General Discussion Triathlon Talk » Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon Rss Feed  
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2013-07-10 10:14 PM

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2013-07-10 10:25 PM
in reply to: jdl2012

Expert
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Fernandina Beach, FL
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Originally posted by jdl2012

http://www.marathonguide.com/fitnesscalcs/predictcalc.cfm

what do you think?

Based on this a 19:30 - 5k should qualify for Boston beating the 3:10 threshold.



Based on my last 10k time it says i'll miss my BQ time in Feb by 13 seconds However McMillan says I'll miss by 2 minutes? Curious how they calculate their times. Either way I'd take it with a grain of salt. 5k to marathon is too wide a range. 5k times could be close to 10k predictions, 10k to HM, HM to Marathon. Maybe that's just me though
2013-07-10 10:30 PM
in reply to: 0


643
50010025
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Hmm, don't think it's safe to use a 5K to estimate marathon times.  I haven't run a 5K only in a while but I run multiple 6:30-6:50 minute miles on my interval days (multiple 6 min Z4 intervals + 2 min jog) and run over an hour total but my best marathon was a few months was just under 3:24, which is still a good 20 minutes off for me to BQ.  Point being, that I think I could run a 19:30ish 5K like you, if I tried and had some rested legs.  I think you'd need to run a 1/2 marathon to get reasonable estimate. You still need to pace yourself on a marathon and know your limits through training.

Edited by Blastman 2013-07-10 10:43 PM
2013-07-10 10:38 PM
in reply to: jdl2012


30
25
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Typical prediction tables are unreliable, in my experience. You might want to add about 10 minutes to the predicted marathon times based on other races, unless your training has been off-the-charts superb.
2013-07-10 11:47 PM
in reply to: jdl2012

Pro
6520
50001000500
Bellingham, WA
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
No way a 5k time is going to be any indication of a marathon time.  5k to 10k, maybe, given that you have trained properly for the increased distance but 5k to marathon is a whole different thing.  Even HM times to marathon predictions based on calculators have been sketchy in my experience.
2013-07-11 12:08 AM
in reply to: popsracer

Pro
15655
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Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Wait.....are you trying to say my 15 year old CAN'T run a 2:39 marathon? Laughing


2013-07-11 12:18 AM
in reply to: jdl2012

Veteran
360
1001001002525
Waukegan, IL
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
I was shooting for a good marathon time in May. It was my first marathon. I ran it in 3:21:28 Not a bad time but not what I was hoping.

My McMillan prediction from my HM 5 weeks before the marathon (1:28:13) said that I should hit a 3:05 marathon.

There were other issues, but there are many more opportunities in a marathon for something to go wrong.

For what it's worth, 2 weeks after the marathon I ran a local 5k and went sub 19. Inexperience at the marathon level got me....I'll have another go next year. McMIllan said that 5k time should put me just under 3:00 for a mary.

So I guess I'm agreeing with everyone else. Predicting performance over 26.2 miles based on a performance over 3.1 miles is tricky. It's possible...if you are as prepared for the marathon as you are for the 5k....and the conditions are right....and nutrition goes perfect...and there's a tail wind.

Anyway...good luck!

- Joel
2013-07-11 3:38 AM
in reply to: Left Brain

Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon

Originally posted by Left Brain Wait.....are you trying to say my 15 year old CAN'T run a 2:39 marathon? Laughing

Or that the top 400m sprinters can't run a 2:01 marathon (based on McMillian's).

2013-07-11 5:42 AM
in reply to: jdl2012

Champion
9407
500020002000100100100100
Montague Gold Mines, Nova Scotia
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
I'm not sure about this calculator but I have some experience with the McMillan calculator and use Daniels' VDot work quite often. The calcuators are generally going to be most accurate when the distances being compared are similar (i.e. 5k to 10k will be much better than 5k to marathon) and they also assume that an athlete has trained properly for the distance. They are not suggesting that an athlete who can run a XX:XX 5k can go out and run a Y:YY:YY marathon tomorrow but rather with a proper marathon training program, they should be able to run at that level.

Again, not sure about this calcuator but Daniels' VDot tables are based upon extensive research and not simply assumptions based upon what an athlete should be able to do. As with most research, it is based on averages so any one athlete may find that they overperform at one distance and underperform at another according to the predictions but they should get you in the ballpark (again, assuming proper training).

Another confounding factor when stretchng things out to the marathon distance is that very few age group athletes will ever properly train for a marathon and, as such, most will underperform the predictions for the marathon distance as they do not have the training to support that pace.

Shane
2013-07-11 5:45 AM
in reply to: gsmacleod

Pro
5892
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, New Hampshire
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
x1000 Shane, right as usual!
2013-07-11 7:26 AM
in reply to: audiojan

Expert
972
5001001001001002525
Falls Church
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
I have used the McMillan calculator to calculate 'backwards' from marathon and 1/2 marathon times to 5K, 10K, and 10 miles.  Found it to be remarkably close for me.


2013-07-11 8:02 AM
in reply to: jdl2012

Master
1460
10001001001001002525
Burlington, Vermont
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Originally posted by jdl2012

http://www.marathonguide.com/fitnesscalcs/predictcalc.cfm

what do you think?

Based on this a 19:30 - 5k should qualify for Boston beating the 3:10 threshold.



The McMillan calculator has worked fairly well for me. But I need a recent half marathon to be accurate with the marathon prediction. My 5k times will always predict a faster marathon. When run focused, I'm primarily training for the marathon distance and will join other races as they appear. If I'm in the 19:30 ballpark for a 5k (about where I'd predict I'd be right now), I'd probably be training for a 3:15:xx marathon goal. Again, that's in the midst of a marathon build.

Recent bests for me include a 19:01 (Spring 2013 - on the track) and a 3:13:xx marathon (Fall 2013).

YMMV
2013-07-11 10:06 AM
in reply to: jdl2012

Extreme Veteran
1001
1000
Highlands Ranch, Colorado
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
From what I have seen using a 5K to predict Marathon times is very inaccurate. Also, formulas like McMillan are based upon optimal training (60-70 mpw for marathons) for the distance that you are racing. The longer the race that you plug into a formula the more accurate it will be. I found that the best distance in the formula for me is 10 miles.

Two years ago I averaged 70 mpw training for Boston 2011, I ran a 10 mile race in February and plugged it into McMillan. The McMillan predictions were within 15 seconds of my April HM (PR) and 45 seconds of my Boston Marathon (PR). I beat the predicted time both times.

When I plugged my 5K time into the McMillan formula it predicted a marathon time that was 5 minutes faster than what I wound up running.

2013-07-11 5:10 PM
in reply to: gsmacleod


15

Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Agree with Shane also. I have found that Daniels VDOT formula has very closely predicted all my times from 5k to the marathon but ONLY when I have properly trained, paced, executed, used proper nutrition, etc. for the longer distances.
2013-07-11 8:17 PM
in reply to: gsmacleod

Subject: ...
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2013-07-12 6:30 AM
in reply to: jdl2012

Pro
5361
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Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon

yeah, shane is correct.

the McMillan prediction does work.  It's predicted my marathon time form 1/2 marathon times remarkably accurately.  Keep in mind that it tells you what you can achieve- not what you will.  There's a lot that goes into a marathon, not least of which is the conditions of the race, weather, wind, elevation, climbing, hydration, nutrition and proper pacing.  But if you nail them all, and you push your body to the limits- the McMillan prediction can be scary accurate.

oh, if you want to hit your McMillan prediction... plan on it hurting.  for me... a LOT.  



2013-07-12 7:09 AM
in reply to: kathfair

Member
522
500
Saint Paul, MN
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Originally posted by kathfair

Typical prediction tables are unreliable, in my experience. You might want to add about 10 minutes to the predicted marathon times based on other races, unless your training has been off-the-charts superb.


I put in the 5k time I ran in May 2012, and the marathon time it predicted was 10 minutes faster than the one I ran in October 2012.
2013-07-12 9:19 AM
in reply to: rick4657

Not a Coach
11473
5000500010001001001001002525
Media, PA
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Originally posted by rick4657

From what I have seen using a 5K to predict Marathon times is very inaccurate.

When I plugged my 5K time into the McMillan formula it predicted a marathon time that was 5 minutes faster than what I wound up running.




You find a 2-3% margin of error on an estimate like this to be very inaccurate? I think people's expectations may be a bit too high. From what I have seen, the calculator is a very good GUIDE on what one can expect ASSUMING equivalent training for the different distance and good race execution/pacing. Obviously, the closer the race distance you are extrapolating (and the better the training) to your goal race, the better the estimate the calculator will produce.
2013-07-12 10:28 AM
in reply to: JohnnyKay

Pro
6011
50001000
Camp Hill, Pennsylvania
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon

Originally posted by JohnnyKay
Originally posted by rick4657 From what I have seen using a 5K to predict Marathon times is very inaccurate. When I plugged my 5K time into the McMillan formula it predicted a marathon time that was 5 minutes faster than what I wound up running.
You find a 2-3% margin of error on an estimate like this to be very inaccurate? I think people's expectations may be a bit too high. From what I have seen, the calculator is a very good GUIDE on what one can expect ASSUMING equivalent training for the different distance and good race execution/pacing. Obviously, the closer the race distance you are extrapolating (and the better the training) to your goal race, the better the estimate the calculator will produce.

x2.  JK and Shane are correct.  The predictors work very well for what they are and how they are intended to be used.  The posts in this thread who state that McMillan is inaccurate or unreliable all go on to give examples that either indicate they are accurate or don't apply, because it's not how they should be used.

IME, McMillan is a very good tool for making predictions, especially if the input race and planned race are closer together in distance.

BTW, all predictors also assume identical conditions re: temperature, humidity, terrain, etc.

2013-07-12 11:05 AM
in reply to: TriMyBest

Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Originally posted by TriMyBest

Originally posted by JohnnyKay
Originally posted by rick4657 From what I have seen using a 5K to predict Marathon times is very inaccurate. When I plugged my 5K time into the McMillan formula it predicted a marathon time that was 5 minutes faster than what I wound up running.
You find a 2-3% margin of error on an estimate like this to be very inaccurate? I think people's expectations may be a bit too high. From what I have seen, the calculator is a very good GUIDE on what one can expect ASSUMING equivalent training for the different distance and good race execution/pacing. Obviously, the closer the race distance you are extrapolating (and the better the training) to your goal race, the better the estimate the calculator will produce.

x2.  JK and Shane are correct.  The predictors work very well for what they are and how they are intended to be used.  The posts in this thread who state that McMillan is inaccurate or unreliable all go on to give examples that either indicate they are accurate or don't apply, because it's not how they should be used.

IME, McMillan is a very good tool for making predictions, especially if the input race and planned race are closer together in distance.

BTW, all predictors also assume identical conditions re: temperature, humidity, terrain, etc.

I agree...my comment was only poking fun at the fact that the OP was trying to extrapolate a marathon time from a 5k time...not that the calculators themselves were not useful given you know their limitations.

2013-07-12 11:20 AM
in reply to: Jason N

Pro
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50001000
Camp Hill, Pennsylvania
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Originally posted by Jason N
Originally posted by TriMyBest

Originally posted by JohnnyKay
Originally posted by rick4657 From what I have seen using a 5K to predict Marathon times is very inaccurate. When I plugged my 5K time into the McMillan formula it predicted a marathon time that was 5 minutes faster than what I wound up running.
You find a 2-3% margin of error on an estimate like this to be very inaccurate? I think people's expectations may be a bit too high. From what I have seen, the calculator is a very good GUIDE on what one can expect ASSUMING equivalent training for the different distance and good race execution/pacing. Obviously, the closer the race distance you are extrapolating (and the better the training) to your goal race, the better the estimate the calculator will produce.

x2.  JK and Shane are correct.  The predictors work very well for what they are and how they are intended to be used.  The posts in this thread who state that McMillan is inaccurate or unreliable all go on to give examples that either indicate they are accurate or don't apply, because it's not how they should be used.

IME, McMillan is a very good tool for making predictions, especially if the input race and planned race are closer together in distance.

BTW, all predictors also assume identical conditions re: temperature, humidity, terrain, etc.

I agree...my comment was only poking fun at the fact that the OP was trying to extrapolate a marathon time from a 5k time...not that the calculators themselves were not useful given you know their limitations.

I knew what you were saying, Jason.  No sarc font needed for that one.



2013-07-12 11:39 AM
in reply to: TriMyBest

Regular
194
100252525
Morton IL
Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
I would really like this to be accurate My 1 and only 1/2 mary was April 1:53, was still getting in shape/ was out of shape. Says my 5K around 24 minutes which it was at the time, and my marathon would be 3:56. My 5K is now more like low 21s. Not greedy for my first full 26.2, I would take the 3:56, just want to be under 4 hours the first time.
2013-07-12 11:52 AM
in reply to: Jason N

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2013-07-12 12:01 PM
in reply to: jdl2012


24

Subject: RE: Predicting possible marathon time from 5k, 10k, 1/2 marathon
Never worked for me - I was always faster over the 5km/10km (15:30/32:50) - my best marathon 2:48. Guys who I beat by a couple of mins over the shorter distances would beat me by 10 mins over the full distance.
2013-07-12 12:08 PM
in reply to: axelle

Subject: ...
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