Oly race speed = Long ride speed

I can't answer but can commiserate.  I seem to have a very similar issue and am anxious to see what the masses have to say.

What do you mean by this exactly?  How do you pace your rides?  By cadence, speed, RPE? 

Unless you're riding identical courses in identical conditions, then speed may not be the best way to compare your performance.

Mark

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I think we all have had that happen to us at one time or another.  Stuff happens sometimes.  I did a race two years ago when I thought I was well prepared and then my bike pace was super slow - even stopped midway to see if I had a brake dragging or some other mechanical problem.  Just didn't have it that day. 

I've also had races where the opposite happened and I did much better than I expected, for no obvious reason.

Mark

Personally, I've not been successful when I tried to pace myself by HR in a race.  I still track and record my HR data, but now ride primarily by a combination of cadence & RPE.  I'll ride at 80-85 most of the time on long training rides, with hard intervals a bit higher at 90-95.  I usually don't get over 100 unless I'm sprinting.

In races, I try to meter my effort on the bike so I still have enough left on the run.  That's usually a cadence in the range of 85-90 for me.  I'm a poor runner, so if anything I'll push a bit harder on the bike since that seems to help my overall race performance more as opposed to holding back too much on the bike and hoping for a miracle on the run. 

Mark

If your logs are current, you need more volume.  Both in the bike and definitely the swim.  Do have any intervals in your rides?

To add a bit, it's not necessary to be exhausted from the swim for it to have an effect on the other parts of the race. I think many underestimate this, an oly swim is often harder than thought. I've felt better in a sprint duathlon bike after running 20 min just under threshold vs a similar bike in a sprint tri after a 14 min swim that was fairly easy effort.

The timing also matters a lot too. Even 20-30 minutes later can make things quite a bit easier to do in the second activity, let alone a full day before, as compared to going at it immediately.

Other things like wind can be hard to judge as well. Did the same Oly 2 years in a row. Same setup and route both times. Rode ~5 watts higher the second time, but was near 4 minutes slower with what seemed like only a little more wind. The direction and speed of it at various places along the course just made a significant difference. It was blocked where it would have helped us and felt it fully when going into it due to tree coverage. Times were down across the board.

Pointing out the obvious, the Olympic swim is over twice the bolded amount.  Whoever told you to swim less gave you horrible advice.  I try to get 10km in a week, and I feel like that's not enough swimming.

5 hours a week on the bike is ok.  You had several 3 hourish weeks before that though.  A few weeks of 3 rides a week with one having short intervals (several intervals 1,3, or 5 mins HARD), one having more threshold efforts (2x10-20min @ race pace), and one longer easier, ride should net you some improved bike fitness.  You can do 1:15, 1:15, 2:30 for these rides as a skeleton to which you can build or move around depending on your workouts.

All that will be for naught if you enter T1 tired, however.

I agree with Shane that the swim can take a lot more energy than most people think.  Especially an Oly swim.  That's almost the same distance as a HIM swim and it's pretty hard to ride really hard for an hour right after it unless you have good swim fitness.  With a HIM, you can sort of let your HR settle for 15-20 minutes before settling into your effort.  With an Oly, you're pushing the effort basically the whole race and your performance will suffer if you are not prepared for it.

That said, I still think there are other factors involved.

1.  Was the avg speed from your race off your computer or from the race results?  If it was off your computer, are you sure you started and stopped your timer properly not adding time to drop your avg speed?  Or if it was from the race results, are you sure the course wasn't long...again...thus dropping your avg speed?  Maybe you actually averaged 19ish mph but something is causing you to think you averaged 17.7.

2.  Even if the courses are similar in profile, wind and road surface can play a big factor.  If the race course had a lot of wind and poor roads in comparison to your training ride...that can make a big difference.

3.  Did you get any draft benefit on your training ride?  Riding with a group or a friend?

4.  Losing 1 minute by dropping your chain twice could be closer to 90 seconds lost when you consider you have to decelerate, and reaccelerate.  90 seconds over the course of an Oly, at your approximate speed, is almost 0.5 mph...so really your race was closer to 18.1-18.2 mph.