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predicting race performance
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 2016-06-12 12:25 PM |
 439   nashville, Tennessee |  Subject: predicting race performanceI am doing a sprint tri in a week and yesterday I decided to do a race simulation. I did a 20 mi bike/5k run and pushed myself as if I was racing. I am wondering what I should expect of my race performance in comparison to my workout yesterday. I've had a hard training week. The day before my race simulation I did a hard interval run of 5 x 800m intervals for a total of 5 mile run. The day before that I did a hard 1 hr trainerroad workout. So I'm wondering after a good cut back in volume this coming week and good rest if I could expect a better performance. What would you expect? |
| 2016-06-12 2:06 PM in reply to: mchadcota2 |
Champion 9407  Montague Gold Mines, Nova Scotia | Subject: RE: predicting race performance |
| 2016-06-12 2:20 PM in reply to: gsmacleod |
| 439 nashville, Tennessee | Subject: RE: predicting race performance terrible |
| 2016-06-12 3:22 PM in reply to: mchadcota2 |
Master 2429 Falls Church, Virginia | Subject: RE: predicting race performance Terrible how? Do you get exhausted easily and expend a lot of energy? Or are simply very slow? How tired you are coming out of the water will impact the rest of your race. |
| 2016-06-12 4:04 PM in reply to: mchadcota2 |
Champion 9407 Montague Gold Mines, Nova Scotia | Subject: RE: predicting race performance Then I would say it's likely you exit the swim, struggle to find a good rhythm for the first 1/4 to 1/3 of the bike, then push to make up for "lost" time and hit the run and feel like you hit the wall within the first 1/2 mile. Shane |
| 2016-06-12 5:11 PM in reply to: gsmacleod |
| 370 , North Carolina | Subject: RE: predicting race performance With a week of rest you should perform better than what you did today. Notwithstanding how well your swim goes. Generally racing brings out another gear that hard training. Proper nutrition late is always important. Make sure to get good sleep on Wed/Thur night even back to Tuesday if you can. I only had 3.5 hours of sleep the night before my race but was ready to go because I made a solid point to sleep well tue/wed/thur. But with a week of "rest" before your race don't just stop working out. You still need to be moving this week. Just don't do any interval work or hard/long sessions. Is this your first race? Open water? |
| 2016-06-13 8:54 AM in reply to: gsmacleod |
| 439 nashville, Tennessee | Subject: RE: predicting race performance That's kinda what I was expecting Shane. Except there are no walls when I race. Originally posted by gsmacleod Then I would say it's likely you exit the swim, struggle to find a good rhythm for the first 1/4 to 1/3 of the bike, then push to make up for "lost" time and hit the run and feel like you hit the wall within the first 1/2 mile. Shane |
| 2016-06-13 9:29 AM in reply to: mchadcota2 |
Veteran 2297 Great White North | Subject: RE: predicting race performance Hard intervals the day before a simulation is caveman training. You really need to use some judgement there. Sounds like you are not confident in you preparation and decided to do the sim the day after a tough run session. This kind of doubt and self sabotage can make race day miserable?and you're not properly recovered. |
| 2016-06-13 10:12 AM in reply to: simpsonbo |
| 439 nashville, Tennessee | Subject: RE: predicting race performance Yeah that's not a regular practice for me. Its just kinda the way my schedule played out for the week. Saturday was the only time I could do a workout that would be similar to race day so I just did it. I was just curious how other people's training performance compares to their race day performance. I'm not too concerned about my fitness. I'm sure I will win the race but I'm just not sure by how much. |
| 2016-06-13 10:17 AM in reply to: mchadcota2 |
| 137 Birmingham, Alabama | Subject: RE: predicting race performance Originally posted by mchadcota2 Yeah that's not a regular practice for me. Its just kinda the way my schedule played out for the week. Saturday was the only time I could do a workout that would be similar to race day so I just did it. I was just curious how other people's training performance compares to their race day performance. I'm not too concerned about my fitness. I'm sure I will win the race but I'm just not sure by how much. I did a similar practice-tri recently and was able to improve my bike and run times just a little (less than 1 minute each). The swim ended up being 100 yards longer than it was supposed to because the folks putting on the race just sort of guessed where to put the buoys. Doesn't matter since everyone swam the same course, but it also makes it hard to predict. I don't see any reason you should expect much difference between your practice and the event. |
| 2016-06-13 10:45 AM in reply to: mchadcota2 |
1502  Katy, Texas | Subject: RE: predicting race performance Originally posted by mchadcota2 I'm sure I will win the race but I'm just not sure by how much. Wow...that's some confidence there. Just curious what your paces (and power on the bike) were on your test run. Would you share? As for the original question; I think that has as much to do with how you taper. I've found that tapering is really personal. Some people do better with less rest, some with more. I'm still trying to figure it out myself. |
| 2016-06-13 2:54 PM in reply to: 3mar |
| 439 nashville, Tennessee | Subject: RE: predicting race performance Haha! Totally kidding about the winning the race. Thought I'd get some flack for that. No chance I'm winning a race. Unless I'm faster than everyone else  My ultimate goal for awhile has been to bike 23 mph for a sprint race. I have yet to do that but I have been doing that pretty regularly in training lately. My FTP is "272" according to the very unreliable trainerroad 8 minute test. The last 3 or 4 times I have ridden 20 miles hard I have averaged between 23.1-23.4. So this past Saturday I did 20 miles hard as I could and avg'd 23.2 but that was the day after a hard run workout. So I'm kinda hoping I might have a chance to hit my 23 mph goal on rested legs. Originally posted by 3mar Originally posted by mchadcota2 I'm sure I will win the race but I'm just not sure by how much. Wow...that's some confidence there. Just curious what your paces (and power on the bike) were on your test run. Would you share? As for the original question; I think that has as much to do with how you taper. I've found that tapering is really personal. Some people do better with less rest, some with more. I'm still trying to figure it out myself. |
| 2016-06-13 3:23 PM in reply to: #5186491 |
| 20 | Subject: RE: predicting race performance Enjoy your first race. Will be a tremendous eye-opener. Do not worry about times. Read about pacing and race execution. Have seen far too many people blow up on run. Set a goal to finish and have fun. |
| 2016-06-13 4:10 PM in reply to: mchadcota2 |
| 1502 Katy, Texas | Subject: RE: predicting race performance Originally posted by mchadcota2 Haha! Totally kidding about the winning the race. Thought I'd get some flack for that. No chance I'm winning a race. Unless I'm faster than everyone else My ultimate goal for awhile has been to bike 23 mph for a sprint race. I have yet to do that but I have been doing that pretty regularly in training lately. My FTP is "272" according to the very unreliable trainerroad 8 minute test. The last 3 or 4 times I have ridden 20 miles hard I have averaged between 23.1-23.4. So this past Saturday I did 20 miles hard as I could and avg'd 23.2 but that was the day after a hard run workout. So I'm kinda hoping I might have a chance to hit my 23 mph goal on rested legs. Originally posted by 3mar Originally posted by mchadcota2 I'm sure I will win the race but I'm just not sure by how much. Wow...that's some confidence there. Just curious what your paces (and power on the bike) were on your test run. Would you share? As for the original question; I think that has as much to do with how you taper. I've found that tapering is really personal. Some people do better with less rest, some with more. I'm still trying to figure it out myself. From someone who over analyzes just about everything; my advice to you is to just race it. I made that mistake on my first sprint this year and overthought my way out of a good performance. It's a sprint, so swim like h3ll, bike like h3ll and then run like h3ll...don't look at your watch. Especially at speed. If anything, keep an eye on power, but don't let it push you out of what you feel. On a flat course, assuming you are decently aero, you should have no issue hitting 23ish based on your FTP. On a (failed) KOM attempt on a segment that was 14 miles long about two weeks ago, I hit an average of 24.2 mph on just south of 240 watts, and my position is far from perfect. But again, it is a three discipline race, so don't kill yourself on a biking goal. Just my advice though. |
| 2016-06-13 5:40 PM in reply to: mchadcota2 |
Member 622 Franklin, TN | Subject: RE: predicting race performance Which race are you doing? Tellico or Old Hickory? |
| 2016-06-13 6:58 PM in reply to: 3mar |
| Subject: RE: predicting race performance Originally posted by 3mar Originally posted by mchadcota2 Haha! Totally kidding about the winning the race. Thought I'd get some flack for that. No chance I'm winning a race. Unless I'm faster than everyone else From someone who over analyzes just about everything; my advice to you is to just race it. I made that mistake on my first sprint this year and overthought my way out of a good performance. It's a sprint, so swim like h3ll, bike like h3ll and then run like h3ll...don't look at your watch. Especially at speed. If anything, keep an eye on power, but don't let it push you out of what you feel. On a flat course, assuming you are decently aero, you should have no issue hitting 23ish based on your FTP. On a (failed) KOM attempt on a segment that was 14 miles long about two weeks ago, I hit an average of 24.2 mph on just south of 240 watts, and my position is far from perfect. But again, it is a three discipline race, so don't kill yourself on a biking goal. Just my advice though. My ultimate goal for awhile has been to bike 23 mph for a sprint race. I have yet to do that but I have been doing that pretty regularly in training lately. My FTP is "272" according to the very unreliable trainerroad 8 minute test. The last 3 or 4 times I have ridden 20 miles hard I have averaged between 23.1-23.4. So this past Saturday I did 20 miles hard as I could and avg'd 23.2 but that was the day after a hard run workout. So I'm kinda hoping I might have a chance to hit my 23 mph goal on rested legs. Originally posted by 3mar Originally posted by mchadcota2 I'm sure I will win the race but I'm just not sure by how much. Wow...that's some confidence there. Just curious what your paces (and power on the bike) were on your test run. Would you share? As for the original question; I think that has as much to do with how you taper. I've found that tapering is really personal. Some people do better with less rest, some with more. I'm still trying to figure it out myself. Yup. Just remember there's no such thing as a killer bike and a bad run in triathlon |
| 2016-06-13 7:15 PM in reply to: mchadcota2 |
Expert 1168 Vancouver (not Canada) Washington (not D.C.) | Subject: RE: predicting race performance In my experience, I've never been able to judge my race performance based on race simulation. Too many variables. Racing is faster with roads closed and being able to focus on biking. Yet they can be slower depending on your swim and what sort of bikers are on course. You have other bikes and holding your ideal pace in the midst of other bikes isn't easy. The run in a race is always different because of congestion or the challenge of holding your pace when running in a group. Like others have said, keep training, set your paces and execute. Your race will answer this question unless you screw it up by doing insecure training. |
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