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The kona goal ? Out of reach ? (Page 8)
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 2013-10-16 7:42 AM in reply to: TriBoilermaker |
Pro  5761     Bartlett, TN |  Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ?I honestly believe that my shot at a KQ would have been significantly better if I had started training for triathlons back when I was in my early 20 instead of my mid 30's. When I first started y goal was just to get to an IM and finish, now with that being completed, my next goal is to beat my previous time. While going to Kona may have been my "goal/dream" when I started it has certainly changed for a variety of reasons. I played some type of sport all my life and my body is now not capable of a KQ time. I do admire the people that still have the goal and the desire to try to make it to Kona, and I wish them luck. I think the majority of athletes that race triathlons have something in them that makes them want to race and do well but we all know our limitations deep down, we may not want to own up to them, and as men, we usually do not give in to our limiters, but I say this, if you think you can, go out and give it your best shot, do the work and keep your head up. No one ever faulted a guy for trying. |
| 2013-10-16 7:59 AM in reply to: Dan-L |
Champion 9407 Montague Gold Mines, Nova Scotia | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by Dan-L ok, I can go with that. There have been claims on this thread of needing 8:30's and that 90% of people on this site couldn't qualify for Kona. And I don't believe that. But yes, for some hard work won't be enough. However, I don't think there are many people at all that get to the point where it's their genetics that impede further progress. I agree that few will ever reach their genetic potential but it is important to remember that genetics not only determines one's potential but also the starting point. There is someone who has a signature here that says something along the lines of my floor is someone else's ceiling. You can update your tweet now! Done. Shane |
| 2013-10-16 8:05 AM in reply to: Fred D |
Elite 3779 Ontario | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by Fred D Originally posted by GoFaster . Neil, the interesting part of this discussion for me is this..... Are you willing to take the risks necessary to unlock your potential? I am to a degree, then again I am not at the same time. Make sense? Originally posted by Fred D - to me his results are yet more solid proof of how important genetics is for being KQ+ fast. A 2 hr IM improvement in one year from that already fairly fast level in 1999 is more than you would expect from pure coaching alone if you really were a run-of-the-mill athlete with 12-15hr IM potential. As I mentioned back earlier, people usually already 'believe what they believe' in these sorts of nature vs. nurture discussions. What *I* was trying to say was that it has been done, i.e.; slower initial time to fast times and we don't really know that Dan-L isn't just like that. Maybe he has great Genetics too? I am guessing, but didn't Thomas Gerlach also have a slower first IM and now races pro? He likely isn't as genetically gifted as Gordo, but it's not crazy talk to think of going from a slower time to a KQ and better time. The nature nurture stuff you guys can argue to death as most folks already have made up their mind on this one. I don't disagree that people can improve dramatically over their first IM, or that the first IM is a predictor of future potential, but if I'm not mistaken Dan stated that this was his third IM, and while only training 7 hours a week netted a good result it was also 3.5 hours behind the AG winner who went sub 9. (Assumes it was the Copenhagen Ironman). Gordo improved his IM by 30min from Penticton to Kona - in only 2 months, and continued dropping it from there. If I look at myself, I know that I have a predisposition to being able to run well. Light weight, long legs - good genetics. I've managed run times that are unremarkable, but are still much faster than others who have logged far more miles, and been at this a lot longer than me. Am I anywhere close to my potential as a runner - nope, but I have the good sense to realize that I don't run past people because of all the training I've put in, but run faster than them despite my lack of training. We'll see if a good 6 month block of running actually pays off and I start to see if I can unlock more of that potential. Like you, only to a certain degree. You commented a couple of years ago that if I dropped Tri's and focused on running, I'd probably be a decent runner, and I agree with you - but I like Tri's, so I purposely give up on some of my running potential. That said I've hardly touched my bike or been to the pool in the past couple of months, just slowly building an ok run base...and I thought I was going to focus on the bike this winter. Come Spring I'm going to be willing to push myself a bit and see what happens. |
| 2013-10-16 8:14 AM in reply to: 0 |
Champion 7136 Knoxville area | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by Left Brain Lee, yes......he had never swam a lap in his life. Had some swim lessons at the Y as a young kid, swam a lot at the lake when we wen, we have a backyard above ground pool...but never a lap. When he started his 100 free was 1:40. He now swims a 100 fly in 1:02. (that took 14 months since he'd never tried to swim fly and had to learn the stroke) He started on his swim club with the "high school prep" group....he swims on the National squad now.....less that 1 year between. My only point was it is misleading to tell a mid 20-30something person who has never swam/had lessons that if they aren't swimming a sub 20 oly in 8 months they don't have the genes. Not figuring in having to learn how to swim freestyle (if he swam a 1:40 AND didn't know the stroke beforehand...well that's not freak genes...that's just freak) can save a LOT of time in that estimate. overall I do agree with you, but some of the statements "sound" misleading. Edited by Leegoocrap 2013-10-16 8:18 AM |
| 2013-10-16 8:19 AM in reply to: Leegoocrap |
Member 326 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Well, I am going to test this out. I am turning 45 in January. I am going to give it 5 years of very serious training. It will be with a coach, with power, the whole nine yards. I am 5'6" and 130lbs so that may be a limiting factor, but who knows unless I try. I am single and have no kids and I have a fairly good job with 6+ weeks of holidays each year and a good pay check. I am going to see if it is doable by a mere mortal. See you in 5 years. Dwayne |
| 2013-10-16 8:27 AM in reply to: DeVinci13 |
Elite 7783 PEI, Canada | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by DeVinci13 Well, I am going to test this out. I am turning 45 in January. I am going to give it 5 years of very serious training. It will be with a coach, with power, the whole nine yards. I am 5'6" and 130lbs so that may be a limiting factor, but who knows unless I try. I am single and have no kids and I have a fairly good job with 6+ weeks of holidays each year and a good pay check. I am going to see if it is doable by a mere mortal. See you in 5 years. Dwayne Awesome! Please provide regular updates. Seriously, I hope you can give it a good shot and pull it off. |
| 2013-10-16 8:46 AM in reply to: Bigdave001 |
| 66 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? There is a post on ST doing a poll on KQers. Many parameters in it but I focused on a couple of those and analized the data. The paramenters I analyzed are -- Average training hours per week -- Relevant athletic background (typically some elite sport or several years in one of the 3 sports) -- Years in the spot (not in the poll but looked at years on ST) 18 responses which is not much and of course there are many potential issues with this analisis but this is what I found: Average training hours per week: Average 15, median 15, 1st quartile 13, 3rd quartile 17 Years in sport: Average 5,3, median 5,5, 1st quartile 3,25, 3rd quartile 6,75 Relevant athletic background: 72% yes (of which ~30% was elitish) So what does this indicate (the way I interpret the data). I am not pretending to be conclusive but at least the data should take out some of the guess work: -- Hard work is required to KQ, genetics alone does not cut it alone or even close (1st quartile at 13 hours which I assume most people even in the sport of triathlon would define as significant and hard AND given the 3-7 years in the sport for the KQers it is probably fair to assume there has been at least a couple of years at that volume) -- Having an athletic background is helpful but not a prerequsite (~70% has an athletic background) -- Genetics plays a role but it is minor (~30% had an ~elite level in a sport which indicates strong "sports genetics") This leads me to believe that KQing is 70% hard work and 30% genetics. So can everyone KQ? No not everyone, but a pretty good share of people that decide and successfully dedicate multiple years of hard work has a good shot at KQing. Again, a very small sample and lots of possible errors but |
| 2013-10-16 8:48 AM in reply to: DeVinci13 |
Member 1748 Exton, PA | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by DeVinci13 Well, I am going to test this out. I am turning 45 in January. I am going to give it 5 years of very serious training. It will be with a coach, with power, the whole nine yards. I am 5'6" and 130lbs so that may be a limiting factor, but who knows unless I try. I am single and have no kids and I have a fairly good job with 6+ weeks of holidays each year and a good pay check. I am going to see if it is doable by a mere mortal. See you in 5 years. Dwayne Great! I would suggest you base line your health and ability now and keep a log over this journey. I keep mine in an excel file on my pc, many time it is easier to see things when you graph them vs looking at data points. Any of my poor performance over the last several years can easily be attributed to a decrease in training. If you do a work you may be able to find some universities or sports medicine facilities willing to do some free VO2 max tests on you over the coarse of your 5 year plan. Just to stir the pot, what is your athletic background? And have you ever been tested and told you are genetically superior? |
| 2013-10-16 8:48 AM in reply to: axteraa |
| 66 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by axteraa Originally posted by DeVinci13 Well, I am going to test this out. I am turning 45 in January. I am going to give it 5 years of very serious training. It will be with a coach, with power, the whole nine yards. I am 5'6" and 130lbs so that may be a limiting factor, but who knows unless I try. I am single and have no kids and I have a fairly good job with 6+ weeks of holidays each year and a good pay check. I am going to see if it is doable by a mere mortal. See you in 5 years. Dwayne Awesome! Please provide regular updates. Seriously, I hope you can give it a good shot and pull it off. Love your attitude!!! Pls see my post above with the analysis, if I am right you will be in Kona in 3-7 years unless you are an outlier. |
| 2013-10-16 8:51 AM in reply to: DeVinci13 |
Champion 7036 Sarasota, FL | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by DeVinci13 Well, I am going to test this out. I am turning 45 in January. I am going to give it 5 years of very serious training. It will be with a coach, with power, the whole nine yards. I am 5'6" and 130lbs so that may be a limiting factor, but who knows unless I try. I am single and have no kids and I have a fairly good job with 6+ weeks of holidays each year and a good pay check. I am going to see if it is doable by a mere mortal. See you in 5 years. Dwayne LOL. Not as much a limiter as being 5'-7" and 175lbs. Seriously, best of luck with your training. Looking forward to following your progress. Mark
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| 2013-10-16 8:55 AM in reply to: DeVinci13 |
Veteran 660 Northern Illinois | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by DeVinci13 Good luck to you and I hope you enjoy the journey!! Well, I am going to test this out. I am turning 45 in January. I am going to give it 5 years of very serious training. It will be with a coach, with power, the whole nine yards. I am 5'6" and 130lbs so that may be a limiting factor, but who knows unless I try. I am single and have no kids and I have a fairly good job with 6+ weeks of holidays each year and a good pay check. I am going to see if it is doable by a mere mortal. See you in 5 years. Dwayne Single No Kids Good paying Job with lots of vacation time You certainly have the "lifestyle" for a KQ!! |
| 2013-10-16 9:08 AM in reply to: Leegoocrap |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by Leegoocrap Originally posted by Left Brain Lee, yes......he had never swam a lap in his life. Had some swim lessons at the Y as a young kid, swam a lot at the lake when we wen, we have a backyard above ground pool...but never a lap. When he started his 100 free was 1:40. He now swims a 100 fly in 1:02. (that took 14 months since he'd never tried to swim fly and had to learn the stroke) He started on his swim club with the "high school prep" group....he swims on the National squad now.....less that 1 year between. My only point was it is misleading to tell a mid 20-30something person who has never swam/had lessons that if they aren't swimming a sub 20 oly in 8 months they don't have the genes. Not figuring in having to learn how to swim freestyle (if he swam a 1:40 AND didn't know the stroke beforehand...well that's not freak genes...that's just freak) can save a LOT of time in that estimate. overall I do agree with you, but some of the statements "sound" misleading. My point, and I realize now it didn't come across right, was that these genetically gifted animals have another advantage over someone who just "works hard"....and that is they don't have to work nearly as hard in alot of cases, so their bodies aren't as prone to breaking down as the rest of us from overuse. Just another way that genetics plays a role. I realize you haven't met my kid and it sounds crazy.....Switch can testify. My other point is that he's not nearly alone. These folks are just now finding triathlon......the growth of really fast and gifted people into the sport is tremendous. It's going to be very hard to stay close to that pointy end as time goes on. In fact, it will become impossible for most of us. |
| 2013-10-16 9:09 AM in reply to: Bigdave001 |
| 631 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Obviously body size plays a role but I would think it is muscle composition and V02 max that drives alot of the genetics benefits. |
| 2013-10-16 9:28 AM in reply to: andreasjs |
| 1660 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by andreasjs There is a post on ST doing a poll on KQers. Many parameters in it but I focused on a couple of those and analized the data. The paramenters I analyzed are -- Average training hours per week -- Relevant athletic background (typically some elite sport or several years in one of the 3 sports) -- Years in the spot (not in the poll but looked at years on ST) 18 responses which is not much and of course there are many potential issues with this analisis but this is what I found: Average training hours per week: Average 15, median 15, 1st quartile 13, 3rd quartile 17 Years in sport: Average 5,3, median 5,5, 1st quartile 3,25, 3rd quartile 6,75 Relevant athletic background: 72% yes (of which ~30% was elitish) So what does this indicate (the way I interpret the data). I am not pretending to be conclusive but at least the data should take out some of the guess work: -- Hard work is required to KQ, genetics alone does not cut it alone or even close (1st quartile at 13 hours which I assume most people even in the sport of triathlon would define as significant and hard AND given the 3-7 years in the sport for the KQers it is probably fair to assume there has been at least a couple of years at that volume) -- Having an athletic background is helpful but not a prerequsite (~70% has an athletic background) -- Genetics plays a role but it is minor (~30% had an ~elite level in a sport which indicates strong "sports genetics") This leads me to believe that KQing is 70% hard work and 30% genetics. So can everyone KQ? No not everyone, but a pretty good share of people that decide and successfully dedicate multiple years of hard work has a good shot at KQing. Again, a very small sample and lots of possible errors but HUGE possible errors. You are looking at a poll of KQers from ST. That poll excluded the 97% of other triathletes who did not qualify for Kona. So amongst those top 3% triathletes, maybe whatever analysis you'd like to do might hold. Reality is that for triathletes as a whole, you're talking about an accomplishment that's upper 3%, from a very hard working group. Sorry, but there's no way you can convince me that you take 100 random triathletes, and you can take 70 them to Kona at current standards, regardless of how much they train and how good their coaching is. |
| 2013-10-16 9:31 AM in reply to: Bigdave001 |
Veteran 274 State College, PA | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Just like qualifying for Boston, if you wait long enough eventually you'll be old enough to make it just by finishing. |
| 2013-10-16 9:33 AM in reply to: jford2309 |
| 1660 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by jford2309 I honestly believe that my shot at a KQ would have been significantly better if I had started training for triathlons back when I was in my early 20 instead of my mid 30's. When I first started y goal was just to get to an IM and finish, now with that being completed, my next goal is to beat my previous time. While going to Kona may have been my "goal/dream" when I started it has certainly changed for a variety of reasons. I played some type of sport all my life and my body is now not capable of a KQ time. I do admire the people that still have the goal and the desire to try to make it to Kona, and I wish them luck. I think the majority of athletes that race triathlons have something in them that makes them want to race and do well but we all know our limitations deep down, we may not want to own up to them, and as men, we usually do not give in to our limiters, but I say this, if you think you can, go out and give it your best shot, do the work and keep your head up. No one ever faulted a guy for trying. I think this is another widespread but false assumption, with the exception of the swimming technique component. To KQ you need to outperform 97%+ of your triathlon peers, not achieve a hard-set time. Thus, it does not matter at what age you start the sport (ok, unless you're old enough that you're in Sister Madonna Buder's division!) Most coaches say that athletes who train seriously can expect to see maximal gains in 7 years of serious training. A lot of senior masters record holders in running never started running until they were 40+, some even 50+, before setting national and even international world age group world records. Swimming has a big technical component that definitely conveys advantage if you started in youth seriously, but even that is likely overcome in triathlon by serious training for that 7 year window in the masters groups. Bottom line, don't look at your age as a limiter to KQ - it's not the age that's the limiter. It's the other things, be it genetics, training, time, or a combination of all of them. |
| 2013-10-16 9:48 AM in reply to: andreasjs |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by andreasjs There is a post on ST doing a poll on KQers. Many parameters in it but I focused on a couple of those and analized the data. The paramenters I analyzed are -- Average training hours per week -- Relevant athletic background (typically some elite sport or several years in one of the 3 sports) -- Years in the spot (not in the poll but looked at years on ST) 18 responses which is not much and of course there are many potential issues with this analisis but this is what I found: Average training hours per week: Average 15, median 15, 1st quartile 13, 3rd quartile 17 Years in sport: Average 5,3, median 5,5, 1st quartile 3,25, 3rd quartile 6,75 Relevant athletic background: 72% yes (of which ~30% was elitish) So what does this indicate (the way I interpret the data). I am not pretending to be conclusive but at least the data should take out some of the guess work: -- Hard work is required to KQ, genetics alone does not cut it alone or even close (1st quartile at 13 hours which I assume most people even in the sport of triathlon would define as significant and hard AND given the 3-7 years in the sport for the KQers it is probably fair to assume there has been at least a couple of years at that volume) -- Having an athletic background is helpful but not a prerequsite (~70% has an athletic background) -- Genetics plays a role but it is minor (~30% had an ~elite level in a sport which indicates strong "sports genetics") This leads me to believe that KQing is 70% hard work and 30% genetics. So can everyone KQ? No not everyone, but a pretty good share of people that decide and successfully dedicate multiple years of hard work has a good shot at KQing. Again, a very small sample and lots of possible errors but Did you somehow take from this whole discussion that ANYONE was advocating that someone could KQ on genetics alone WITHOUT hard work? By the way.....for KQ qualifying, 15 h/p/w isn't THAT hard. |
| 2013-10-16 9:51 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
| 66 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? No |
| 2013-10-16 9:56 AM in reply to: 0 |
| 66 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Agree that 15 hours per week is not THAT hard but it is a pretty decent amount of volume to fit into most people´s life. Especially, when it is not 15 HPW once in a while but on average week in and week out for several years. Let us say it is a 4h bike, 2h run and 1h swim on the weekends. That leaves 8 hours for M-F. Assume a recovery day or very light day, then we are speaking close to 2 hours on a regular day. That is probably one workout in the morning and one in the evening. Assume 21 hours for mandatory stuff like work, commuting, cooking, showering etc - then once you have done your training you have at best 1 hour left to do other non-try stuff. That means that most of the non-weekend days you are living and breathing triathlon day in and day out - and if someone would ask you what you were doing in the weekend, the first thing that comes to your mind is probably "training" although it was "only" 7 hours. Edited by andreasjs 2013-10-16 9:59 AM |
| 2013-10-16 10:03 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
Not a Coach 11473 Media, PA | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by Left Brain My other point is that he's not nearly alone. These folks are just now finding triathlon......the growth of really fast and gifted people into the sport is tremendous. It's going to be very hard to stay close to that pointy end as time goes on. In fact, it will become impossible for most of us.
I'm an AGer. They are never catching me. |
| 2013-10-16 10:20 AM in reply to: andreasjs |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by andreasjs Agree that 15 hours per week is not THAT hard but it is a pretty decent amount of volume to fit into most people´s life. Especially, when it is not 15 HPW once in a while but on average week in and week out for several years. Let us say it is a 4h bike, 2h run and 1h swim on the weekends. That leaves 8 hours for M-F. Assume a recovery day or very light day, then we are speaking close to 2 hours on a regular day. That is probably one workout in the morning and one in the evening. Assume 21 hours for mandatory stuff like work, commuting, cooking, showering etc - then once you have done your training you have at best 1 hour left to do other non-try stuff. That means that most of the non-weekend days you are living and breathing triathlon day in and day out - and if someone would ask you what you were doing in the weekend, the first thing that comes to your mind is probably "training" although it was "only" 7 hours. LOL.....thanks.....I know what a 15-20 hour week looks like for training. What we are down to is that you basically need to AG podium at an IM event in order to KQ. You want me to believe that's not left for the most elite among us? And you want me to believe that the most elite among us don't have some great genetic gifts? I'm not going there. |
| 2013-10-16 10:20 AM in reply to: JohnnyKay |
Pro 15655 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by JohnnyKay Originally posted by Left Brain My other point is that he's not nearly alone. These folks are just now finding triathlon......the growth of really fast and gifted people into the sport is tremendous. It's going to be very hard to stay close to that pointy end as time goes on. In fact, it will become impossible for most of us.
I'm an AGer. They are never catching me. Run fast!!! |
| 2013-10-16 10:39 AM in reply to: Bigdave001 |
| 631 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? I also think that if you are genetically gifted it is pretty obvious early in your sports career. For most that would have been at an early age but even if you start as an adult you are going to be ahead of people that have been training but do not have the genetics. Obviously the exception to this would be the adult that started late and need to lose a lot of weight. There genetics might not be apparent. |
| 2013-10-16 10:41 AM in reply to: Left Brain |
| 66 | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? I do not want you to believe anything :-) Feel free to use the data if you want and draw the conclusions you believe the data can provide if any. |
| 2013-10-16 10:48 AM in reply to: JohnnyKay |
Veteran 660 Northern Illinois | Subject: RE: The kona goal ? Out of reach ? Originally posted by JohnnyKay That was the point I was trying to make . I agree with LB that genetics is a huge factor, but how fast some 15 year old kid is doesn't have anything to do with a 45-49 age grouper getting a KQ. Unless you are trying to get an OA, how fast these young kids are have nothing to do with it. We know they are fast, that point has been made many times over and over.Originally posted by Left Brain My other point is that he's not nearly alone. These folks are just now finding triathlon......the growth of really fast and gifted people into the sport is tremendous. It's going to be very hard to stay close to that pointy end as time goes on. In fact, it will become impossible for most of us.
I'm an AGer. They are never catching me. |
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