.14%)
EAPH 0.05 ?0.0027 (-5.09%)
EDXC 0.19 ?0.011 (-5.50%)
ENDO 0.10 ?0.007 (-6.85%)
ERBB 0.03 ?0.0019 (-5.43%)
EXMT 0.01 ?0.0005 (-5.68%)
FITX 0.08 ?0.0017 (-1.98%)
FSPM 5.86 ?0.32 (-5.18%)
GRNH 0.48 ?0.022 (4.70%)
GWP.L GBX306.62 ?9.36 (3.15%)
HEMP 0.14 ?0.006 (-3.79%)
MCIG 0.40 ?0.020 (5.16%)
MDBX 29.50 ?2.22 (-7.00%)
MJNA 0.30 ?0.014 (-4.39%)
MNTR 4.13 ?0.45 (-9.83%)
MWIP 0.37 ?0.008 (2.23%)
NVLX 0.50 ?0.102 (25.95%)
PHOT 0.39 ?0.007 (-1.67%)
PLPL 1.48 ?0.08 (-5.13%)
RIGH 0.00 ?0.0002 (-12.50%)
RFMK 0.00 ?0.0002 (6.06%)
SKTO 0.03 ?0.0013 (-4.36%)
TRTC 0.52 ?0.010 (1.96%)
VAPE 19.50 ?0.15 (0.78%)
VMGI 0.01 ?0.0039 (56.52%)

Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes.
- See more at: http://www.thcbiz.com/marijuana-stocks.html#sthash.lJg6SrHS.dpuf id="stcpDiv" style="position: absolute; top: -1999px; left: -1988px;">

MMJ Stocks

Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes.
CBIS 0.18 ?0.007 (-3.85%)
CANN 28.80 ?3.70 (-11.38%)
CANV 158.01 ?8.01 (5.34%)
CBDS 11.76 ?1.64 (-12.24%)
CTH.V CA$1.30 ?0.10 (-7.14%)
EAPH 0.05 ?0.0027 (-5.09%)
EDXC 0.19 ?0.011 (-5.50%)
ENDO 0.10 ?0.007 (-6.85%)
ERBB 0.03 ?0.0019 (-5.43%)
EXMT 0.01 ?0.0005 (-5.68%)
FITX 0.08 ?0.0017 (-1.98%)
FSPM 5.86 ?0.32 (-5.18%)
GRNH 0.48 ?0.022 (4.70%)
GWP.L GBX306.62 ?9.36 (3.15%)
HEMP 0.14 ?0.006 (-3.79%)
MCIG 0.40 ?0.020 (5.16%)
MDBX 29.50 ?2.22 (-7.00%)
MJNA 0.30 ?0.014 (-4.39%)
MNTR 4.13 ?0.45 (-9.83%)
MWIP 0.37 ?0.008 (2.23%)
NVLX 0.50 ?0.102 (25.95%)
PHOT 0.39 ?0.007 (-1.67%)
PLPL 1.48 ?0.08 (-5.13%)
RIGH 0.00 ?0.0002 (-12.50%)
RFMK 0.00 ?0.0002 (6.06%)
SKTO 0.03 ?0.0013 (-4.36%)
TRTC 0.52 ?0.010 (1.96%)
VAPE 19.50 ?0.15 (0.78%)
VMGI 0.01 ?0.0039 (56.52%)

Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes.
- See more at: http://www.thcbiz.com/marijuana-stocks.html#sthash.lJg6SrHS.dpuf
2014-02-27 1:28 PM
in reply to: jeffnboise

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?
Originally posted by jeffnboise

AG Holder thinks it CAN be done....

http://www.thefix.com/content/attorney-general-open-banking-pot-business




Yeah, for some reason I thought it was a law and that laws had to be changed/rescinded by the legislature.

Why bother having three branches of government when one can rule by fiat.



2014-02-27 5:21 PM
in reply to: DanielG

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?

Originally posted by DanielG
Originally posted by jeffnboise

AG Holder thinks it CAN be done....

http://www.thefix.com/content/attorney-general-open-banking-pot-business

Yeah, for some reason I thought it was a law and that laws had to be changed/rescinded by the legislature. Why bother having three branches of government when one can rule by fiat.

I'm sure it's going to sound like I'm trying to be a smartass here, so big disclaimer: I'm not :)

Is there any kind of precedent with state v federal laws like this?  It kinda makes sense that the AG would give a directive in this instance, if for no other reason than the purported 'pulblic safety" issue of large amounts of on-hand cash.  At the rate it takes Congress to do anything, I'm not convinced that would have happened (could still happen?) efficiently enough to handle the issue and the AG would have had to do or say something anyway.

I know it's de rigueur to be critical of this administration, and I can certainly do that :) but I'm not sure this wasn't a good call.

 

2014-02-27 5:51 PM
in reply to: switch

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?
Originally posted by switch

I'm sure it's going to sound like I'm trying to be a smartass here, so big disclaimer: I'm not

Is there any kind of precedent with state v federal laws like this?  It kinda makes sense that the AG would give a directive in this instance, if for no other reason than the purported 'pulblic safety" issue of large amounts of on-hand cash.  At the rate it takes Congress to do anything, I'm not convinced that would have happened (could still happen?) efficiently enough to handle the issue and the AG would have had to do or say something anyway.

I know it's de rigueur to be critical of this administration, and I can certainly do that but I'm not sure this wasn't a good call.

 




I honestly don't give a damn what administration is doing it. This is at least as wrong as all the other stuff being done in this "I've got a pen and a phone" administration. At least the last administration had the integrity to get the damned Patriot Act passed by congress and not just by fiat.

No, it's not the same.

Plus all the banks that decide to go along with this can rest assured if the next administration is anti-drug each of the banks will get worked over so yeah they may get by with it for a couple years...

2014-02-27 6:46 PM
in reply to: DanielG

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?
This reminds me more and more of the Nixon administration. IRS sick 'em is the most obvious but Chicago politics is what this whole thing has been for five years.
2014-02-27 7:07 PM
in reply to: DanielG

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Subject: RE: Will pot be big business?
What do you think would have been the right/best move and who should have made it after the states' legalization laws were passed?
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